NFL Predictions 2023

Kevin Hanson (@EDSFootball)

Before the start of the season, I will post my division-by-division predictions for the 2023 NFL regular season and postseason.

Instead of projecting an outright winner and loser in all 272 regular-season games, I've assigned a win probability to each team in every game and totaled them up.

2023 NFL Predictions: AFC East

With that said, here are our AFC East projections for each team including their win total.

1. Buffalo Bills - Projected Wins: 10.32

The Bills have clinched three consecutive AFC East titles while finishing with four consecutive 10-win seasons. Since taking over as head coach, Sean McDermott has led the Bills to the postseason in five of six seasons. While they are the team to beat, this division is arguably the strongest from top to bottom in the NFL.

It all starts with Josh Allen, who has a 17-game average over the past three seasons of 4,591 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 13 interceptions to go along with 675 rushing yards and seven more touchdowns. The dual-threat talent has flourished since the team traded for Stefon Diggs, who has 338/4,189/29 receiving during that three-year span. The addition of Dalton Kincaid, their first-round pick, to join Dawson Knox, James Cook, and Gabe Davis round out a talented group of pass catchers. Diggs recently talked up Davis, saying he's "damn near WR1 in my eyes." Ranking second in the NFL in total offense and scoring offense last season, the Bills will once again have one of the league's most explosive offenses.

The defense lost Terrell Edmunds, who signed a free-agent deal with the Chicago Bears, but the team has finished first or second in scoring defense in three of the past four seasons. They have finished top six in total defense in four of the past five seasons. Because of their strength of both sides of the ball, it's not surprising that they have led the NFL in scoring differential in back-to-back seasons.

Despite the challenge the Bills will face from the rest of the division, our expectation is that they will win their fourth consecutive division title. Given the expectations of the team and fan base, what will really matter is how deep into the postseason they will go. (It's been 30 years — the 1993 season — since the Bills have made it to the Super Bowl.)

MORE: Buffalo Bills 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: AFC East

2023 NFL Predictions: AFC North

Here are our AFC North projections for each team including their win total.

1. Cincinnati Bengals - Projected Wins: 10.34

The Bengals have one of the league's best offenses — top seven in scoring in back-to-back seasons — and it all begins with Joe Burrow. Although Burrow sustained a calf injury early in camp, he says he is "ready to go" for Week 1. Cincinnati has a talented trio of receivers with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Both Chase and Higgins eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark last season, and they are arguably the two most talented receivers in the division. Joe Mixon is back after accepting a paycut, and the team upgraded its offensive line by signing Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. In other words, it should be business as usual for Burrow & Co.

Safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell had eight of the team's 13 interceptions last season, but both departed via free agency in March. Former first-rounder Dax Hill will take on an expanded role, the team signed Nick Scott in free agency and drafted Jordan Battle in the third round. In addition, the Bengals have a talented cornerback room with Chidobe Awuzie, Cam Taylor-Britt (potential breakout candidate), Mike Hilton and second-round rookie DJ Turner. With Trey Hendrickson, DJ Reader and Logan Wilson anchoring their front-seven, the Bengals should have a strong defense in 2023.

From 1990-2020, the Bengals won only one playoff game (Wild Card round against the Houston Oilers in 1990). During that span, their playoff record was 1-8. Since then, however, they have gone deep into the postseason losing in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and in the AFC Championship Game last year.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: AFC North

2023 NFL Predictions: AFC South

Here are our AFC South projections for each team including their win total.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - Projected Wins: 9.51

The Jaguars have the fewest wins (49) over the past decade, but they are also reigning AFC South champs. Heading into 2023, things look even better for the defending champions.

While Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, had to endure (read: waste) a season with Urban Meyer, he made tremendous strides within the 2022 season. Doug Pederson was head coach of Philadelphia from 2016, the year the Eagles drafted Carson Wentz, until 2020, and Wentz had an MVP-caliber season (third in MVP voting despite three missed games) in their second year together. Back to Lawrence, here were his splits:

All of the top weapons (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram) are back, and Calvin Ridley (90/1374/9 in last full season) replaces Marvin Jones.

The Jaguars have nearly doubled their sack total over the past two years (18 in 2020 to 35 in 2022), but nobody will compare this iteration of Jacksonville's defense with the 2017 "Sacksonville" version (55 sacks). That said, Travon Walker, the first overall pick in 2022, could make significant strides in his second season and Josh Allen's 68 QB pressures (per PFF) were 10th-most in the NFL in 2022. Meanwhile, Tyson Campbell has developed into one of the best young cornerbacks in the league.

While their offense will pace the team, they should be able to go deep into the playoffs with continued development of their young players on defense.

MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: AFC South

2023 NFL Predictions: AFC West

Here are our AFC West projections for each team including their win total.

1. Kansas City Chiefs - Projected Wins: 10.7

The Chiefs are the defending champs! They have the league's best quarterback and reigning NFL MVP, and one of the best coaches of all time.

Two big challenges could be the absence of Travis Kelce and/or Chris Jones. Kelce has seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons heading into his age-34 season. While he's been incredibly durable, the offense centers around Kelce and he's currently dealing with a hyper-extended knee. It's possible that only causes him to miss one game, if any, but his status is a reminder of how much his absence could impact the offense.

JuJu Smith-Schuster departed in free agency, and the team is likely to rely on Skyy Moore to lead the receiving corps in receiving and he posted a 22/250/0 line as a second-round rookie last year. The Chiefs also have one of the league's best offensive lines — an elite interior line returns and will be joined by newcomers Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor to play tackle.

Meanwhile, Jones was a 2022 AP First-Team All-Pro selection and had a dominant season with 15.5 sacks, the second time of his career with exactly 15.5 sacks). Per PFF, he led all interior defenders with 77 total pressures last season, and the next closest was Dexter Lawrence (63). The Chiefs will have a mediocre defense for as long as Jones continues his holdout.

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: AFC West

2023 NFL Predictions: NFC East

Here are our NFC East projections for each team including their win total.

1. Philadelphia Eagles - Projected Wins: 10.71

Philadelphia's offense was nearly unstoppable in 2022. Jalen Hurts is an elite dual-threat talent, and he set career bests as a passer in completion percentage (66.5%), passing yards (3,701, 8.0 Y/A), touchdowns (22, 4.8%), and passer rating (101.5). For the second season in a row, he rushed for more 760-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. Things were too easy at times, as Hurts threw only 60 (13%) of 460 pass attempts in the fourth quarter.

A.J. Brown had a career season (88/1,496/11), DeVonta Smith was even better in year two (95/1,196/7) and Dallas Goedert set career highs receptions (4.6) and yards (58.5) per game.

Although they lost Javon Hargrave, Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in free agency, they still have a loaded defense. The Eagles had a nearly perfect draft, based on consensus NFL draft grades. The Eagles continue to load up on Georgia defenders, by taking Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round (and Kelee Ringo in the fourth round) in 2023.

MORE: Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: NFC East

2023 NFL Predictions: NFC North

Here are our NFC North projections for each team including their win total.

1. Detroit Lions - Projected Wins: 9.53

Ben Johnson is a future head coach in this league, and he helped Jared Goff and the Lions operate the fourth-ranked offense (380.0 YPG) and fifth-best scoring offense (26.6) in 2022. Other than slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, there are question marks at receiver. Jameson Williams was drafted to be a difference maker, but he had two touches as a rookie and will miss the first six games in 2023 due to suspension. That said, the Lions have one of the league's best offensive lines and their 1-2 punch of rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is an upgrade over D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.

The Lions ranked last in the NFL in scoring defense (392.4 YPG), and only the Cardinals (26.4) and Bears (27.2) allowed more points per game (25.1). Aidan Hutchinson is a future star, and they have a new-look secondary. In fact, one of the biggest values in the entire draft was defensive back Brian Branch. The Lions may be the favorites to win the NFC North, but their defense could ultimately be what keeps them from going deep in the postseason.

MORE: Detroit Lions 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: NFC North

2023 NFL Predictions: NFC South

Here are our NFC South projections for each team including their win total.

1. New Orleans Saints - Projected Wins: 8.93

Compared to Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, all four NFC South teams have a new starter as they enter Week 1 of the 2023 season. Derek Carr is an upgrade over Andy Dalton, and Chris Olave is one of the best young receivers in the NFL. It's unclear what the team will get from Michael Thomas, who was once the most productive receiver in the NFL but has appeared in only 10 games over the past three seasons combined. Alvin Kamara is suspended for the first three games of the season, but the team will have a talented trio of backs with Kamara, Jamaal Williams, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year, and rookie Kendre Miller.

The Saints have ranked top 10 in DVOA in five consecutive seasons. The 2023 version of this defense will look different up front. While Cameron Jordan is still there, the team lost four linemen that played significant snaps. The strength of the defense is its secondary with Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye at safety and Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo and Bradley Roby at cornerback.

MORE: New Orleans Saints 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: NFC South

2023 NFL Predictions: NFC West

Here are our NFC West projections for each team including their win total.

1. San Francisco 49ers - Projected Wins: 10.84

The 49ers gave up a lot to get Trey Lance in 2021, but finding a starting quarterback with the last pick of the draft is anything but irrelevant. Bad jokes aside, Brock Purdy (elbow) appears healthy heading into the season and the 49ers have a talented offensive line and an elite group of pass catchers. On a roster with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey, efficiency is all that is really needed from the quarterback to get the ball in the hands of the team's playmakers.

The 49ers have lost defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to the Texans, but the biggest concern for the 49ers defense going into the 2023 season was the status of Nick Bosa, who was entering the final year of his contract. The two sides agreed to a massive contract extension on Wednesday, which ends his holdout. Along with Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, Bosa is one of the NFL's three best pass rushers and the reigning NFL AP Defensive Player of the Year after recording a league-high 18.5 sacks in 2022. Not only is Bosa one of the best defensive players in the league, but the 49ers have the league's best linebacker tandem with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.

MORE: San Francisco 49ers 2023 Fantasy Football Projections

Continue reading our 2023 NFL Predictions: NFC West

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

See who we predict to win Super Bowl LVIII in our Super Bowl 58 Prediction.

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