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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final results: Through Week 17, we have a combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
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See also:
- Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings: QB - RB - WR - TE
- NFL Schedule - Tickets - CFB Schedule - Tickets
- 2012 Mock Draft Databases: NFL - NBA
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DAILY WEEK 6 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Spreads are as of Saturday, October 15th at 4:55 a.m.
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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PACKERS
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14.0
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Rams
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GB -14
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GB -14
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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STEELERS
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12.5
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Jaguars
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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Eagles
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2.5
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REDSKINS
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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LIONS
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4.5
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49ers
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DET -4.5
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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FALCONS
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4.5
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Panthers
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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BENGALS
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7.0
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Colts
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Sun, Oct 16 at 1:05 p.m.
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GIANTS
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3.0
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Bills
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NYG -3
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Sun, Oct 16 at 4:10 p.m.
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RAVENS
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8.0
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Texans
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Sun, Oct 16 at 4:10 p.m.
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RAIDERS
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7.0
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Browns
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OAK -7
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OAK -7
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Sun, Oct 16 at 4:20 p.m.
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PATRIOTS
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6.5
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Cowboys
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DAL +6.5
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Sun, Oct 16 at 4:20 p.m.
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Saints
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4.5
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Buccaneers
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Sun, Oct 16 at 8:35 p.m.
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BEARS
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3.0
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Vikings
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CHI -3
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Mon, Oct 17 at 8:40 p.m.
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JETS
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7.0
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Dolphins
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NYJ -7
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Note: Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle and Tennessee are on bye this week.
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Rams at Packers (-14)
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Browns at Raiders (-7)
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Dolphins at Jets (-7)
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Packers -14
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Raiders -7
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Jets -7
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If you're a Rams fan and a glass-half-full
guy, here's a stat for you: St. Louis is tied for
the NFL lead in fewest interceptions thrown
(one) this season. OK, you should probably
stop reading now. For the rest of us, the
Rams are bad. Really bad. Not only have
they scored the fewest points (11.5 per
game), they have allowed the second most
(28.3 points per game). On a per-game
basis, no quarterback has been sacked more
than Sam Bradford. I could go on, but you
get the point. On the other hand, the
Packers' offense is firing on all cylinders.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers became the fifth
quarterback since 1970 to start the season
with five consecutive passer ratings of 100 or
more. No team has scored more than Green
Bay (34.6 per game). It's going to be a long
day for Bradford and the Rams.
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Playing with a heavy heart the day after the
death of long-time owner Al Davis, the
Raiders pulled off an "upset" on the road
against the Texans last week. The Raiders
will now play their first home game since his
passing. Both teams should be able to run
the ball well. Oakland has the league's
leading rusher in Darren McFadden, who is
averaging 103.8 yards per game and 5.7
yards per carry this season. The Raiders
passing game gets a boost from the
absence of cornerback Joe Haden, who has
been ruled out and is one of the league's
top up-and-coming cornerbacks. That
bodes well for Denarius Moore, who was
held reception-less in last week's game
facing the Texans top cornerback Jonathan
Joseph. The Browns are 1-6-1 in their past
eight games against the spread (ATS) while
the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their past six
games.
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For both of these teams, there is a ton of
pressure as the 'Fins have lost all four of
their games this year and the Jets are on a
three-game losing streak. Meanwhile,
there are rifts from within the Jets' locker
room that have gone public and no coach's
hot seat is hotter than Tony Sparano's.
Dolphins receiver Brandon Marshall has
joked, I think, that his plan is to play so
emotionally that he gets tossed from the
game in the middle of the second quarter.
For that quarter and a half that he's on the
field, he says he will be a "monster." With
the league's top shutdown corner in Darrelle
Revis, no wonder Marshall wants to leave
Revis Island early. The Jets will need to do
a better job stopping the run, however, as
the Dolphins will have rookie Daniel
Thomas back in the lineup. Thomas, who
has missed two games due to his
hamstring, has 202 rushing yards in the two
games he has played. With both teams'
backs against the proverbial wall, the Jets
find themselves in virtually a must-win
situation as a loss drops them to 2-4 and
otherwise need an 8-2 or 9-1 run to make
the postseason.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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49ers at Lions (4.5)
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Browns at Raiders (-7)
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Vikings at Bears (-3)
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Lions -4.5
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Raiders
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Bears -3
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In quite a surprising twist, we have a 5-0
Detroit Lions going against the resurgent 4-1
San Francisco 49ers in the Motor City. The
Lions have been impressive on offense so far
as a healthy Megatron and Matt Stafford has
paid huge dividends. The numbers certainly
favor the Lions here, as they are 10-1 against
the spread when playing a team with a
winning record in their last 11. The 49ers also
have one of the worst pass defenses in the
league, as they allow a 24th-worst 264 yards
per game through the air. I still do not trust
Alex Smith, and I love the swarming
aggressive Detroit defensive line. Too much
home field advantage, Stafford, Pettigrew,
and Megatron; lay the 4.5 here for the Leos
at home.
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At first glance, it is tough to go with the
Raiders laying the touchdown even though
they are at home, and Cleveland are
coming off the bye with the extra week to
prepare. However, just by taking a look at
what the Raiders do best, and what the
Browns don't do well gives a huge
advantage to the Raiders. Oakland has
been money so far against the number this
year, as they have posted a 4-1 mark,
while the Browns have gone 1-2-1. The
Raiders have the number one running back
in the league in Darren McFadden who has
gained 519 yards so far, while the Browns
allow 124 yards on the ground per game. I
believe the Raiders are still riding the
emotional high, as this will be their first
game at home since the passing of Al
Davis. Lay the seven here for the Silver and
Black.
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The Vikings finally got smart and used their
best weapon last week in Adrian Peterson,
and also had quite a bit of help from Kevin
Kolb to collect their first win. The Bears were
battered last Monday night on the road in
Detroit, but Jay Cutler certainly put all of his
toughness questions to rest by taking that
beating. In looking at the historical match
up, the Bears have won 2 of the last 3
games against the spread when playing the
Vikings. Bottom line, is that the Bears are
not that bad, and I love the bounce-back
game of Jay Cutler going against the 26th-
ranked team giving up 272 yards per game
though the air. I love the Bears at Soldier
Field on a Sunday night to lock down Adrian
Peterson, and force Donovan McNabb to
beat them.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Cowboys at Patriots (-6.5)
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Bills at Giants (-3)
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Rams at Packers (-14.5)
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Cowboys +6.5
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Giants -3
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Packers -14.5
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New England has one thing going for them
and that is Tom Brady. Without Tom Brady,
see the Miami Dolphins. New England is
nowhere near as talented as they were back
when Matt Cassel took over for Brady a few
years back. New England's defense is
overrated, and they face a huge test this
week versus Dallas. Dallas had an extra week
to prepare for the game and they will have a
healthy Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. The
national spotlight will be on Tony Romo again,
and I think he will pick apart the Patriots
secondary. With a full compliment of
weapons, I think the Cowboys score early and
often. Dallas defensively isn't great especially
versus the pass so I expect Tom Brady to
have a big game as well, but the main thing I
keep looking at is New England's defense.
This is going to be a huge test for them, and
Dallas will score enough points to keep it
close. It wouldn't shock me to see them win
this outright either. New England in a close
one, 38-34.
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Two of my losses this year are courtesy of
the Buffalo Bills, hopefully the third time is
the charm and I get a win picking against
them this week. Buffalo has beaten the
"Dream Team" and the New England
Patriots who many think are the 2nd-best
team in the NFL. Buffalo doesn't get respect
from anyone, and they like it. This week
they battle the Giants. The Giants looked
pitiful last week versus the Seahawks at
home. I think Tom Coughlin gets his team
back on track this week, and the Bills finally
come back to earth a little bit. Eli Manning
is the anti-Tony Romo being that he will
play like shit for three quarters and play
great at the end of the game. Offensively
the Giants found some new weapons in
Victor Cruz and TE Jake Ballard. Many,
including myself, questioned the odd
decision in regards to how the Kevin Boss
situation was handled, but Ballard has
actually outperformed what Boss did to this
point last year. If the Giants put up another
stinker then the Tom Coughlin era is pretty
much over. I think the Giants come out and
play a great game and win this one with a
good defensive effort, and a few big plays
from Eli Manning in the passing game.
Giants, 27-17.
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The Rams have scored 46 points total in 4
weeks, which averages out to 11.5 points
per game. The Packers on the other hand
have scored 173 points in 5 games, which
averages out to 34.6 points per game.
That's a 23-point difference. There is
nobody in the league that is better than
Aaron Rodgers right now. Rodgers despite
having a mediocre running game continues
to put up huge numbers. I could see this
game getting ugly quickly. Green Bay has
playmakers on both sides of the ball, while
St. Louis is an absolute mess offensively.
Mike Sims-Walker was not the answer for
the Rams offense. Sam Bradford is as
talented as any young QB in the league,
but without legit weapons to throw to, he is
going to struggle. I wouldn't be worried
about a back door cover in this one, as I
think this game has 20-30 point blowout
written all over it. Packers big, 45-17.
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