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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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DAILY WEEK 12 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Thursday, November 14th at 7:22 a.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Thu, Nov 24 at 12:30 p.m.
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Packers
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6.5
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LIONS
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DET +6.5
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GB -6.5
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Thu, Nov 24 at 4:15 p.m.
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COWBOYS
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7.0
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Dolphins
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DAL -7
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MIA +7
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DAL -7
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Thu, Nov. 24 at 8:20 p.m.
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RAVENS
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3.0
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49ers
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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JETS
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9.0
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Bills
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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BENGALS
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7.5
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Browns
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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Texans
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3.5
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JAGUARS
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HOU -3.5
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HOU -3.5
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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Panthers
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3.0
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COLTS
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CAR -3
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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FALCONS
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9.5
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Vikings
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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TITANS
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N/L
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Buccaneers
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Sun, Nov 27 at 1:00 p.m.
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RAMS
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N/L
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Cardinals
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Sun, Nov 27 at 4:05 p.m.
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RAIDERS
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4.0
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Bears
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Sun, Nov 27 at 4:05 p.m.
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SEAHAWKS
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3.5
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Redskins
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Sun, Nov 27 at 4:15 p.m.
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CHARGERS
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6.0
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Broncos
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Sun, Nov 27 at 4:15 p.m.
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Patriots
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N/L
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EAGLES
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Sun, Nov 27 at 8:30 p.m.
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Steelers
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10.5
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CHIEFS
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PIT -10.5
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Mon, Nov 28 at 8:40 p.m.
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SAINTS
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7.0
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Giants
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Packers (-6.5) at Lions
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Dolphins at Cowboys (-7)
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Texans (-3.5) at Jaguars
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Lions +6.5
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Cowboys -7
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Texans -3.5
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The Lions have long hosted the first
Thanksgiving Day game. However, it's been a
long time since this game has meant
anything. Going into today's game, however,
the Lions are in control of their playoff destiny
as they would be a wildcard team if the
season ended yesterday. And, of course, the
Packers have not lost in 16 consecutive
games going back to their Super Bowl run.
Although the Packers are clearly the best
team in football (and the unanimous choice
as No. 1 in our Power Rankings), I have a
strong preference for taking home teams on
Thursday games, especially when they are
nearly a touchdown underdog. Lions
quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off a
five-touchdown come-from-behind
performance against the Panthers. But
Detroit has repeatedly shown its ability to
overcome large deficits this season and that
may come in handy versus the Packers'
high-powered offense even though I think the
Lions will keep it close. Although the league's
best wide receiver missed practice on
Tuesday, Calvin Johnson is listed as probable
on the injury report for Thursday's game.
Throughout the year, I have continuously
pointed out how poor the Panthers are in
stopping running backs so I wouldn't expect
Kevin Smith to have a repeat performance of
last week's surprise 201-yard game. At the
same time, I feel that Smith gives the Lions
more balance in their offense than they had
with Maurice Morris as the primary ball-carrier.
Look for the Lions defensive line to put some
pressure on All-World quarterback Aaron
Rodgers and take the Lions and the points
here as this game goes down to the wire.
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The Dolphins bring their three-game
winning streak to Cowboys Stadium.
Undoubtedly, you have seen replays this
week of the Leon Lett feet-first slide into
the ball on the blocked field goal attempt
on Thanksgiving in 1993 over and over
again. (Fortunately there is no snow in the
forecast.) While the Dolphins are playing
better football, so are the Cowboys, who
have their own three-game winning streak.
Unlike Miami, however, the Cowboys have
their sights on the playoffs as Dallas is in a
tie with the Giants at the top of the NFC
East. Not surprisingly, both starting
quarterbacks have played well during their
teams' three-game winning streaks.
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has an
8:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a
passer rating of 112-plus in all three wins.
Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore has a 6:1
touchdown-to-interception ratio and has
completed more than 70 percent of his
passes during that span. That said, the
Cowboys have been much better at forcing
turnovers this season. Dallas' defense has
14 interceptions and 10 forced fumbles this
season while Miami's defense has only five
interceptions and six forced fumbles. In
addition, the Cowboys have more offensive
firepower than the Dolphins even though
Reggie Bush has been playing well.
DeMarco Murray has provided the Cowboys
with legitimate balance in their
running-passing attack.
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Aside from Maurice Jones-Drew, who has
80-plus rushing yards in nine of 10 games
this year, the Jaguars have virtually no
offense. After all, the only reason Blaine
Gabbert's 201 passing yards from last week
seems like a success is that it ended his
four-game streak of 118 yards or less. In
eight career starts, Gabbert has thrown for
200-plus yards only twice. Ultimately an
offense's effectiveness is judged by the
points it scores and only the Rams are
scoring (12.0 points per game) less than
the Jaguars (12.5 PPG). Regardless of the
defense they face, the Jaguars struggle to
score. But the Texans are currently ranked
No. 1 in overall defense (269.7 yards
allowed per game). I've always said that
Wade Phillips (although a bad head coach)
is a great defensive coordinator. Last year,
the Texans allowed almost the same total
in passing yards alone and they ranked
30th in the league in total defense. To be
fair, I think Matt Leinart stinks and the loss
of Matt Schaub hurts (a lot). With the
return of Andre Johnson, one of the
league's most gifted wide receivers, and
arguably the league's best rushing attack,
however, Leinart will be counted on to
"manage" the game. (We don't care if we
offend Jim Harbaugh's "sports sensibility.")
In his past seven games, Arian Foster has
four 100-yard rushing games and three
100-yard receiving games. Backup Ben
Tate has four 100-yard rushing games on
the season. Here's another way to look at
the effectiveness of the Texans rushing
offense: Foster and Tate both rank in the
top 11 in rushing (or ahead of Baltimore's
Ray Rice, who is 12th in the league).
Coming off their bye, the Texans and
Phillips will throw the kitchen sink at
Gabbert as the Texans win this divisional
matchup easily.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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Dolphins at Cowboys (-7)
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Panthers (-3) at Colts
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Steelers (-10.5) at Chiefs
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Dolphins +7
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Panthers -3
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Steelers -10.5
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Just in time for your holiday enjoyment, the
Dolphins and Cowboys have ripped off several
wins in a row. The most famous Thanksgiving
episode, of course, belongs to the Cowboys
Leon Lett; one can only wish for snow
tomorrow. The Dolphins have been red hot as
of late vs. the number, as they have covered
their last four in row, while the Cowboys have
gone the other way posting a 1-3 mark. The
Dolphins defense has been an impressive
force of late, as they have only surrendered 8,
9, 3 points in their last three games. I really
like the Cowboys to win this game, but I am
certain that Miami will keep this one close. I
like the Miami D that is only giving up 18.6
points per game to keep Romo and Co. in
check. Take the extra seven points here as
you would with a second helping of
Thanksgiving dinner, these teams are closer
than you'd think.
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Yet another holiday gift, we get to see the
Panthers travel to Indy, where the Colts are
in full-on-tanking mode like an NBA team
for a lottery pick. Carolina has a rich history
against the Colts, as they have gone 3-1
against the spread when playing the Colts.
The Colts are an abysmal 2-8 against the
number this year, and they have lost their
last 6 games in a row against the spread as
well. I love the look of the two-headed
rushing attack of DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart going up against the #29
ranked defense overall. I love the matchup
of the Carolina defense going up against
either Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky, and
the Panthers dynamic offense going
against a team giving up 30 points per
game.
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The Steelers come into this game fresh off
their bye, and have given Ben
Roethlisberger a chance to heal his foot
and thumb. The Chiefs come into this short
week after getting beaten down by the
Patriots in Foxboro. I know that Arrowhead
is usually a tough place to play, but the
Steelers are 3-1 against the spread in their
last 4 when playing the Chiefs. These two
teams have also been the opposite against
the number in their last 4, as Pittsburgh is
3-1 and Kansas City is 1-3. I do not like a
Chiefs offense that was able to manage
only three points against a Patriots
defense, as Pittsburgh is ranked #2 overall.
It doesn't really matter if it is Tyler Palko,
or giving Kyle Orton the spot start after
having five days to learn the playbook to
cover this game. Lay the big number here
as I don't trust the Chiefs being able to
generate enough points.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Packers (-6.5) at Lions
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Dolphins at Cowboys (-7)
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Texans (-3.5) at Jaguars
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Packers -6.5
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Cowboys -7
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Texans -3.5
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This game has been circled on the calendar
by many as the game where the Packers
would get their first loss. I think the Packers
although have showed some flaws defensively
lately will get it done here. Detroit is 0-7 ATS
in their last 7 Thursday games. I am not
drinking the one-game Kevin Smith Kool-Aid
because he had a great game versus an awful
run defense in Carolina. Calvin Johnson has
been limited with an injury this week and
Detroit is just coming off an emotional
comeback win this past week. Green Bay leads
the NFL with 19 picks, and I think Stafford
throws 3 Thursday and Rodgers has another
huge game. Packers win, 41-27.
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Here is another nice trend in this one as
Dallas is pretty much the exact opposite of
Detroit as they are 6-0 ATS in their past 6
Thursday games. This line opened at 9 and
then it has dropped 2 points which seems
pretty odd. Let's not think that Washington
giving Dallas a run for their money means
anything... It doesn't. The 'Skins always
play the Cowboys tough. Both teams come
into this game with a three-game winning
streak, but let's be real here. The Dolphins
and Matt Moore are not a very good team.
Dallas has something to prove, and there is
no better stage than the late national
televised game. I think Dallas comes out
firing on all cylinders and wins easily 27-9.
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I am a believer in the Houston Texans.
Losing Matt Schaub for the season hurts,
but people forget one key thing in Houston.
Their defense is legit. Wade Phillips as DC
should get votes for NFL Coach of the Year
because he has turned a mediocre defense
into the #1 defense in the NFL. Houston
has the best 1-2 punch in the NFL I believe
with Arian Foster & Ben Tate and they are
finally getting Andre Johnson back. Matt
Leinart isn't going to be called on to win
games by throwing 40+ times. Houston can
control the clock and play solid D. This
game will make America believers again in
the Texans. 24-16 Texans
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