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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final results: Through Week 17, we have a combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
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See also:
- Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings: QB - RB - WR - TE
- NFL Schedule - Tickets - CFB Schedule - Tickets
- 2012 Mock Draft Databases: NFL - NBA
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DAILY WEEK 5 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Spreads as of Saturday, October 8th at 12:25 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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COLTS
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2.0
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Chiefs
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IND -2
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IND -2
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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VIKINGS
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3.0
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Cardinals
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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Eagles
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3.0
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BILLS
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PHI -3
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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TEXANS
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5.0
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Raiders
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OAK +5
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OAK +5
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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Saints
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6.5
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PANTHERS
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NO -6.5
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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JAGUARS
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2.0
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Bengals
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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STEELERS
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3.0
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Titans
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Sun, Oct 9 at 1:05 p.m.
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GIANTS
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9.5
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Seahawks
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Sun, Oct 9 at 4:10 p.m.
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49ERS
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3.0
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Buccaneers
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Sun, Oct 9 at 4:20 p.m.
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PATRIOTS
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7.5
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Jets
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NYJ +7.5
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Sun, Oct 9 at 4:20 p.m.
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Chargers
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4.0
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BRONCOS
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SD -4
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Sun, Oct 9 at 8:35 p.m.
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Packers
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6.0
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FALCONS
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ATL +6
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Mon, Oct 10 at 8:40 p.m.
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LIONS
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5.0
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Bears
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Note: Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis and Washington are on bye this week.
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Raiders at Texans (-5)
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Packers (-6) at Falcons
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Chiefs at Colts (-2)
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Raiders +5
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Falcons +6
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Colts -2
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The Texans will be without wide receiver Andre
Johnson for the next three weeks or so and
will lean on their ground attack led by a
healthy-again Arian Foster. In fact, this game
features two of the league's top rushers in
Oakland's Darren McFadden and Foster. In
four games this season, McFadden has
exactly 600 yards from scrimmage and he
leads the NFL in rushing (468 yards). The last
time these two teams played, McFadden was
held to only 47 rushing yards, but he also had
six receptions for 82 yards. Under new head
coach Hue Jackson, the Raiders are a
confident bunch. Jackson has predicted an
AFC West title and has this team believing in
themselves. I think the Raiders are better
than their 2-2 record indicates and both of
their losses were against 3-1 teams. In
addition, the Raiders will be playing with a
heavy heart with the passing of their
legendary owner, Al Davis, on Saturday
morning. While I wouldn't be surprised if the
Raiders pull off the upset, I expect them to
keep this game close.
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The general rule of thumb is that the
portion of the point spread attributed to
home-field advantage is three points.
Based on that assumption, the spread in
this game implies that the Falcons would be
close to a double-digit underdog on a
neutral field. To be clear, the Falcons have
their share of problems. The Falcons are
2-2 and nearly blew a 20-point second-half
to the Seahawks, one of the league's worst
teams. Atlanta's defense ranks 27th in
scoring (26.3 points per game allowed) and
only the Bills have fewer sacks this season
than the Falcons. Facing the high-powered
Packers' offense and Aaron Rodgers, who is
coming off a six-touchdown performance, it
could be a long day for Atlanta's defense.
That said, the Packers defense has
struggled as well. Green Bay has allowed
the fifth-most yards (406.8 per game) and
only New England has allowed more passing
yards. While the Falcons need to protect
their quarterback better, Matt Ryan has a
21-2 record at home during the regular
season and better passing ratios across the
board. While I think the Packers will win
this game outright, I also think it will be a
shootout with both teams putting up a lot
of points. I wouldn't be surprised to see
the final score be something like 35-31 and
the Falcons covering the spread.
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Through four weeks, these two teams have
a combined 1-7 record. In other words,
both teams have been huge
disappointments. To be fair, both sides
have suffered significant injuries to their
best players. While Kansas City got their
first win of the season against the winless
Vikings last week, the Colts have played
their opponents reasonably tough in their
past two matchups. It's likely that Curtis
Painter will be the team's starting
quarterback again this week. Although he
didn't play great in his first career start last
week, Painter did throw for 281 yards, two
touchdowns and, most importantly, no
intercetpions. Both of these teams rank in
the bottom four in the league in offense
and both teams have been bad against the
run (allowing 130-plus rushing yards per
game). With Jamaal Charles out for the
season, the Chiefs will rely heavily on
receiver Dwayne Bowe for their offensive
output. On the other hand, the Colts have
a better balance than the Chiefs when it
comes to running the ball and skill players
on offense. After this weekend, there will
be at least one fewer winless team tied for
the lead in the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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Chiefs at Colts (-2)
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Saints (-6.5) at Panthers
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Chargers (-4) at Broncos
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Colts -2
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Saints -6.5
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Chargers -4
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How the mighty have fallen, as these teams
have gone from playing each other in the
playoffs last year, to having just one win
between the two this year. The Colts downturn
is to be expected as they are still missing
their All-World quarterback in Peyton Manning.
The Chiefs have also lost one of the most
dynamic players in the league in running back
Jamaal Charles. The historic numbers favor
the Colts here, as Kansas City is 2-8 in their
last 10 vs the AFC, and they just also happen
to be 2-8 against the spread in their last 10
against the Colts as well. I like the combo of
Addai, Clark, and Reggie Wayne to run over
the Chiefs, and give the Colts their first win of
the year.
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Wow, Cam Newton has certainly impressed
this year as he has all of the league
buzzing with his fast start. The Saints after
losing a tough game opening night have
been firing on all cylinders and look to be
the second best team in the NFC so far.
Normally I don't like road teams in division
games giving 6 or more, but, for the
Saints, I will make an exception. Both
teams have been impressive against the
spread this year, as they have gone 3-1,
and they have split their last 4 matchups at
2-2. I foresee Sean Payton being able to
exploit Carolina's 31st-ranked rush defense
this Sunday, as Carolina allows an average
of 143 yards per game on the ground. I
think there is too much Sproles, Ingram,
and of course Drew Brees, so I will lay the
6.5 here.
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It's been a weird September for the
Chargers, as they have actually managed
to go 3-1 so far, but if you watched them
play you certainly wouldn't know it. The
Broncos have been frisky this year, but
have struggled to put wins up going 1-3 on
the new campaign. I love the historical
numbers here as San Diego is an awesome
7-1-2 in their last 10 against the number
when playing Denver. San Diego also has to
be licking their chops as they bring their
aerial assault against the 23rd-ranked
passing defense. The Broncos have allowed
an average of 275 yards per game and 9
TDs on the year so far. I love Philip Rivers
and Vincent Jackson, and the short 4 here
as Mile High home field isn't what it used to
be. Take the Bolts here.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Eagles (-3) at Bills
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Raiders at Texans (-5)
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Jets at Patriots (-7.5)
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Eagles -3
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Raiders +5
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Jets +7.5
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I like the Eagles in a bounce-back game after
their total collapse against San Francisco. The
Eagles have a lot of problems defensively,
mainly at LB, and that does pose a threat
when you face a shifty back like Fred Jackson.
I think Buffalo is still a tad bit overrated. If
Philly loses to Buffalo this week, then they can
pretty much kiss their season goodbye as I
think it is going to take at least 10 wins to get
a wildcard in the NFC. They are good enough
on paper to have a 9-2 run, but they have 5
division games left, games versus New
England, NY Jets & Chicago. This is an
absolute must-win. I have a feeling that no
matter what happens in Buffalo the rest of the
year, that Bills fans will be satisfied with the
season just because of the New England win.
Let's face it, they are not going to compete
for a playoff spot this year. I think Vick has
another big game here and the Eagles win on
the road, 31-24.
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With the news that Andre Johnson is going
to miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury,
I am jumping all over the Raiders with this
line. Houston has played great this year
and looks like they are legit AFC
contenders, but I actually see them
struggling in this one. Houston does not
have a WR on their roster who can step in
and be anywhere near as good as Andre
Johnson. Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter
are both #3 WRs. Oakland has one of the
worst run defenses in the NFL this season,
so stopping Arian Foster will be key.
Houston's O-Line is not going to be able to
push around Oakland's DLline like they did
last week versus the Steelers. Houston's
run defense isn't much better, and I think
stopping the Raiders rushing attack will be
more of a challenge. I actually think the
Raiders are going to win this game outright.
I'd consider adding a small moneyline play
on it. Raiders 24-23
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I see this game as high as 11 in some
online sports books. New York looked awful
offensively last week vs Baltimore. Their
running game especially has been brutal.
They should get some good news this week
by getting back Nick Mangold, arguably the
best center in the NFL. New England ranks
last in the NFL in yards against and it's by a
pretty wide margin. New England also ranks
first in the NFL in total offense. You could
make a case that their defense is just
allowing the short stuff and taking the big
play away because they are up so much, or
you could actually look at the fact that this
defense is just not that good. They have
some great players like Vince Wilfork and
Jerod Mayo, but the rest of their team is
pretty young and inexperienced. Mayo the
leader in the middle is out with a knee
injury. I think the Jets are going to put up a
good fight here, and like the Raiders game
it would not shock me to see them go into
New England and pull the upset. The
Patriots defense does not look as bad when
their offense is playing bad defenses and
scoring 30+ points per game, but against a
good defense their own poor defense is
going to stick out like a sore thumb. I like
the Pats to win but only by a FG, 30-27.
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