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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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DAILY WEEK 11 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Saturday, November 19th at 1:15 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Thu, Nov 17 at 8:30 p.m.
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Denver Broncos 17, New York Jets 13
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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DOLPHINS
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1.5
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Bills
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BUF +1.5
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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RAVENS
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6.5
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Bengals
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CIN +6.5
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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BROWNS
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1.0
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Jaguars
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JAX +1
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JAX +1
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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Raiders
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1.0
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VIKINGS
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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LIONS
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7.0
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Panthers
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DET -7
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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PACKERS
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14.5
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Buccaneers
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Sun, Nov 20 at 1:00 p.m.
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Cowboys
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7.0
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REDSKINS
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Sun, Nov 20 at 4:05 p.m.
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49ERS
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10.0
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Cardinals
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SF -10
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Sun, Nov 20 at 4:05 p.m.
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RAMS
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3.0
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Seahawks
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Sun, Nov 20 at 4:15 p.m.
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FALCONS
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6.0
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Titans
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ATL -6
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TEN +6
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Sun, Nov 20 at 4:15 p.m.
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BEARS
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3.5
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Chargers
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Sun, Nov 20 at 8:35 p.m.
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GIANTS
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5.0
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Eagles
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Mon, Nov 21 at 8:40 p.m.
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PATRIOTS
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15.0
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Chiefs
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NE -15
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Bills at Dolphins (-1.5)
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Titans at Falcons (-6)
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Jaguars at Browns (-1)
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Bills +1.5
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Falcons -6
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Jaguars +1
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Based on each team's past two games, the
Dolphins, who have won two straight, and Bills,
who have lost two straight, are trending in the
opposite direction. Will that continue? As
ESPN college football analyst Lee Corso would
say, "not say fast, my friends." While the
Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest
rushing touchdowns (three), only three teams
have allowed more rushing touchdowns than
Buffalo this season. That said, Buffalo has
been better against the run (even without
defensive tackle Kyle Williams) over their past
four games as they have allowed only 3.7
yards per carry during that span. In addition,
only the Packers (17) have more interceptions
than the Bills (15). Although Bills running
back Fred Jackson has not scored in three
weeks and Miami's run defense is underrated,
I expect a big week from Jackson, the NFL's
leading rusher (917 yards), to help the Bills'
offense get back on track. Jackson has four
100-yard rushing games in the past five
weeks. The one exception was against an
improved Jets run defense, who have not
allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 5.
Jackson still finished with 82 rushing yards
(4.6 yards per carry) and 120 yards from
scrimmage in that game. Although the 'Fins
have a one-game home winning streak, they
have won only two of their past 14 games at
home.
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If you're expecting Titans running back
Chris Johnson to continue to roll after last
week's season-best performance at
Carolina, brace yourself. Here's an
interesting stat: The Panthers have allowed
an 85-yard rusher in every game this
season except one and the Falcons have
allowed only one 85-yard rusher
(Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy, 95 yards, in
Week 2) this season. Unlike the Dolphins,
the Falcons have been tough to beat at
home over the past few years. Although
they are only 2-2 at home this season, the
first loss was to the unbeaten Packers and
the other loss was to the Saints in
overtime. For his career, quarterback Matt
Ryan is 22-4 at home compared to 16-13
on the road. Almost all of Ryan's numbers
are better at home (road numbers in
parenthesis): 94.0 passer rating (80.4),
63.7 completion percentage (58.4), 7.37
yards per pass attempt (6.21) and a 40:17
touchdown-to-interception ratio (40:27).
The Falcons are 8-2 against the spread as
a home favorite in games with spreads of
3.5 to 10 points and are 18-5 ATS in
games following a straight-up loss.
Meanwhile, the Titans are 6-13 against the
spread against teams with a winning record.
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For my third game, I was very tempted to
take the Bucs and the 14.5 points, but it's
hard to bet against the Packers and Aaron
Rodgers, who is making it look way too
easy this season. Instead, I am going with
what just may be the most boring game of
the day, or even the season, as the Browns
and Jaguars have scored 20-plus points in
only one game each this season. The
Browns will be without Peyton Hillis for
another game and Montario Hardesty is a
game-time decision, but I don't expect him
to play. Chris Ogbonnaya had a solid
game last week against the league's
worst-ranked run defense (St. Louis), but
Silent G won't be able to get the ground
game going against a tougher run defense
this week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's
Maurice Jones-Drew has been extremely
consistent this year. Through nine games,
Jones-Drew has rushed for 80-plus yards in
eight games, which is the most in the NFL.
(Fred Jackson and LeSean McCoy have
seven 80-yard games each and Adrian
Peterson has six of them.) Meanwhile the
Browns have allowed the third-most rushing
yards (142.8 per game) this season. The
Jaguars are 3-0-1 against the spread in
their last four games while the Browns are
1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 home games.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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Cardinals at 49ers (-10)
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Bengals at Ravens (-6.5)
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Jaguars at Browns (-1)
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49ers -10
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Bengals +6.5
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Jaguars +1
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In what could be truly the last important game
to decide the NFC West, the Cardinals will
travel to the Bay Area to take on the red hot
49ers. San Francisco has been a covering
machine, as they have gone 8-0-1 in their
last 9 overall, and 5-0 against the Cardinals
on the trot as well. The Cardinals have been
the opposite side of dismal, as they have
posted a 5-11 in their last 16 games against
the number. I do not trust John Skelton
leading the 22nd-best offense into
Candlestick Park, and coming out with great
results. I would look to the 49ers D to live up
to their No. 1 rush defense ranking, and force
Skelton to win it through the air. Lay the
points on this one, as San Francisco cements
their division with this win.
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So the Bengals failed their litmus test last
week in losing to the Steelers at home,
while the Ravens are coming off an
embarrassing loss to the Seahawks on the
road. Historically, the Bengals have played
the Ravens very tough, as they have gone
4-0 vs the Ravens in their last 4 and have
posted an impressive 10-2 mark against
the number as well. The Bengals may have
lost Leon Hall, but they have the 2nd-best
rush defense in the league, only allowing
3.4 yards per carry. While I like the Ravens
to bounce back with a win, I feel they will
not make the number missing Ray Lewis,
and depending on the inconsistent Joe
Flacco.
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The Jags come into this game after a win
against the hapless Colts, while the Browns
missed a chip shot field goal at the gun
that is indicative of their season. Cleveland
has been awful against the spread lately,
as they have gone 4-15-2 in their last 21
games. The Browns are also still down to
their 3rd-string running back, as it looks as
if Hardesty and Hillis will miss yet another
game. So, do I trust a putrid offense that
puts up 14.6 points per game to beat the
No. 2 overall defense in the league that
only gives up 18.6 yards per game? Not a
chance, when in doubt take the points and
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville isn't that
bad, just their offense sucks.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Chiefs at Patriots (-15)
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Panthers at Lions (-7)
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Titans at Falcons (-6)
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Patriots -15
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Lions -7
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Titans +6
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Kansas City has had issues on offense with
Matt Cassel at QB. This week Tyler Palko will
be starting for the Chiefs. This is a no-brain
game for me. This game smells like a
blowout. I don't think a Palko-led team could
keep this close. I think New England will have
this covered by half time and then will send a
message to the rest of the AFC when they put
their foot on the Chiefs throat in the second
half and whoop their ass old school Patriots
style. New England huge 41-13
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This is another blowout in the making
game. Carolina looked awful against
Tennessee at home, now they travel to
Detroit where they just come off a
humiliating loss to the Bears. I think the
Lions get back on track here and beat the
Panthers. I don't think the overlook factor
(GB game Thanksgiving) comes into play
here. Carolina has no defense and no
match for Calvin Johnson. Lions win 31-20
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Huge game for both teams as the playoffs
are going to be tough to reach with a loss
and going back to .500 at 5-5. Atlanta is
just coming off a heart-breaking OT loss to
New Orleans and Tennessee is coming off a
great overall game in their win at Carolina.
Atlanta is a team without an identity and
Tennessee has been as inconsistent as
they come. I think with so much on the line
that this game comes down to the 4th
quarter. I honestly think it is a toss up
game. Atlanta 23-20
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