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In fantasy football seasons past, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson wouldn't be available at their 2008 average draft pick slots.

Steve Smith is the 7th and 6th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 28th and 23rd, respectively.

• Last year, Steve Smith didn't have the kind of season you would expect from what was most likely the #1 WR taken in your draft, especially from weeks 8-15. In that span, his best game was 72 receiving yards. He didn't have a TD during that span.

• This year, Jake Delhomme is back. According to Smith, Delhomme's arm seems stronger although I'm sure Smith would probably say that he still can't be outthrown. Delhomme got hurt week 3 last year. What did Smith do weeks 1 and 2? 7 rec, 118 yds, 1 TD and 8 rec, 153 yds, 3 TDs.

Chad Johnson is the 11th and 10th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 33rd and 32nd, respectively.

• Chad cried wolf. He made some strong demands and he was (like always really) very vocal about those demands. What's Ocho Cinco's tune these days: "I love you Cincinnati". On ESPN in an interview with Stephen A. Smith, Smith asked Johnson about his relationship with Carson Palmer and Chads response was "Carson loves me".

• If everything is as "normal" (I use that word loosely) with Chad and Cincy, he's been extremely consistent and extremely productive. Look at his last 3 years:

  • 2005: 97 rec, 1432 yds, 9 TDs

  • 2006: 87 rec, 1369 yds, 7 TDs

  • 2007: 93 rec, 1440 yds, 8 TDs

Looking back at the 2008 fantasy season, which WR will give you the greatest opportunity to say "I told you so" to all the doubters? 

Although I think both will, it will be especially so with Chad Johnson.  While he'll likely be a pain in the ass for Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer all season, he's not likely to pester you or me to trade him to "The Kalamazoo Killers" or "The Steel Curtain".  And if he ever did, that's a much better story than telling people you won your fantasy football league.

But imagine a draft that gets you some combo of RB-WR-RB in the 1st 3 rounds and you take Chad Johnson in the 4th round as your 2nd WR.  Although the Bengals have standed their ground (which I admire), there's no chance (barring injury) that Johnson doesn't play at all.  Regardless of whether Johnson plays somewhere else (although not expected) or plays with a pout, what's the least an owner can expect from him?  1000 yards and 6 TDs.  That still would put him in the Top 20 (most likely).  I think 1300 / 7 is most likely.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out and plays with a monster chip on his shoulder and puts up something like 1500 / 10.  Without the off-season debacle, Johnson would have been in the top 3-4 WRs taken in drafts.

Drew Rosenhaus, Chad's agent, won't let this situation develop into what happened with T.O. in Philly.  He knows firsthand how much of a mistake that would be.  So, if you can take Ocho Cinco where he's currently being drafted, get ready to say "Championship". 

Posted by edsfootball at 01:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Matthew Berry of ESPN says this in his Players I Love / Players I Hate column: "My friend Merril Hoge tells me Davis can't run a route to save his life. Stats seem to back him up. And the Martz offense doesn't use a tight end all that much. Too much hype, too little production..."  You probably aren't surprised that Davis falls on his "Players I Hate" side.

Right now, Vernon Davis appears in the 8-10 range on most site's positional rankings for TEs.  Last season, I projected (and correctly for a change) that Jason Witten would finish in the Top 2 of fantasy TEs and that it would be smart to target him as a possible trade target before others realized his true value.  I think Vernon Davis will enjoy the same fate in 2008. 

Mike Martz sums up why:

"I don't know if anyone in the league can run like he can at that position," Martz, the 49ers' first-year offensive coordinator, said of Davis. "He gets down the field so fast. I don't know who beats him in a footrace."

Martz said none of his offensive players worked harder this spring than Davis, who was on the field before practice started and hung around after it ended to hone his receiving skills.

With the lack of a big-time WR (Bryant Young, Isaac Bruce, Ashley Lelie, Arnaz Battle are the top 4 WRs), I expect Martz to utilize Davis like and as a WR.  If he's working as hard as Martz says on his receiving skills, this 3rd-year TE might reach full stride in 2008.  And, once he does, there's no stopping him. 

Posted by edsfootball at 09:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

First, let me say that Wes Welker is one of my favorite players albeit on one of my least favorite teams.  Despite disliking the Patriots in general, there are some things about the Patriots that I admire including the organization's ability to play as a team and to focus on the task at hand.  In many ways, Wes Welker embodies the positives I see in the Pats.

However, Welker has allowed himself to call out former teammate Asante Samuel.  Welker said "Asante's a great player, so it hurts not to have a guy like that.  But then again, it's part of the business of the game.  He chose money over championships, and that's the way it goes sometimes."

I heard Marcellus Wiley make a good point on NFL Live today.  He mentioned that Shannon SharpeGiants last off-season in order to win a Super Bowl?  Granted, would say that you play for 2 M's: money and memories.  The one that you can control is money.  As Wiley asked, how many players wanted to play for the Samuel would likely be better positioned to win a championship in New England.  But those championships are not guaranteed as we saw last season.

If Samuel went to Oakland or Miami or Atlanta for the money, then it's just the money.  With the off-season moves that Eagles have made combined with McNabb's resurgence at the end of the season in 2007, the Eagles are poised to exceed early expectations in 2008.  Couple that with the fact that the Eagles play in the weaker conference (which includes the SB Champs), Samuel's going after both M's.

Although I disagree a little with Welker's assertion about Samuel's pursuit of money over memories, the fact that he called out a former teammate has caused my opinion of one of favorite players (regardless of team) to drop a notch.

Posted by edsfootball at 09:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Most of the time, we're reading about how NFL player (or professional athlete in general) acts like there are no consequences to his actions. Heck, even ProFootballTalk.com has a counter labeled "Days Without an Arrest". From Derrick Martin busted at airport with marijuana to {insert name} busted for DUI to Brandon Jones bringing his gun to the airport, it seems like nobody gets it. It seems like there is no accountability, no common sense, no nada...

I saw this article online and although this should be the norm, it was nice to see. Eric Weddle of the Chargers gets it.

"You see every day guys getting suspended, things like that, but if you're focused, stuff shouldn't happen," Weddle said. "I know what I'm here for. I'm here to play football. It's my job. Support my wife and my little baby girl - that's all that matters to me."

"I couldn't be more blessed, couldn't be in a better situation," Weddle said.

The last sentence sums up how every fan of the game would feel if they had the opportunity to play the game they love for insane gobs of money. Finally, thanks to Eric Weddle, it seems like someone gets it.

Posted by edsfootball at 11:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

I'm not sure.

Something happened in 2007. And it wasn't just the Pats and their players making history. Pats fans became complacent. (Of course, there are exceptions to every rule).

Living in "New England", I first noticed this towards the end of the season as many Pats fans seemed to yawn at the potential of going 16-0. Granted it's (somewhat) meaningless if the Pats don't win the Super Bowl, but this was the first time it has ever happened. Lots of people I know weren't using their December Pats season tickets because they preferred to be "out of the cold".

While listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN Radio this morning on my way to work, they mentioned Packers/Giants tickets were $500+ on Razor Gator (disclosure: I'm a Razor Gator affiliate) and $180+ for Pats/Chargers tickets.

I just checked Stubhub.com (disclosure: I'm a StubHub affiliate) and the 2 cheapest tickets at 10:30 p.m. tonight for Packers/Giants were $549.99 each for 2. The cheapest non-SRO seats for the Pats/Chargers game were $249 each for 2.

If you're in this area (90 minutes from Boston - 90 minutes from NYC), you know tickets for football games tend to be expensive. At the start of the year, tickets to the week 2 Pats home opener vs the Chargers (the same team they play Sunday) cost more than what the AFC Championship tickets cost in the secondary market.

The way I look at it is people vote with their money. And MA has the 3rd highest per capita income in the country ($43,501 in 2006) not-to-mention it borders other wealthy states like CT (1st on the list). WI, on the other hand, is 22nd at $34,701. So it's not like the rich folks of WI are artificially driving up the prices and the poor folks in the Northeast just can't keep up with the Joneses. The people in MA, CT and NH are the ones that can most easily afford to overspend to be at the game. But they're not. If you adjust for income levels, fans are paying 3 x's as much to be at Lambeau than Gillette.

Packers fans would give anything to see their team win a title. I can't say the same about the spoiled Pats fans. Considering how the Pats coaches/players overlook nobody, I find it ironic that their fans have come to take their team's success for granted.

Posted by edsfootball at 04:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)