2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, 1.0: Round 4
Mock Draft Start Date: Monday, May 12th
Mock Draft End Date: Saturday, May 24th
Scoring: This mock draft is based on re-draft leagues (2014 season only). Passing touchdowns are worth four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points. In addition, one point is earned per 25 passing yards, 10 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.
Here are Round 4 results (commentary from Kevin Hanson):
4.01 - Dan Yanotchko (Team 3): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
It's perhaps an understatement to say the past nine months have not gone well for Rice. Not only was he a disappointment on the field, but he was arrested for hitting his then-fiancee in an Atlantic City club. Believe it or not, they recently got married, coincidentally (or not-so-coincidentally) on the day after Rice was indicted on charges for aggravated assault.
After four straight seasons of rushing for more than 1,100 yards, Rice gained only 660 yards on his 214 carries, which averaged out to a career-low 3.1 yards per carry. He added 58 receptions for 321 yards, but both of those are lows during his time as a starter.
Even if Rice performs better when he's on the field, and it would be hard for him to be much worse, it's more than possible that Rice faces league discipline and misses some time.
4.02 - Brendan Donahue (Team 3): Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington Redskins
While Garcon set career highs in receptions (a league-high 113) and yards (1,346), the addition of DeSean Jackson means that Garcon will likely get fewer than the 182 targets he had last season. That said, I don't expect a huge drop in production and can see him finish with around 1,200 yards in 2014.
4.03 - Kevin Hanson (Team 3): Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans
There have been two primary knocks on Johnson: durability and lack of touchdowns. While he has played in 16 games in back-to-back seasons, it is shocking that he has never caught double-digit touchdowns in his 11-year career.
When he has played 16 games in a season, however, he has been extremely productive. He has played 16 games in four of the past six years. In those four seasons, Johnson has a minimum of 101 receptions (2009) and 1,407 yards (2013).
Reports are that Johnson won't attend any of the team's OTAs or mandatory mini-camp in June, but it's unlikely that the team trades him or that he misses any games related to any of the questions he has about the organization.
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4.04 - Sean Beazley (Team 3): Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In his second season with the Bucs, Jackson set a career high with 78 receptions and once again exceeded 1,200 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. While he has more than his fair of inconsistency from week to week, a 70/1,200/7 season (or better) should be a lock for Jackson.
4.05 - Sean Beazley (Team 2): Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
While I considered Brees with my last few picks, I decided to hold off and wait to draft my quarterback but I think Brees is a tremendous bargain here.
For a long time, 5,000 passing yards seemed like a special feat. And it is ... for everyone else. For Brees, however, it's become an expectation. Brees has thrown for 5,000-plus yards in three consecutive seasons. With four 5,000-yard seasons in his career, Brees is tied with all other quarterbacks in the history of the NFL combined. In addition, Brees has thrown for 128 touchdowns over the past three years.
Even if Brees doesn't reach 5,000 passing yards this season, he's going to come close and he's a lock to be a top-three producer in fantasy points at the position.
4.06 - Kevin Hanson (Team 2): Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos
Orange Julius had a breakout season in 2013 as he finished with 65 receptions for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns in 14 games. A mismatch waiting to happen, Thomas should be even better in 2014 in his second season as a starter in Peyton Manning's offense.
4.07 - Brendan Donahue (Team 2): Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Fitzgerald failed to reach 1,000 yards for the second season in a row, but he ended a streak of seasons with single-digit touchdowns. Last year, Fitz had 82 receptions for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns. While he didn't miss any games (for his sixth consecutive season), Fitzgerald dealt with some nagging injuries in the middle of the season.
4.08 - Dan Yanotchko (Team 2): Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers
An Achilles injury in May kept Crabtree from building upon his 2012 breakout season. Assuming good health in 2014, I would expect numbers comparable to his 2012 season: 85 receptions for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns.
4.09 - Dan Yanotchko (Team 1): T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
There are several receivers that I'd prefer over Hilton at this point.
With Reggie Wayne sidelined for half of the season, Hilton took another step forward in Year 2 with 82 receptions for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns. It's possible that he takes another step forward in Year 3, but my expectations are a little tempered.
I think Hilton finished with numbers similar to those he had last season, but better health from Wayne and the addition of Hakeem Nicks in free agency could contain Hilton's upside. In fact, I think Nicks will exceed the depressed expectations most have for him as he plays for his next contract.
4.10 - Kevin Hanson (Team 1): Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers
A few factors that could negatively impact Gore's fantasy value are: (1) he just turned 31 years old, (2) he has more than 2,500 career touches, (3) he averaged a career-low 4.1 YPC last year and (4) Marcus Lattimore and Carlos Hyde will be in the mix for touches.
That said, the 49ers have one of the league's best offensive lines and Gore rushed for 1,100-plus yards and eight-plus touchdowns for the third consecutive season. In addition, he has played all 48 regular-season games over the past three seasons. Before 2011, Gore had played 16 games just once in six seasons.
4.11 - Brendan Donahue (Team 1): Ben Tate, RB, Cleveland Browns
No longer in the shadow of Arian Foster, Tate will start as the man in the Browns' backfield. When given the opportunity, Tate has been productive as he has averaged 4.7 YPC in his career. Durability is a concern, however, as he has played only 40 regular-sesaon games since being drafted four years ago.
With Josh Gordon's looming suspension, the Browns will utilize a run-heavy attack, but the Browns drafted a pair of talented rookies. Not only did they use a third-round pick on Terrance West, who posted video game-type numbers at Towson, but they signed Isaiah Crowell as an undrafted free agent. Off-the-field issues led to Crowell's undrafted status, but he may be the most talented running back in the entire draft class as a former five-star recruit before signing with Georgia.
4.12 - Sean Beazley (Team 1): Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos
In 13 games with the Broncos last season, Welker finished with 73 receptions on 110 targets for 778 yards, all of which were seven-year lows, and a career-high 10 touchdowns. With Eric Decker out and Emmanuel Sanders in, Welker should see an increase in targets per game in 2014.
> Continue to Round 5
> Go back to Round 3
2014 Fantasy Football rankings from Kevin Hanson:
- 2014 Fantasy Football QB rankings
- 2014 Fantasy Football RB rankings
- 2014 Fantasy Football WR rankings
- 2014 Fantasy Football TE rankings
