CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
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Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
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Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
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TB Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
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Ravens -7
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Bills -1.5
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Cowboys -1.5
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2008 Record: 15-5-1 (75.0%)
See all 2008 Kevin picks
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Since 2006, the Baltimore Ravens are 13-6 at
home and the Oakland Raiders are 3-16 on
the road. Moreover, when an Eastern
timezone team hosts a Pacific timezone team
for a 1 p.m. game, they are 10-0 straight-up
on the season. The Raiders/Ravens game
has a 1 p.m. kickoff. The Raiders offense is
one-dimensional. Although they run the ball
well, the Ravens stop the run even better. The
Ravens are allowing on average only 67.2
rushing yards/game. I expect the Ravens
defense to frustrate the Raiders offense and
cause several turnovers.
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When playing an opponent with a losing
record, the Buffalo Bills are 11-1 against the
spread (ATS). Also, they are 12-3 ATS in
games that have spreads of 3 points or less.
So far, this season the only game the Bills
lost this season is when JP Losman came in
after Trent Edwards was knocked out of the
game in Arizona. On the season, Edwards is
4th in the league with a QB Rating of 98.8 and
has only thrown 2 INTs in 152 pass attempts.
The Bills don't turn the ball over and play solid
defense. Take the Bills and gave the points.
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most
dominant team in the NFL according to the
EDSFootball.com Domination Index when
strength of schedule is included. But the Bucs
are 1-2 on the road losing to 2 offensive
teams with weak defenses (Saints/Broncos).
While Tony Romo is out, the Cowboys offense
still features Marion Barber, Jason Witten,
Terrell Owens and a massive O-Line. Even
though the Bucs are the only team in the NFL
to not allow a rushing TD in 2008, the Cowboys
need to establish a ground attack early. On
the defensive side of the ball, Wade Phillips
will assume play-calling responsibilities and
the Cowboys will get back to basics on the
defensive side of the ball. With their backs
against the wall, I think they play better,
more-focused football at home vs the Bucs.
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Jamie
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-4)
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St. Louis Rams at New England Patriots (-7.5)
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Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
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Titans -4
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Patriots -7.5
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Bills -1.5
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2008 Record: 11-9-1 (55.0%)
See all 2008 Jamie picks
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Due to a rough stretch recently of going with
my gut feeling it's time to look at trends to
climb out of this slump. The Colts have been a
tough team to figure out. One week they look
like they are back and the next they are
getting spanked like a new-born baby in GB.
The Titans are a solid team, are they the best
team in the NFL? I say no, but by having a
rock solid D and a running duo that looked like
Milli Vanilli in last week's post game has led
them to 6-0 ATS this year and 12-2 ATS
against division opponents over the last 3
years. Good enough for me, as like I said not
going with my gut this week.
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Two tough teams here to figure out as well.
The Patriots much like the Colts look great
some weeks and terrible others. And the
Rams after starting terrible have beaten
Dallas and Washington the last 2 weeks.
Which team shows up Sunday? I have no idea
but again lets look at the trends. The Pats are
11-1 ATS in October games over the last 3
seasons and the Rams are 5-13 ATS as an
underdog over the last 2 seasons. Good
enough for me as the trends show coach
hoody won't have to tape the walkthrough.
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This is one of the few games where the trend
agrees with my gut! I think the Bills are
showing they are a real contender in the AFC
and teams seem to be catching up to the Fins
Wildcat. The Bills front 7 should keep it in
check this week as well. Now the all important
trend portion of this week's picks: the Bills are
4-0 ATS versus Miami over the last 3 seasons
and 8-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons vs teams
with losing records. Take the Bills and wear a
grill in honor of M Lynch who I think will break
the century mark for the 1st time this year.
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Dan
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Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
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Washington Redskins (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
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New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
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Bills -1.5
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Redskins -7.5
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Giants +3
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2008 Record: 14-7 (66.7%)
See all 2008 Dan picks
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It is always tough to take a road favorite, and
this matchup is certainly intriguing with the big
play capability the Dolphins bring out of the
Wildcat formation. When you look deeper into
the numbers, all the signs point to Buffalo
carrying the day. For starters, the Bills are 4-2
vs the spread this year, and looked very
impressing in forcing the San Diego offense
into mistakes last week. Buffalo also has
posted 7 wins in their last 8 games against
Miami, which makes this number so enticing. If
you need even more evidence that the Bills
have Miami's number, they have won 4
straight vs the Dolphins in the month of
October, and went 4-2 vs the AFC East last
year losing only to New England. I would look
for Trent Edwards to continue his progression,
and for Lee Evans to have a huge day, as he
is averaging 21 yards a catch, and has 8
touchdowns vs Miami. I would also look for
Buffalo to play the rushing lanes, and force
Chad Pennington to win the game in the air.
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At first look, this selection looks like a bit of a
reach, after all Washington has come off of
two straight sub-par performances against St.
Louis and Cleveland. As always though, when
looking for value, you have to do your
homework, and I have come across some very
significant trends that favor the Redskins.
Washington comes in 4-3 vs the spread, but
in these two teams last 20 games,
Washington has won 18 of them. No matter
how you shake it, that is a very tough number
to get around. The Redskins have regained
their prominence using skilled Running Back
Clinton Portis, who has gained at least 120
yards in each of his last 4 games. I would
look for Washington to pound out a soft Lions
rushing defense that averages 154 yards per
game, and 5.4 yards per carry. Also look for
Washington to use their West Coast passing
attack to press the pace of the game, and
give a dominant performance for 60 minutes.
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On paper, this is the week's best matchup.
Who doesn't like seeing the best rushing
offense vs the best rushing defense in Steeler
country? The Giants come to Pittsburgh with
the best ground game in the league,
averaging an astonishing 170 yards per game.
The Pittsburgh front seven is evoking
memories of the old Steel Curtain only
allowing 70 and 2.9 yards per carry against
their opponents. The bye week for Pittsburgh
couldn't come at a better time, allowing
Roethlisberger and Willie Parker the chance to
heal up from injury, while New York allowed
San Francisco to hang around for quite some
time last week. I look for this game to be won
in the trenches, and the problem I see is with
Pittsburgh's pass blocking. The Steelers have
allowed 21 sacks this year, and that will allow
the Giants pass rush plenty of opportunities to
throw every blitz imaginable. Also, look for a
big day by Giants wideout Plaxico Burress,
making his return home to Pittsburgh, take
the points and go with the road dog.
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Brendan
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Washington Redskins (-7.5) at Detroit Lions
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Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
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Redskins -7.5
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Bills -1.5
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Falcons +9
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2008 Record: 13-6-2 (68.4%)
See all 2008 Brendan picks
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Well I went out a limb last week and took the
Texans and of course they screwed me for
showing faith in them even though they were
up 18 points against the Lions at home but let
the Lions come back and cover. Even with that
I am going against the Lions this week
because I have much more faith in the
Redskins to take care of business and rout the
Lions who clearly are the worst team in
football. The matchup is severely in
Washington's favor as they feature the
league's leading rusher in Clinton Portis and
he gets to go against the second worst run D
in the league. On top of that, the Lions also
give up the most points per game at 31.2
points per game and give up the most total
yards a game at 418.7 which really is horrible.
The Lions had a miraculous cover last week. I
don't expect them to do it 2 weeks in a row.
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I was rather surprised when I saw this line this
week. The 5-1 Bills coming off a nice win
against the Chargers go into 2-4 Miami this
week yet the spread is only 1.5 points. It
seems much too low for a very balanced Bills
team that has a solid defense that only allows
19.7 points a game and has young
playmakers on offense in Lynch and Edwards.
The Dolphins are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20
games against the AFC East. Even if this is a
rivalry I don't see Buffalo losing to an inferior
team so take Buffalo and give Miami the point
and a half.
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Another line I was surprised at was how many
points Atlanta was getting this week. Granted
they've only played 6 games this year so their
sample size isn't huge but I think it's safe to
say that they are a serious playoff contender
this year and Matt Ryan could emerge as a big
time QB in this league down the road. Now I
know they are coming into a hostile
environment this week but hopefully the fans
will be more concerned about the Phillies and
won't be as into the game as usual.
Westbrook is expected to play but he is
banged up and I wouldn't be shocked if he
tried to give it a go but was forced to sit out a
good chunk of this game with those broken
ribs. Also to note, the Falcons are 10-3 ATS in
their past 13 October road games and they
have played 9 straight unders after a bye
week and 9 of their last 10 games against the
NFC East have been under so this is shaping
up to be a low-scoring close game so take the
Falcons and the points and look for them to
cover in Philly.
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Sean
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TB Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-4)
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Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets (-14)
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Cowboys -1.5
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Titans -4
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Chiefs +14
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2008 Record: 11-10 (52.4%)
See all 2008 Sean picks
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I have a feeling this might be common among
some of the Dallas faithful this week. This is
pretty much a make or break week for the
Cowboys with the Giants on deck next week
and a possible record of 4-5 heading into the
bye week. The Cowboys would have to play
almost perfect football down the stretch to
make the playoffs. I think the Romo &
Pacman incident were big distractions around
this team last week. Romo has declared
himself out until after the bye week. Tampa
Bay is the better team right now. Tampa Bays
defense is only 11 yards better this season
than the Dallas defense. Though scoring
defense they are 10 points better, mainly due
to turnovers where they have a +10 advantage
over Dallas. I think Dallas gets back on track
with MB3 and Tampa Bay doesn't have enough
fire power to play with a high-powered Dallas
offense (even without Tony Romo).
Dallas 21 Tampa Bay 17
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Tennessee is 12-2 ATS against division
opponets in its last 14 games. I see this trend
continuing against a bad Indianapolis team.
Tennessee is 4th in the NFL in rushing this
year, while Indy is 28th against the run. The
Titans offensive line will dominate the
under-sized Indianapolis front seven. The
Titans offensive line is very underrated. Most
people couldn't even name one linemen on
their team outside Kevin Mawae, and his fame
came playing with New York. Not only does the
Titans offensive line run block, but they have
a league best low of only 2 sacks allowed all
season. That is pretty impressive through 6
games this season, especially since they have
played some pretty tough defenses this
season. On the flipside of the ball the Titans
are #1 in the NFL with a +6 turnover ratio.
Peyton Manning has struggled this season, 8
TD/7 INT. The free agent departure of G Jake
Scott, the injury of C Jeff Saturday who still
may not be 100%, the inconsistency of tackle
Tony Ugoh who looks awful this season, and
the retirement of T Tarik Glenn has been the
main reason the Colts have struggled on
offense this season. I see their woes
continuing in a hostile environment on
Monday Night Football. There is a lot of
people who haven't bought into Titans
football, after this coming Monday night that
will change.
Tennessee 33 Indianapolis 17
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Double-digit dogs for this season are now a
perfect 7-0 ATS thanks to a late touchdown
pass last week in garbage time. I expect this
trend to continue. I would expect to see a 14
point spread if the Chiefs were playing an elite
offense. The Jets offense is not elite, in fact
they looked pretty pathetic against Oakland
last week. Kansas City even without Larry
Johnson and a decent QB should be able to
keep it within two touchdowns against the Jets.
The Jets should have no problems winning
here, but again I am going with the trend.
NY Jets 23 Kansas City 10
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