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Detroit Lions (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
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Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)
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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
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Lions -3
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Seahawks +1
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Packers -2.5
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And we are back for a new year, and Detroit is
back with a new offensive coordinator, but hey at
least they aren't back with a new top 10 draft
pick wideout! Looking into this matchup, so
many signs point to the Lions aerial assault
having a huge day. Detroit will look to hit Roy
Williams and Calvin Johnson early, and will mix
in rookie Kevin Smith, and missing luggage
victim Rudi Johnson for a 30+ point day. The
Falcons loss of DeAngelo Hall leaves a screen
door secondary in shambles, and combined with
a new Quarterback in Matt Ryan means many
minutes on the field for an average defense at
best. Look for the Lions to win, Kitna to
guarantee 11 wins, and a few good thoughts of
hey at least Joey Harrington isn't the QB
anymore.
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Interesting matchup, and very little history
between the two teams due to interconference
scheduling. However, Buffalo has won 2 out of
the last 3 and lead the all time series 6 games
to 4. Seattle's QB Matt Hasselback has always
been a quick starter, even with his reported
back spasms, Seneca Wallace has proven to be
a capable backup. Although his receiving corps
will have more starters on Injured Reserve
rather than on the sidelines, look for Julius
Jones to have a big day now that he is the clear
cut #1 guy in the backfield. I am still not
completely sold on Trent Edwards, and with the
Bills missing Pro Bowl lineman Jason Peters, the
unheralded but excellent Seattle defense will
look to carry the day. I would look for a low
scoring matchup in Orchard Park, and that
always bodes well for the road dogs.
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Ladies and gentlemen Brett Farve has left the
building, and how weird is it going to be
watching the Packers take the field for Monday
Night without #4 under center? With all the hype
surrounding the offseason Packers for the end
of an era, and lofty praise and predictions
heaped on the Vikings, this game is built for
prime time. History is well in favor of the
Packers, as they have won the past 4 games Vs
Minnesota, and have won 17 of the last 20
games under coach Mike McCarthy. With that
being said, you all know how the KGB doesn't
like to go against the streak, and another
surprising stat is that the Packers D held Adrian
Peterson to less than 50 yards last time out.
Minnesota will struggle to set the line early as
Bryant McKinnie has a 4-game vacation, and do
you really think Tavaris Jackson can lead a
team to 20+ points? The Aaron Rodgers era will
start well, using his deep receiving corps early
and often, and look for Ryan Grant to have a
big day catching the ball out of the backfield
since nobody really runs on the Vikings. Too
much emotion, too much Lambeau, and not
enough quality blocking for the Vikings gives
the Packers fans at least one week to say Brett
who?
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Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-9)
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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Tennessee Titans
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Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
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Chargers -9
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Jaguars -3
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Colts -9.5
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Going into the season there a few teams this
year that are a cut above the rest. Since we
have yet to get a sampling of the regular
season, I am going to go with the teams I know
for a fact are good. Even though San Diego got
off to a slow start last year, I believe they come
out of the gates hot with a chip on their
shoulder. Couple that with the suspension of
Steve Smith and the Tommy John surgery to
Jake Delhomme and I can see the Panthers
struggling to match the Chargers intensity in
their home opener. I like the Chargers D to
shut down a mediocre Panthers offense and
Darren Sproles to be a spark for the Chargers on
special teams. Also to note, the Chargers are
10-1 against the spread in their last 11 games
as favorite and have covered 7 in a row as a
favorite of 8 or more points. Take the Chargers
and lay the points.
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Along with the Chargers, the Jaguars are
considered a Super Bowl contender this year.
They are coming off a 11-5 season in which they
were 11-5 against the spread. They had the
second rated run offense in the league at
149.44 yards a game and to the surprise of
many also had the sixth highest scoring
average at 25.69 points a game. Many
questions marks swirl around Vince Young and
the Titans skill positions this year and they
aren't going to find the answers they are looking
for against John Henderson and the Jags D.
Also to note, the Jags have the best opening
weekend winning percentage at .692 and they
are 6-0 ATS in their past 6 games as favorites.
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And to take another AFC powerhouse I like the
Colts this week even with a hobbled Peyton
Manning. Manning is seasoned enough to take
his first snap of the year in the regular season
and look like he never skipped a beat. The
Bears have been forced to throw Kyle Orton back
into the starting position even though he was
relegated to the third string quarterback after he
was given the starting position before. I always
like the home teams in their openers and I
expect the Lucas Oil Center to create a hostile
environment for a sub-par Bears offense.
Expect the playmakers on the Colts D to force
some turnovers in particular Bob Sanders and
Dwight Freeney. Also to note, the Colts are
13-4-1 in their last 18 games ATS in September.
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St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
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Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (-1)
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Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
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Eagles -6.5
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Bills -1
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Cardinals -2.5
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Donovan McNabb, when fully healthy, finished
2007 strong (816 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT in final 3).
Steven Jackson is back with a new deal, but I
think he might struggle week 1 as he works off
the rust. On the other hand, the Eagles have 3
solid CBs (Samuel, Brown and Shephard) and
Marc Bulger hasn't impressed me much in the
pre-season. I can see the Eagles, who I believe
will make the playoffs in 2008, rough up the
Rams, who won't.
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Last year, the Buffalo Bills started and finished
badly but had a 6-2 stretch from weeks 7-14.
That's when we got a glimpse of their potential.
Despite losing their last 3 of the season, there
are playoff expectations in Orchard Park. Heck,
Donte' Whitner has guaranteed it. The Bills and
fans will be pumped as they face the Seahawks
and their banged up WR corps. In fact, the Bills
were 6-2 ATS at home while the Seahawks were
3-5 ATS on the road in 2007. I'm not
impressed with their new running (umm) attack
of Maurice Morris and Julius Jones. I expect the
Bills to kick off the season with a win.
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Quick? As Sean mentioned on our forums, who
had the most 2nd-half passing TDs?
Considering where I'm asking the question, you
can safely assume it wasn't Alex Smith. Kurt
Warner was hot down the stretch and is being
given the starting job he deserves. Plus, the
Cards have one of the best WR duos in the
league. The Niners don't (Bryant Johnson and
Isaac Bruce). The Cards can score (a lot), the
Niners can't.
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Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Baltimore Ravens
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Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Tennessee Titans
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Ravens +1.5
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Texans +6.5
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Titans +3
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Easy pick for me here. I know the track record
for rookie QB's is not good, but there is way too
many distractions going on in Cincy right now.
Chris Henry is suspended, Chad Johnson isnt
100%, their running attack consists of Chris
"Fragile" Perry & Kenny Watson. Carson Palmer
looked terrible towards the end of last year.
Against a good defense, rookie QB Joe Flacco
will struggle and Baltimore will struggle to win
games at time this year, but against the
Bengals I think he will have a good day. Another
home dog winning outright. Baltimore 23-20
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Upset alert here as well. What do you get when
you throw in a young nasty defensive line up
against an offensive line that gave up 47 sacks
last year, and that lost their best offensive
lineman (arguably) to free agency? Trouble. The
Houston Texans are no joke. I have a feeling
we will be talking about this game a lot on
Monday. Schaub to Johnson will be a household
known duo this season. There is nobody on the
Steelers roster that can stick AJ. I wouldn't be
shocked to see the Texans win this outright
even on the road, but for picking purposes I will
go. Pittsburgh 23 Houston 20
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Over the past 12 divisional games the
Tennessee Titans are 10-2 ATS. Expect this
trend to continue in week 1. Last season the
Titans opened up on the road against
Jacksonville and ran all over them for 282
yards. One thing that is certain when these two
teams meet is it is going to be physical. No
Marcus Stroud up front for the Jags, and a
young and inexperienced D-line for the most
part playing together and I think the Titans will
have their way up front. New OC Mike
Heimerdinger is going to let Vince make plays
with his legs as well with his arm. He has looked
rusty in pre-season, but I expect a bounce back
game this time around. I'm taking Tennessee
with the outright win 17-13
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New York Jets (-3) at Miami Dolphins
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at N.O. Saints (-3.5)
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Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Tennessee Titans
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Jets -3
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Saints -3.5
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Jaguars -3
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For the debut of Favre as a Jet, he couldn't have
gotten a better matchup. Although I think Miami
will be improved this year I think the Jets will be
even better. The Jets are 8-0-1 ATS the last 9 in
this matchup. I also think the Jets know
Pennington a lot more than the Dolphins know
Favre. Take the Jets and give the fins the points
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New Orleans was 6-10 ATS last year, again last
year was well last year. The Saints were a huge
disappointment in '07 but not this year. I expect
them to be much more balanced on both sides
of the ball and Garcia missing pretty much the
whole pre-season will struggle in this one early.
The only thing that scares me is the Saints
schedule being off due to another hurricane.
Fear not take the Saints and give the points.
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Jacksonville was 11-5 ATS in 2007 which well
means nothing in 2008. But what does mean
something to me is Jacksonville is one of the
most complete teams in the NFL and well the
Titans are well the Titans which IMO is a middle
of the road team. I don't see the Titans able to
compete with the balance of the Jags in this one
especially after watching Vince some in the
pre-season. Take the Jags and give the points
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Note: Spreads used to track our record is based on the spread at the time the pick was made.
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