CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
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San Diego Chargers (-6.5) over Miami Dolphins
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Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans
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Tennessee Titans (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
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Chargers -6.5
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Colts -3
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Ravens +3
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2008 Record: 11-3-1 (78.7%)
See all 2008 Kevin picks
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In the Dolphins upset over the Patriots,
Ronnie Brown ran the ball while Joey Porter ran
his mouth. Last week LaDainian Tomlinson
had his first 100-yard rushing game of the
year, but it still feels like he has yet to get
going. But the Chargers still lead the NFL in
scoring (34.5 ppg) as Philip Rivers is 2nd in
the NFL in QB Rating and TD passes. Barring
another 5-TD performance by Brown, I see the
Chargers easily winning this one by a TD.
Also, the Dolphins are 4-12 against the spread
(ATS) in last 16 home games.
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The good news is the Texans schedule gets
easier. The bad news is it starts next week
when they play Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati.
This week, however, they play the Indianapolis
Colts, who have won 11 of the past 12 games
head-to-head vs Houston. Peyton Manning is
24th in the NFL in QB Rating and has thrown
more INTs than TDs. Although the Texans'
strength is their pass rush, the Colts should
have Jeff Saturday and Tony Ugoh back on the
line. Also, Manning will have one of his
favorite targets back in Dallas Clark. It's hard
to envision the Colts starting 2008 with a 1-3
record and the Colts offense to continue
struggling.
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These two teams have stingy defenses. The
Titans are giving up the fewest points (11.5
ppg) and the Ravens are giving up the fewest
yards (186.7 ypg) so far this season. And
both teams are in the top quarter of the
league in offensive rushing ypg. While the
Ravens have been good only 1 of the 3 past
seasons, the Ravens have been tough to beat
at home. Even in their 2 down years (2005
and 2007), the Ravens were 10-6 at home
and 1-15 on the road. I don't see the Titans
coming to M&T and pushing around the
Ravens in their house. Take the Ravens and
the points.
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Jamie
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TB Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-3)
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Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (-17)
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Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (pick 'em)
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Broncos -3
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Cowboys -17
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Bills (pick 'em)
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2008 Record: 9-5-1 (64.3%)
See all 2008 Jamie picks
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Despite the lack of a defense for Denver, I do
still like them to cover this one @ home. With
Cutler / B Marshall / and E "casino" Royal they
will make up anything the D gives up. I
compare them to the Colts from a few years
ago in the passing game. DENVER is 37-19
ATS in home games when playing against a
team with a winning record since 1992. And I
still dont understand why Griese is starting
over Garcia but that's Chucky for ya. Take the
Broncos and give the points.
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I'm assuming this line is so high because
Carson isn't going to play. And that's the
reason I'm taking the 'Boys in this one. This
will be a statement game for them after all the
?'s that came from last week's game. M Barber
will get more than 8 carries in this game and
the Cowboys will roll as Ocho Cinco asks to be
traded by halftime to the 'Boys. The Bungles
also welcome Cedric Benson, haven't they
learned anything? Take the Pokes and give
the 17
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Strange this game is a pick'em? I think
Buffalo has one of the better front 7's and will
pressure Warner into more mistakes this
week. With Boldin likely out, this seems like
an easy choice. As I do believe Buffalo is the
best team currently in the AFC East, I might
even go as far as to say the AFC. BUFFALO is
11-2 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bills in this
one
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Dan
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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
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Washington Redskins at Phil. Eagles (-6)
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New England Patriots (-3) at SF 49ers
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Chargers -6.5
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Redskins +6
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Patriots -3
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2008 Record: 11-4 (73.3%)
See all 2008 Dan picks
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Have the Chargers found thier swagger? Will
Miami translate their win in New England into
momentum? Will the Dolphins douse coach
Tony Sparano with Gatorade again? The
answer you need to this game is in the third
statement. When a team that has a culture of
losing enacts this behavior you know it will be
a long season. San Diego is a blown call away
from being 3-1 straight up, but they come into
this week's contest with a 3-1 record vs the
spread. Running Back LaDanian Tomlinson is
starting to show his form of old, and the
Chargers know they have another reliable
backup in Darren Sproles. Chargers QB Philip
Rivers is starting to cement himself in Norv
Turner's offense, and his numbers right now
are backing up his mouth. I don't think that
Miami has the vertical game to test the
Chargers defense, especially with the lack of
Pennington's arm strength. Miami also comes
in with a 4.1 yards per carry average, numbers
heavily inflated by their destruction of the
Patriots off gimmick plays. That is the whole
problem for this game, their aren't enough
tricks in the bag, as spreading your QB and
Ronnie Brown taking snaps is on film for all to
see. Lay the points and watch the Chargers
explode.
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The first week of the year everyone said Jim
Zorn and Washington QB Jason Campbell
looked overmatched, now they are the darlings
of the pundits. The true measure of the
Redskins lies somewhere in between, as they
take another roadtrip to an NFC East rival.
Washington comes in 3-1 vs the spread, and
off a huge road win in Dallas. Philidelphia
comes in a little big staggered after dropping
a game to a tough Chicago defense on the
goalline. Granted star RB Brian Westbrook was
missing in action. These two teams are always
close when they play each other, the margin of
points combined in the last 5 games is 15,
and I am sure you can find the 6 in there.
Again this is a game of familiarity, and I don't
think Washington deserves to be a 6-point
dog in a division game, and assuming the line
is this high means Westbrook will be starting.
Look for Philly D-Coordinator Jim Johnson to
dial up every imaginable blitz vs the Redskins,
and for Philly to use their screen and quick
slant game instead of trying to go over the
top. I would look for this game to be close,
calling it a must win for Philly to keep pace in
the division, but by no more than a field goal.
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Quite simply, bounce-back game and the
Patriots have something to prove after getting
an extra week to digest their performance at
home against Miami. The bad news for the
49ers is that the Patriots have had an extra
week, to put in an offense more suited to Matt
Cassel's style. Nobody ever has their team
better prepared to play than a Bill Belichick
coached team, and although New England has
an aging defense, it is full off pride looking for
redemption. San Fransico has stumbled after
starting 2-0 out of the gate, and I do look for
their excellent linebacker of Patrick Willis to
close up the running holes. The problem is
that the 49ers rank 22nd vs the pass, and
gave up an eye popping 363 yards to New
Orleans last week. I would look for Randy
Moss to be established early and often, and
as always a strong day for Wes Welker. Look
for New England to come out strong, and for
the defense to force J.T O'Sullivan to beat
them in the air.
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Brendan
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Tennessee Titans (-3) at Baltimore Ravens
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New England Patriots (-3) at SF 49ers
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TB Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-3)
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Titans -3
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Patriots -3
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Broncos -3
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2008 Record: 9-4-2 (69.2%)
See all 2008 Brendan picks
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I went undefeated last week so I am going to
start my picks this week with another
undefeated team: the Tennessee Titans.
Who would have thought Kerry Collins would
be able to manage a team and not make
mistakes but that's exactly what he's done
since he took over for the injured Vince Young.
Chris Johnson is second in the AFC in rushing
and LenDale White can pound the ball and get
the tough yards and get the ball into the
endzone as evidenced by his 5 rushing
touchdowns. Baltimore is banged up at
runningback as McGahee was forced to leave
the game last week and is questionable this
week. Tennessee has only allowed 46 points
so far this season and I don't see the
Baltimore offense to be able to move the ball
on them.
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I really like to stay away from picking the
Patriots, because I am a fan, but this week
was just to tempting to stay away. Anytime
you give that coaching staff an extra week to
prepare for a team it usually spells disaster for
that team, especially if they have an
inexperienced QB at the helm like the Niners
do in JT O'Sullivan. The Patriots were
embarassed at home 2 weeks ago against
Miami and should come out of the gate hot
this week to prove all the doubters wrong. The
Pats still have enough weapons on offense to
put points on the board and I expect their
defense to force some turnovers this week and
should be able to cover the spread in San
Fran. Also to note, the Pats are 9-0 in their
past 9 ATS in the month of October.
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I realize that as I am making this pick I am
taking 3 favorites this week but I feel like last
week was a week for the underdogs so the
lines are a little to low this week and the
favorites will benefit from this. Denver has
won 5 consecutive games at home and boast
the leagues most potent offense averaging
435.5 yards per game. Jay Cutler is
establishing himself as a ProBowl quarterback
this year and has already thrown for 1,275
yards this year which is good for second in the
league. I think the Broncos were humiliated
last week and will come out this week with a
chip on their shoulder and air it out on Tampa.
The Broncos do have a weak run D but Tampa
has not been able to establish a consistent
running game yet this year so I like Denver to
cover at home.
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Sean
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Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans
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Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-7)
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New England Patriots (-3) at SF 49ers
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Colts -3
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Seahawks +7
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Patriots -3
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2008 Record: 8-7 (53.3%)
See all 2008 Sean picks
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I had to double take on this one. -3? Are you
kidding me? This game screams blow out all
over it. Houston is not a bad team, don't get
me wrong. They took Jacksonville to the limit
last week. With the extra week of rest that
Indy had, I expect a huge game out of Peyton
Manning and the offense. The past 3 seasons
after a bye week the Colts have outscored
their opponents 105-50, and those opponents
weren't terrible either. (Jacksonville,
Washington & New England) That is a little bit
more than 18 pts a game margin of victory.
Not only will the Colts win this game, they will
beat the Texans by double digits, this is the
lock of the year. Tony Dungy and this team is
too good to let the Colts to start the season
1-3. The Colts will win this won big.
Indy 38, Houston 17
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The New York Football Giants have not played
a single good team this season. The
Washington Redskins were probably the worst
team in the NFL heading into week 1. They
were absolutely terrible in the preseason and it
carried over into week 1. Since then, the Skins
look for real under Jim Zorn. The G-men
crushed the Rams in week 2, and then
struggled with a bad Cincy team at home in
week 3. The NY Giants have won only once in
the past 6 seasons after a bye week. I expect
this trend to continue. Seattle has struggled
defensively this year, but the key to this game
is the WRs. Plaxico Burress out, Bobby Engram
in. Seattle will not only cover, but I have a
strong hunch that they will win this game
outright. (I did call the KC victory last week!!!)
Seattle 23, NY Giants 21
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Absolutely crazy line here. I am sorry, but this
is another lock. A very easy week of picks this
week. I hate Coach Hoodie more than anyone
else, but I think that extra week off is going to
be absolutely huge for them this week. They
are going to bring the heat to inexperienced
JT O'Sullivan and this game will be over by
halftime. Randy Moss will get back on track
this week, and so will Matt Cassel. Drew Brees
threw all over this defense last week with a
bunch of misfit WR's. An average QB with
all-pro WR's should do about the same. I
think this game turns around the Patriots
season. No way do the 49ers keep this game
close. I am thinking 3 team parlay action with
these picks this week. I think all are LOCKS !
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