CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3)
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New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-3)
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Ravens +3
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Jets -3
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Patriots -3
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2008 Record: 13-4-1 (76.5%)
See all 2008 Kevin picks
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The Miami Dolphins are 3 seconds away from
putting together a 3-game winning streak.
Ronnie Brown has scored in the past 4 games
and has 7 rushing TDs during that span. But
now the 'Fins play the stingy Ravens defense
that has allowed the fewest rushing yards per
game (66.2 ypg). The Ravens have lost their
last 3 games but to top AFC teams (Steelers,
Titans and Colts). With the exception of last
week's blowout, the Ravens have played 4
solid games: 2 wins and 2 3-point losses to
Pittsburgh and Tennessee. Although I expect
the Ravens to win this game straight-up, I
think the worst-case scenario is they keep it
close and give the Ravens a chance to cover.
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The New York Jets are a good not great
football team, but Brett Favre and the offense
are starting to gel. Favre turned the ball over
twice last week, but completed his highest
percentage of passes last week (over 75%).
He has 10 passing TDs in the past 3 weeks.
The Oakland Raiders are a franchise in
disarray (although disarray might be too weak
of a word). In their last 11 games with
spreads of 3 points or less, the Raiders are
2-9 against the spread (ATS). More
specifically, they are 3-12 ATS as home
underdogs when receiving 3 points or less
since 1992. And in their last 18 home games,
they are 5-13 ATS.
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In sticking with my "AFC East 3-point favorite"
theme, are you ready for some (Monday
Night) football? The Broncos are terrible.
When I say terrible, I mean against the
spread. On the season, they are 1-5 ATS. In
the last 3 years, they are 11-27 ATS. The
Patriots aren't as bad as we saw last week in
San Diego. I think if the Pats weren't coming
off such a lopsided loss, the spread would
probably be closer to 7 points. I can't see
Belichick not having this team prepared to
bounce back. Take the Pats and give the
points.
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Jamie
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New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders
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Seattle Seahawks at TB Buccaneers (-10.5)
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Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Green Bay Packers
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Jets -3
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Bucs -10.5
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Colts -2
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2008 Record: 11-6-1 (64.7%)
See all 2008 Jamie picks
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The Jets are giving 3 points to the Raiders in
Oakland. Am I missing something here? 3
points? The Jets should win this by 10+ as the
Raiders are still struggling on offense. Is
JaMarcus the problem or is it the lack of option
@ WR? I mean come on AL you went out and
got your #1 WR in the offseason for what like
$56 million? OAK is 6-15 ATS after 2 or more
consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons
Take the Jets here and give the points.
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Normally when I see lines over 10 I tend to
stay away. But looking at this game I'm
thinking Holmgren wished he did his goodbye
tour last year. Hasselbeck will be out but
mostly likely Wallace will be in and the Tampa
2 isn't something to look forward to. I look for
Tampa's D to outscore the Seahawks this
week and win this easily as Garcia is back
under center and could also have Galloway
back this week.
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Is Indy back? Manning has looked more and
more like his MVP-self with each passing week
and it appears Bigby will miss another game
for the Pack. The loss of Addai for the Colts
won't mean much since he's usaully taking
himself out of games anyway. I'm still not sold
on Rodgers and don't see him playing a
flawless game this week which I think he would
need for the Pack to take this one. Take the
Colts and give the points.
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Dan
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Tennessee Titans (-8) at Kansas City Chiefs
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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3)
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Titans -8
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Bears -3
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Saints +3
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2008 Record: 12-6 (66.7%)
See all 2008 Dan picks
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We are back for another weekend of great
football, and hopefully for me getting back on
the winning track. Last week was kind of weird,
but this week has more favorable matchups.
We have the only undefeated team left in the
league in Tennessee coming into Arrowhead to
play the woeful Chiefs. This game will be won
in the trenches, and won on the ground, so
let's compare the two teams. Kansas City
comes into this game boasting the worst
ranked rushing defense in the NFL compared
to the Titans Thunder and Lightning
combination of Chris Johnson and LenDale
White. The Chiefs have suspended their all-
world back Larry Johnson, and also Brody
Croyle makes his return under center for
Kansas City. Every sign points to a Tennessee
advantage: passing, defense, special teams,
coaching, and they also have posted a 5-0
record vs the spread this year. The most
important rule ever when looking at a game is
to never go against the streak. Lay the points
and take the Titans, this will not be a trap
game for the superior team led by Jeff Fischer.
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A classic NFC North tilt features two teams
desperately needing a win to create
separation in their division. The Bears come in
after a heart-breaking loss to the Falcons,
while the Vikings cannot take much
momentum from barely escaping Detroit.
Chicago is starting to gain rhythm on offense
led by a resurgent passing attack of Kyle
Orton to converted wide receiver Devin Hester.
Hester must really hate the color purple as he
has 3 TD's in their last three contests, two
punt returns, and a receiving TD as well.
Although Chicago has lost their last two
games on game-winning drives, I do believe
the Vikings have the punch to put 17 on the
board vs a very stalwart defense. Chicago has
posted a winning 3-2 record vs the spread
compared to Minnesota's lousy 1-5 vs the
number. Look for a strong day by Matt Forte,
and a balanced attack led by Orton to carry
the day. One extra intangible is Chicago will
enjoy some home cooking at Soldier Field
where they are 12-3 in their last 15 games.
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I am always high on the underdog, and the
Saints have the most favorable matchup to
pull the upset from the right side of the page
this week. New Orleans comes in after
dismantling a a sub-par Raiders squad, and
Carolina looks to right their ship after getting
pasted by Tampa Bay. The Saints will look to
gain ground in the NFC South, and boast a
lofty 5-1 record vs the spread this year. Drew
Brees comes off one of his greatest passing
days, and will look to exploit the Panthers
front seven that were beaten handily by
Tampa's one-two combination last week.
Carolina still has yet to get their passing game
on track, perhaps the suspension of Steve
Smith is still ringing deep into week 7. I would
give the edge of offense to New Orleans, and
don't be surprised if Reggie Bush breaks a
punt return for a TD during this game, and
adds a great change of pace with Deuce
McAllister in the backfield. Also, New Orleans is
still the only NFC South team without a division
loss, and will keep the streak going this week.
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Brendan
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Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (-9)
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New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders
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Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7)
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Texans -9
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Jets -3
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Browns +7
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2008 Record: 12-4-2 (75.0%)
See all 2008 Brendan picks
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I'm not sure if I am just getting too cocky at
this point now that I'm 12-1-2 in my past 15
picks and that I nailed the Rams game last
week but I have a feeling about the Texans
this week and normally I would stay away from
them but I am going with my gut on this one.
Matt Schaub returned from injury and did what
Rosenfels couldn't do the week before and
that was lead his team to victory in the 4th
quarter. I think this team is starting to get
some positive momentum and have a perfect
matchup to put everything together this week
against the Lions. They just traded arguably
their most talented player in Roy Williams, Jon
Kitna has been put on injured reserve even
though he claims he's not injured, and to top it
all off they are starting former UConn QB Dan
Orvlosky. Even before all of this, they were
ranked dead last in the Domination Index.
Enough said, take the Texans and lay the
points at home.
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Keeping on my theme from last week, I am
going to go against the Raiders until they
prove me otherwise. I think the line is very
manageable for the Jets and honestly I would
probably take them even if they were a
touchdown favorite this week. I just don't see
Oakland doing much on either side of the ball
as evidenced by their blowout against the
Saints last week. Thomas Jones finally came
through with a big game last week with 2
touchdowns and Favre seems to be getting
into a groove with Cotchery and Coles. The
Jets D should have a decent day pressuring
the QB and forcing Russell into a couple
turnovers will allow the Jets to score on a short
field. Also to note the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in
their last 9 road games in October.
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A lot of dogs covered last week but one was
actually able to pull the upset. The Rams
went into Washington and not only played
them tough but hit a 49-yarder as time
expired to pull off the upset of the week and
perhaps the upset of the season. Now I'm not
taking the Rams this week this week because
of the uncertainty with the QB situation in
Dallas but I am going against the Redskins
again this week. The Browns showed they still
have some fight in them with their 35-14
dismantling of the defending SuperBowl
champions on Monday night. Braylon Edwards
finally showed up and reminded everyone why
he was such a high fantasy pick and one of
the most dangerous receivers in the league. I
think they build on that win and come into
Washington with a little swagger this week
while the Redskins have to be questioning
themselves after a huge letdown this week. I
think this could be a case where the Browns
weren't as bad as they were playing to start
the season and the Redskins weren't as good
as they were playing. Also to note the Skins
are 2-6-1 in their past 9 ATS in October. Take
the Browns and the 7 points and expect a
close game.
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Sean
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Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Green Bay Packers
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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (pick)
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Seattle Seahawks at TB Buccaneers (-10.5)
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Colts -2
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Chargers pick 'em
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Seahawks +10.5
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2008 Record: 10-8 (55.5%)
See all 2008 Sean picks
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The Colts have played some pretty bad
football this season. They are last in the
league in rushing offense & 29th in rushing
defense. The Colts are playing this week
without RB Joseph Addai. On the flipside with
Green Bay, running back Ryan Grant is having
a horrible season only averaging 3.4 yds per
carry. Grant should get back on track this week
against a poor run defense. Still questions in
Green Bay about the health of Aaron Rodgers.
This smells like a possible trap. Indy has a
Monday Nighter the following week against the
1st-place Titans and could be looking ahead,
injured running back, bad defense...but this is
a Tony Dungy coached team with the best QB
in the NFL who has a ton of weapons to throw
to. I think Manning and the Colts continue
rolling here with another impressive win. Indy
31 Green Bay 23
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Everyone watched and loved the San Diego
Chargers destroy the New England Patriots on
national television on Sunday night. San
Diego offensively is led this year by the
league's #1 passer in Philip Rivers, not future
Hall of Famer LT. LT and Pro Bowl TE Antonio
Gates have been slowed with injuries since the
start of this year. Rivers has looked like a Pro
Bowler even playing with a banged up bunch
of weapons. Tomlinson is starting to look
healthy again, and Darren Sproles is a nice
compliment. Vincent Jackson finally had
somewhat of a breakout game himself.
Defensively, San Diego was a train wreck at
the beginning of the season, but has allowed
under 20 pts in 3 straight now. I think the key
to this game is turnovers. Buffalo makes a lot
more mistakes than San Diego does. San
Diego has a +4 turnover ratio, while Buffalo
has a -3 ratio so far this season. Trent
Edwards has looked good, but I think San
Diego's defense steps up and will hold their
opponent to under 20 in 4 straight weeks, and
win this one on the road.
San Diego 28 Buffalo 17
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Here is an interesting stat for you this year
that I figured out. Double-digit underdogs this
season are undefeated ATS. Quick run down:
Week 3 - Buffalo (-10) barely won vs Oakland,
Patriots (-12.5) lost to Miami, Week 4 - Dallas
(-10.5) lost to Washington. Week 5 Dallas
(-16) barely won vs Cincy, was close late.
Week 6 - Minnesota (-13) won last seconds vs
Detroit, Washington (-13) lost vs St.Louis. So
6-0 ATS, and 3-3 straight up, which is pretty
crazy if you think of it. This is the NFL and
crazy things happen. Should Seattle contend
with Tampa Bay? Probably not, the way they
have played this year. I think Seattle will keep
this game close. Tampa doesn't have that
juggernaut offense to put teams away.
**UPSET ALERT**
Tampa 24 Seattle 20
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