|
|
|
|
|
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions
|
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
|
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals (-6)
|
Packers -3
|
Titans +1
|
Cardinals -6
|
2008 Record: 6-0 (100%)
|
This game has trap written all over it, but I
can't resist. In fact, I consider this to be the
"lock" of the week (another reason why it
might be a trap). But here's how I look at it -
what has changed on the Packers from 2007
to 2008? Aside from Brett Favre, there's not
much else. Although I don't expect the
Packers to repeat their 13-3 performance, this
team is good. Really good. The Lions are
not. After Michael "The Burner" Turner
scorched the Lions run defense for 220, I
expect Ryan Grant to put up gaudy numbers.
This one will be over at halftime.
|
There is one thing the Bengals can't do well
(stop the run) that the Titans can (run). I'm
surprised by this line. Even though Vince
Young is out, he was being booed in Nashville
by Titan fans before he got hurt. And they
won. So, we'll see how much the loss of #10
hurts the Titans. Chris Johnson and LenDale
White provide a 1-2 punch that will knock out
these lightweights from the Queen City. Look
for the Titans to knock the Bengals in the
mouth and for the Bengals to leave more
banged up than they already are. Plus, the
Titans are 11-5 in last 16 games ATS.
|
I saw an interesting stat involving "grass" and
couldn't resist with Ricky Williams in the
game. The Dolphins are 4-9-2 ATS in their
last 15 games on grass while the Cardinals
are 11-4 in their last 15 games on grass. The
Arizona Cardinals are my pick to win the NFC
West, which isn't saying much, but the Cards
have a great offense with Kurt Warner at the
helm. Look for Edgerrin James and Tim
Hightower to have good games against a run
defense that was 32nd in the NFL in 2007.
|
| |
|
|
|
|
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)
|
New York Giants (-9) at St. Louis Rams
|
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)
|
Patriots +1
|
Rams +9
|
Bills +5
|
2008 Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
|
Is Tom Brady really worth 7.5 pts per game? If
Brady were starting, this would be the Patriots
by 6 easy. You obviously have a big dropoff
when it comes to Brady vs Cassel, but Brady
was not the only reason why the Pats have
been so successful. Randy Moss can make
any QB look good, made millions for Daunte
Culpepper. Morris & Maroney are solid at RB.
Defense although getting holder is still a very
good unit. The Jets, on the other hand, have
made some offensive improvements, but this
team struggled against a pretty bad Miami
team last week. Don't drink that Brett Favre
kool-aid just yet. Remember Favre really has
only played well in like 2 of his last 5 seasons.
Even though I hate him with a passion, B.B will
get his team together and show the rest of the
league, that just because Brady is gone,
doesn't mean the New England Patriots are
gone. I think the Patriots win the game
outright and by more than a touchdown.
Patriots 27 Ny Jets 17
|
Every week in the NFL, a team can beat
anyone. This game may actually surprise
some people. Not only will the Rams keep this
game close, they will be in this game down to
the end with a possible pick upset in the
makings. I love home underdogs. 2-0 last
week selecting home dogs, (both won
outright) I expect my success to continue
here. The more Steven Jackson plays, the
better he will get. He has already seen over
50% of the Rams offensive plays this year.
They may not be the fastest show on turf
anymore, but they can sneak up on people.
The Giants didn't impress me too much in
week 1 against a bad Washington team, run
with the points this week.
NY Giants 23 St.Louis 21
|
Jacksonville lost both of their starting guards
in week 1 versus Tennessee. Jacksonville is
going to struggle running the football again in
week 2, because Buffalo's D-line is the most
underrated D-line in the NFL, no doubt about
that. Trent Edwards gives Buffalo their first
legit looking QB in years. Marshawn Lynch is
deadly, and the Bills have plenty of firepower
at the WR position. I have Jacksonville
missing the playoffs in my season preview,
and I really believe that they will not live up to
the hype in 2008. Buffalo will be taking that
final playoff spot this year, and this may
possibly be that tie-breaker game. This game
puts the Buffalo Bills officially on the map.
Buffalo 19 Jacksonville 13
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Minnesota Vikings
|
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
|
New England Patriots at New York Jets (-1)
|
Colts -2
|
Titans +1
|
Jets -1
|
2008 Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
|
I see the Colts rebounding on the road here
vs the Vikes. I see a fairly low scoring game
and the Colts will look to shut down AP and
pressure T Jackson into mistakes. Even
though Clark is most likely out this week, it
will just mean more looks for A Gonzalez.
Addai wont be much of a factor in the running
game as nobody can really run vs the Vikes
but I do see some dump-off passes coming
his way. And can the Vikings stop the Colts
weapons on the outside? I think not. The
Vikes are 4-9 ATS @ home the last 13. Take
the Colts here
|
Cincy is actually giving points to someone?
That team has been a mess all offseason and
still is. Even if Haynesworth doesn't play, Tenn
will still shut down the lack of a running game
and get pressure on Palmer all day.
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when
playing on the road against Cincinnati and well
since they are getting a point and I consider
Cincy in shambles, take the Titans on the
Marvin Lewis goodbye tour. And I think it will
be better for the Titans with K Collins in.
|
I'm not going to mention any past trends with
this matchup as both teams are not the same
this year. The Jets added a ton of talent on
both sides of the ball and well the Pats with
the exception of Mayo got even older on D.
These two teams hate each other for obvious
reasons and I expect a low scoring game.
Cassell will not kill the Pats but the Jets will
get the better of this matchup. Take the Jets
@ home and give the points.
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
|
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
|
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions
|
Browns +6.5
|
Eagles +6.5
|
Packers -3
|
2008 Record: 4-2 (66.7%)
|
Some may think this pick is a stretch, due to
the fact that last week Pittsburgh went Donkey
Kong with the Texans front seven, and
Cleveland was smashed at home by Dallas.
Well, in researching this game, I have found a
few gems that make this division game very
attractive for entertainment purposes. First
let's start off with the number, conventional
wisdom is that you get a field goal to start for
being at home, and than giving 6.5 on the
road to a playoff-caliber team. Yes, Pittsburgh
has won the last 9 meetings in a row, but
Cleveland has won 7 of their last 8 at home,
and Derek Anderson of the Browns is a 7-2
starter at home. I would look for Pittsburgh to
win the game, but it will be a classic hard-
fought contest. After all, Cleveland was a
dynamic 11-5 vs the spread last year, and I
look for them to have a bounce-back game
after Dallas emptied both barrels.
|
It certainly looks like a dog week doesn't it,
but than again anytime I see a divisional
matchup spread greater than 6 points it will
always pique my interest. Last week both
Dallas and Philadelphia crushed their
opponents, both games were over by
half-time. To KGB's eyes, this contest is very
much closer than the line indicates. McNabb
looked healthy, and more importantly has a
healthy Brian Westbrook who always creates
mismatches for the Dallas defense. For the
Dallas running attack, Barber could be out or
slowed with an injury sustained vs Cleveland,
and Dallas is 11-1 when he carries the ball
over 10 times. Pure and simple, the key to
this game can be found in researching the
past. Philly has won 3 out of the last 4 games,
and the total points by both teams is 106 to
98 advantage Philadelphia, surely you can find
the 6.5 points in there. Oh and if Jessica
Simpson shows up for this game in that pink
Romo shirt, lay everything you have, and your
families estate on the game, as that girl is an
albatross for Dallas.
|
I think it's a divisional matchup type of week,
and I look for the Aaron Rogers era to keep
the momentum up as they travel to Detroit. If
you can believe it, Detroit looks even worse
after steadily picking in the top ten of the
draft. Heck they even fooled the KGB last
week, going into Atlanta, and looking like
NCAA cupcake warm-up team for a Division I
powerhouse. Detroit is now 10-23 under Head
Coach Marinelli, and 1-8 in thier last nine
games, seriously a whole new front office
including janitors is needed here. Meanwhile,
the Packers have posted 13 wins in their last
15 tries vs the Honolulu Blue crew. Look for
Ryan Grant to obliterate any of the holes
Michael Turner may have missed while getting
oxygen for posting 200+ yards, and Aaron
Rodgers to keep our good friends in
Wisconsin happily yelling, "Ah forget that #4
guy with the V in his name, this guy shouldn't
have been on the bench this long."
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Detroit Lions
|
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
|
San Diego Chargers (-1) at Denver Broncos
|
Packers -3
|
Eagles +6.5
|
Broncos +1
|
2008 Record: 3-3 (50.0%)
|
In probably the most picked game of the
week, I am going to follow the trend and take
the Packers over the Lions this week. The 3
point spread almost seems to good to be true
which means it probably is but on paper this is
way too low. The Lions D just gave up 318
yards on the ground to a couple of household
names in Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.
Aaron Rodgers must have a huge weight off
his back now that he completed over 80% of
his passes in his first start that was more
scrutinized than Palin's speech at the
Republican Convention. Also of note the
Packers are 7-1-1 in their past 9 against the
spread.
|
In the marquee game of the week that could
already determine the fate of the NFC East, I
like the Eagles to cover in Big D. Both teams
were very impressive in week 1, which is why I
think this will be a battle to the end where a
play here or there will determine the game.
McNabb and Westbrook should be able to put
up enough points to keep it close and if the
Eagles D can pressure Romo like they did in
their week 15 matchup last year (4 sacks and
3 interceptions) they could possibly steal one
for the much hyped Cowboys. Marion Barber
also injured his ribs last game and will have to
wear a brace this game and could be limited.
Also to note, the Eagles are 7-1 against the
spread in their past 8 as underdogs.
|
So I am going to compare myself to the
Chargers - lots of talent but a slow starter. If
you can recall last year the Chargers started
out last year 1-3 and a lot of people
questioning if they are a real contender. After
a heart-breaking last second loss to a less
talented Carolina squad at home, it appears
they are off to a similar start this year.
Couple that with the fact they lose their
playmaker and captain on defense in Shawn
Merriman I'm surprised they are considered
favorites on the road against the Broncos in
their home opener. Cutler and surprise rookie
receiver Eddie Royal threw the ball all over the
Raiders last week and look to build on that
with the addition of uber-talented receiver
Brandon Marshall. I also love home dogs in
their opener. Also to note, the Chargers are
2-6 in their past 8 games on the road in
September.
|
| |
|
|
|
