CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13)
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
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Jaguars +3.5
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Vikings -13
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Colts -4.5
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2008 Record: 11-3-1 (78.7%)
See all 2008 Kevin picks
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I expect the Jaguars to re-establish their
running game this week against a defense
that struggles to stop the run. The Broncos
average 415 ypg of offense, ranking them
second in the NFL. Although Jay Cutler and
Brandon Marshall are the main components of
the Broncos offense, the Broncos will be
missing Tony Scheffler and Selvin Young this
week. This game will be close and the trends
favor the Jags. The Jags are 12-5 against the
spread (ATS) as underdogs in past 3 years
and the Broncos are 5-14 ATS at home in the
past 3 years and 11-26 ATS overall.
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Although the Vikings are only 1 game out of
first in the NFC North, they are not the Super
Bowl contender I thought they'd be. While
we're on the topic of disappointment, Jon
Kitna mentioned he would be disappointed if
the Lions didn't win 10 games this year. As
the least dominant team according to the
latest Domination Index, the Lions look
unlikely to win even 1 game despite Roy
Williams saying the Lions have a "realistic
chance of making the playoffs." The Lions
are 3-10 ATS vs division opponents and 4-14
in road games over the past 3 years. They
have virtually 0% chance of stopping Adrian
Peterson, who will live up his "All Day"
nickname.
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The Indianapolis Colts, who I picked to
represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, have
started the Lucas Oil Stadium era 0-2. Will
they really start 0-3 at home? Granted, they
won (and covered) based partly on luck vs
Houston (see: Super Man Sage Rosenfels).
And without Bob Sanders (again), the Colts are
struggling to stop the run (again), which is
what the Ravens one-dimensional offense
does well. That being said, it's sometimes
luck (like last week) that kickstarts an offense
that is as potent as the Colts offense. If the
Colts can score early, the Ravens and their
rookie QB Joe Flacco will struggle to play catch
up. In the past 3 seasons, the Ravens are
5-12 ATS on the road while the Colts are 12-9
ATS at home.
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Jamie
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Philadelphia Eagles (-5) at SF 49ers
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Carolina Panthers at TB Buccaneers (-1)
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
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Eagles -5
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Panthers +1
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Colts -4.5
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2008 Record: 9-5-1 (64.3%)
See all 2008 Jamie picks
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I'm looking for Philly to get back to winning
this week as Gore will find it very tough to run
and even though playing well I. Bruce should
be shut down vs the Eagle corners as JT looks
like a deer in headlights this week. Eagles win
this one going away with or without Westbrook
as McNabb takes the team on his back this
week. Philly is 7-0 ATS off a loss against a
division rival over the last 3 seasons, Give the
points and take the Eagles.
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Is this the week Chucky realizes his team is
better suited to run the ball instead of
throwing 50 times? Probably since his latest
whipping boy Garcia might be back under
center though I don't think it will matter in this
one. Carolina is looking like a solid contendor
as Delhomme isn't showing the off-season
surgery killed him. This will be a close contest
but look for Carolina to win it outright.
Carolina is 3-1 straight up against Tampa
over the last 3 seasons.
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Are the Colts going to use last week's
comeback as momentum this week? Granted
Sage isn't on the Ravens although a rookie is
playing on the road against what is usaully a
loud crowd. Peyton and his weapons can
handle the impressive Ravens D and should
win this one by 7+ @ home. Balt is 1-8 ATS on
the road over the last 2 seasons. Take the
Colts and give the points.
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Dan
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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (-13.5)
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Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2)
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Redskins -13.5
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Ravens +4.5
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Packers +2
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2008 Record: 11-4 (73.3%)
See all 2008 Dan picks
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Every year there is a team to pick on, and the
St. Louis Rams have volunteered to take the
collar in 2008. This team is so horrible, they
fired their coach after an 0-4 start, at least
former Dolphins coach Cam Cameron got to
take his team to 1-15. Washington comes in
4-1 vs the spread, against the Rams 0-4
record vs the number. So far the buzz has
been Jason Campbell taking to the new West
Coast offense, and Halfback Clinton Portis
enjoying a huge year. I will let you in on a little
secret though, the Washington defense is the
engine driving the team so far. The Redskins
D has held all of the teams they have played
under their points per game average, except
for Philidelphia. I would look for a huge day
out of Portis and Tight End Chris Cooley, and
for the insertion of Jim Haslett as interim
coach to have no big impact. If you need even
more stats to back up the big number,
remember Washington has downed St. Louis 3
of the last 4 times.
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Personal bias aside, and I really do despise
the Colts, this Indianapolis team has to be
the luckiest so far in the 2008 campaign. They
were two of the most boneheaded plays away
from losing at Houston, and pulled an
improbable victory out against Minnesota
thanks to Tarvaris Jackson. Good thing they
are playing a rookie QB this week, right? Yes,
they have been bailed out by opposing inept
quarterbacks, but their run defense is the
worst in the league giving up 188 yards per
game. The Colts really miss Bob Sanders, and
there is nothing that the Ravens like to do
better than pound the ball with Willis McGahee
and Le'Ron McClain. Baltimore comes into the
game 3-1 vs the spread, and will look to
impose their will with a bruising running game.
Indy posts a 1-2 record vs the number, and
will have trouble getting the running game
with Addai established. Watch Baltimore stack
up the box, and dare Manning to beat them
over the top, and with Ed Reed patrolling the
secondary, it will a long day for the
Thundering Herd.
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Wow, what happened to the Packers last week,
they were run over by Michael Turner, and out
managed by Matt Ryan. All is fine in Titletown,
a game Aaron Rodgers still threw for 300 yards
and 3 scores last week, and they will look to
get Ryan Grant started early on Sunday. The
Seahawks spent last Sunday getting blown off
the field, and this week's installment of the
Mike Holmgren farewell tour looks to be more
of the same. Green Bay comes with a 4-1
record in the last 5 against Seattle, which
includes two playoff victories, simply put Green
Bay has their number. Seattle still has a
banged up receiving corps, perhaps they
should try that Wildcat play that has given
Miami two wins. Seattle has posted a 1-3
record vs the spread, and I look for Green Bay
coach Mike McCarthy to come up with a run
stopping strategy. Green Bay has never lost 4
in a row with McCarthy at the helm, and they
will need to keep pace with the Chicago Bears
in the NFC North. As a bonus I would take the
over in this game as the two teams are a
combined 8-1 vs that number, well you
know...if gambling were legal.
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Brendan
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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (-13.5)
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Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
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Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2)
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Rams +13.5
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Saints -7.5
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Packers +2
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2008 Record: 9-4-2 (69.2%)
See all 2008 Brendan picks
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2 of the 3 games I am picking this week
involve teams with new coaches. I like one
coaching change and I hate the other one.
Let's start with the Rams. I can't believe I
actually like them to cover this week let alone
ever but I have a feeling about them this
week. I really think the problem lied more
with the head coach then with some of the
players particularly on offense. Bulger should
have his confidence back now that he has
been named starter for the rest of the year
and he still has talented playmakers on his
side in Jackson and Holt. Now they do have to
go against a red-hot Redskins team this week,
but I think this screams for a let down by them
and after some huge wins over Dallas and
Philly, they take the foot off the pedal against
the Rams this week and the Rams play hard
and cover the spread.
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Now on the other hand I think the firing of
Lane Kiffin will have the opposite effect on the
Raiders. I think it has been a huge
distraction for them and from what I saw they
seemed to play hard for him and he was
genuinely liked by the players. He is replaced
by offensive line coach who has no head
coaching experience in the NFL but put up an
impressive 11-35 record in 4 years as the
head coach of the University of Idaho. All that
aside, the Saints are clearly the better team
and are coming off a very disappointing loss
where they outplayed the Vikings in all areas
of the game but still came up short. I think
Martin Gramatica getting hurt was a blessing
in disguise so maybe now they have a kicker
who can actually put the ball through the
uprights when it matters. The Saints may also
have Shockey and Colston back this week
which will help a team that already leads the
league in passing yards per game at 334.6.
Take the Saints and lay the points at home.
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You hate to say in week 6 that a team has a
must-win game but I think you could make an
argument that the Packers have to win this
week in Seattle. They have lost 3 in a row and
are in danger of falling to 2-4 with Indy
coming to town next week. Both teams have
dinged up quarterbacks but Rodgers showed
his arm is still healthy enough to throw a 50-
yard strike to Donald Driver last week.
Hasselbeck, on the other hand, was hobbled
last week in NY and never really seemed to
find a rhythm at all. Seattle is struggling to
put receivers on the field let alone ones that
are any good. I see the Packers righting the
ship this week and coming out of Seattle with
a win. Take the Pack and the points.
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Sean
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
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Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-3)
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New York Giants (-9) at Cleveland Browns
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Jaguars +3.5
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Texans -3
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Browns +9
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2008 Record: 8-7 (53.3%)
See all 2008 Sean picks
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Denver was a nice story early this season, but
that story will be put on hold in week 6.
Denver's defense ranks 29th in the NFL. They
will get a heavy dose of the Jags running
attack this week. The Jags are still a team that
will knock you in the mouth. Denver is missing
two offensive weapons this week in Selvin
Young & Tony Scheffler. Cutler who has played
well this season will stumble this week against
Jack Del Rio's boys. Denver will certainly use
the Pittsburgh game as a blueprint to beat the
Jags. To beat them, they are going to have to
spread them out, and beat them in the air.
Denver is one of those teams that can
definitely do this, but their defense is just not
good enough yet. Once we get into the end of
November/December in the elements, you will
see a different improved unit. This is a pretty
much must-win for the Jags, and I think they
will go on the road and beat the Broncos
outright.
Jaguars 27 Broncos 23
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Miami has looked impressive this year. They
destroyed the AFC Champion New England
Patriots, and then just held one of the most
high-powered offenses in the league to a
measily 10 pts. Are you drinking that Dolphin
Kool-Aid? I definitely am not. This has big let
down game written all over it. Let me just start
by saying that of all the winless teams the
Houston Texans are definitely the cream of
the crop. Their first 4 losses were against
Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville &
Indianapolis. All pretty strong teams. Matt
Schaub looked great in Week 4 against the
Jaguars and I expect a big game out of him
this week as well. Houston destroyed
Indianapolis last week at home, only to blow it
late. They won't blow this game, in fact, they
will win by more than 10 pts.
Houston 30 Miami 17
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I have been burned by picking against the
Giants twice this year. All logic says that the
Giants will beat the Browns by 30 pts.
Cleveland is just not that good. The one
intangible here is that this game is being
played on Monday night. Strange things
happen on Monday Night Football. The Giants
are the best team in the NFL, they look great
on both sides of the ball, but let's be honest
here. Who have they played? They played a
defunct Washington team in week 1.
Washington definitely had that pre-season
hangover IMO. They destroyed the Rams, but
who can't? They struggled at home against the
Bengals, and then they destroyed an
absolutely terrible looking Seattle team. IMO,
this is a must-win for the Giants. Kind of crazy
saying that about an undefeated team, but
their upcoming schedule week 8 and on is
pretty brutal featuring 5 more games in
division, and games against Pittsburgh,
Baltimore, Arizona, Carolina & Minnesota. Is
there a better time to unveil Brady Quinn than
on a home Monday Nighter? I see a Giants
17-3 lead at halftime and then Brady starting
the 2nd half, rallying his troops to a tie game,
only to lose it in the end.
NY Giants 23 Cleveland 17
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