Scoring: This mock draft is based on re-draft leagues (2014 season only). Passing touchdowns are worth four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points. In addition, one point is earned per
25 passing yards, 10 rushing yards and 10 receiving yards.
Like with Dan's previous pick (Wright), there are a few receivers still available that I'd prefer over Colston.
Even though Drew Brees threw for 5,000-plus yards in his third consecutive season, Colston finished with only 75 receptions, a four-year low, for 943 yards, a five-year low, and only five touchdowns, which ties a career low. In addition, he averaged only 62.9 yards per game, which is the lowest of his career.
Colston had more weekly variability in his numbers than previous seasons as well. In the regular season, he had two fantasy points or less in more than one-quarter of his games. His two postseason games illustrated that as well: 2/16/0 vs. PHI and 11/144/1 vs. SEA.
5.02 - Kevin Hanson, Team 1: Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants
There was little reason for Cruz to salsa last season.
While a knee injury cut Cruz's season short (by two games), he posted three-year lows across the board: 73 catches, 998 yards, four TDs. While those numbers may not seem horrible (and "horrible" is not the word I'd use to describe them), Cruz scored three of his four touchdowns in Week 1. He scored all four of his touchdowns in the first four games and had three 100-yard performances during that span. After that, however, he scored double-digit fantasy points only once and had five or less points in six of 10 games.
With the offensive line struggling, Eli was far from "elite" and had his worst statistical season of his career with only 18 touchdowns, a low since his rookie season, and 27 interceptions, a league and career worst. If the Giants get better offensive line and quarterback play in 2014, Cruz should have a bounce-back season.
A physical freak at the position, Davis is a mismatch for any linebacker or defensive back. While he still seems to be under-utilized by the 49ers, Davis finished second at the position last year in terms of fantasy production.
Although he had only three games with more than four catches, he caught 13 touchdowns, which ties his career high, and scored in 11 of the 15 games he played. Therefore, he managed to finish with double-digit fantasy points in more than half of his games.
5.04 - Brendan Donahue, Team 1: Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans
Tate has shown the ability to be a productive featured back when he got the opportunity due to Arian Foster injury. Assuming he signs elsewhere in free agency, it's likely that Tate will get the opportunity to be the lead dog. Depending on his landing spot, Tate could move up a couple of rounds from here in future drafts.
Sidelined for virtually all of the regular season due to his hip, Harvin is a dangerous playmaker with the ball in his hands. Even in the Seahawks' conservative run-first offense, they will make sure to get the ball into Harvin's hands (including rush attempts) as much as possible next year and he has the potential to be a steal in the fifth round.
5.06 - Kevin Hanson, Team 2: Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons
The 2013 season was a year to forget for White and the Falcons in general. While injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, key injuries limited the high-powered Falcons' offense. Not only did Julio Jones (foot) miss the majority of the season, but White tried to play through a high-ankle sprain to start the season and he was largely ineffective.
From Week 13 to 17, White finally looked more like the receiver we know. During that five-game span to close the year, he racked up 43 catches for 502 yards and two touchdowns. That is a full-season pace of 138 receptions for 1,606 yards and six touchdowns.
While I don't expect those numbers in 2014, I do expect a bounce-back season in 2013 with at least 80 catches, 1,100 yards and six touchdowns but upside for more.
One season after rushing for 1,263 yards, seventh-most last year, and 12 touchdowns, Ridley fumbled his way to a reduced role within the Patriots backfield rotation in 2013. Even though LeGarrette Blount, who has eight TDs in his past three games, is scheduled to become a free agent, it's hard to have a ton of confidence in predicting Ridley's workload next season.
Provided he doesn't, um, drop the ball, however, he at least has the talent as a runner to put up numbers like he had in 2012. Whether he gets that opportunity remains to be seen, but he's worth the gamble this late in the mock.
Finishing 10th in the league in targets (151), Edelman's full-year numbers were 105 receptions, which was fourth-most in the NFL, for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns.
In Edelman's final eight games counting both playoff games, he had a minimum of six receptions and 64 yards in every game. During that span, he racked up a stat line of 69/729/5. Purely to illustrate how productive he's been over the past half-season, maintaining that pace for a full 16-game season would equate to a stat line of 138/1,458/10!
Going into the offseason, Edelman is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent, but I would expect the Patriots to make Edelman one of their priorities to re-sign after his breakout season. His fantasy value would be maximized if he returns to the Patriots.
5.09 - Sean Beazley, Team 3: Rashad Jennings, RB, Oakland Raiders
It's unclear who will get the majority of work in the Raiders backfield in 2014. Not only is the oft-injured Darren McFadden about to hit free agency, so is Jennings.
When given the opportunity last year, however, Jennings produced in a big way. In an eight-game stretch (that included a game he missed) from Weeks 9 to 16, Jennings had 123 carries for 584 yards (4.75 YPC) and six touchdowns with 22 catches for 187 yards.
If the Raiders re-sign Jennings (and let Run DMC walk, or limp, away), Jennings has a lot of upside at this spot. Until we know where he ends up in 2014, though, it's too early to tell.
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With Rashard Mendenhall due to become a free agent, there is no guarantee that Ellington will become the team's featured back, but he will be a prominent part of the team's offense either way.
In his rookie season, Ellington carried the ball 118 times for 652 yards (5.53 YPC) and three touchdowns and added 39 receptions for 371 yards and a touchdown.
There are several running backs that I'd prefer over Sproles (RB43 in my rankings) including teammate Pierre Thomas (my RB34). Not only is Sproles coming off a disappointing season (824 YFS, four TDs), but Sproles will turn 31 years old in June.
After throwing for 4,051 yards as a rookie in 2011, Newton has seen year-over-year declines in passing yardage in each of the past two seasons. That said, he threw a career-high 24 touchdowns in 2013 and has been a top-four scorer in fantasy points among quarterbacks in each of the past two seasons.
Of course, a huge portion of Newton's fantasy success comes from his ability as a runner. No quarterback had more rush attempts (111), yards (585) or touchdowns (six) than Newton last year.
Imagine if the Panthers front office gives Newton better/additional weapons in free agency and/or the draft ... either way, he should be a lock to be a top-five option at the position in 2014.
