2011 NFL PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS
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Between now and the start of the 2011 NFL season on Thursday night, we will release our predictions for all
divisions and make our Super Bowl prediction.
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2011 AFC EAST PREDICTION
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In a quarterback-driven league, it's no shocker that teams with great
quarterbacks do well and the Patriots have certainly done well over the
past decade.
The Patriots have had a winning season every year since 2001 and
have won double-digit games every year during that span with the
exception of 2002 (9-7). Although Patriots quarterback Tom Brady won
his first ten playoff games, which includes three Super Bowl victories,
the Patriots and Brady have lost their past three post-season games
and haven't won in the playoffs since their 18-0 start to the 2007
season.
On the other hand, the Jets have made the playoffs in each of the past
two seasons under coach Rex Ryan and quarterback Mark Sanchez
as Wildcard teams. Despite having to win on the road, they have
reached the AFC Championship Game -- but fell short of their Super
Bowl aspirations -- both seasons.
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Continuing his annual tradition, Ryan has made another Super Bowl prediction for the Jets. My guess is that he
might do the same next year regardless of whether the team wins the Super Bowl this year.
So, who will win the AFC East in 2011?
Here are my 2011 NFL predictions for the AFC East (records in parenthesis):
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1. New England Patriots (11-5): As mentioned above, it's a quarterback-driven league and Brady is
heads-and-shoulders above the rest of the starting quarterbacks in this division: Mark Sanchez (Jets), Chad Henne
(Dolphins) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills). Last season, Brady was nearly flawless from Week 7 on. From Week 7 to
17, Brady completed 65 percent of his 326 pass attempts for 2,697 yards while throwing 26 touchdowns and no
interceptions. Heading into 2011, Wes Welker, who had three consecutive seasons with 110-plus receptions from
2007-2009, is another season removed from his torn ACL as the team adds Chad Ochocinco on the outside.
The Patriots have a much easier start and end to their schedule than the eight-game stretch in the middle. From
October 9th to December 4th, they face only one team that did not win double-digit games in 2010: Dallas. That
said, the Cowboys had much more talent than their record indicated. Whether they finish first or second in the
division will likely depend on how they weather the middle part of their season.
- Related: Patriots Schedule - Patriots Tickets - Patriots Team Win Poll/Thread
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2. New York Jets (10-6): Is this the year that the Jets take that next step and get to the Super Bowl? The Jets have
one of the league's best defenses and arguably the league's best defensive player in shutdown corner Darrelle
Revis. Last year, the Jets allowed the third-fewest yards (291.5 per game) and sixth-fewest points (19.0 per game)
in the NFL. In addition, they can run the ball although last year seemed disappointing in that regard. While they
finished fourth in the NFL in rushing offense (148.4 yards per game), that was a year-over-year decline from 2009
when they led the league with 172.3 yards per game. For the team to take the next step, they will need more out of
Mark Sanchez and their passing game as their defense and running offense are the team's strengths.
- Related: Jets Schedule - Jets Tickets - Jets Team Win Poll/Thread
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3. Miami Dolphins (6-10): With Henne under center, the Dolphins will likely continue to rely on their ground game
more than their passing attack. More than a seal of approval for Reggie Bush, however, the coaching staff's naming
of Bush as their starter is more of a seal of disapproval of rookie Daniel Thomas, in my opinion. The Dolphins have
a strong set of cornerbacks in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, but they're not as good as the tandem of Revis and
Antonio Cromartie regardless of what they claim. Either way, the Dolphins have one of the better defenses in the
league. A key for the Dolphins will be to limit turnovers, especially down the stretch. Henne has thrown almost half
(15) of his 33 career interceptions in the fourth quarter.
- Related: Dolphins Schedule - Dolphins Tickets - Dolphins Team Win Poll/Thread
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4. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Despite finishing in last place in 2010, the Bills played most teams tough during Weeks 7 to
15. Although they were 4-5 during that span, four of their five losses were by three points and three of those were in
overtime. With a little bit of luck, their record could have been significantly better than 4-12 in 2010. By drafting
Marcel Dareus with the third-overall pick and locking up Kyle Williams with a long-term extension, defensive tackle
is arguably the team's strength. That said, the team ranked dead last in rush defense (169.6 yards allowed per
game) in 2010. While their offensive line is certainly not their strength, running back C.J. Spiller, their first-round
pick (ninth overall) last year, has not looked anywhere near as impressive as his speed and big-play ability would
suggest.
- Related: Bills Schedule - Bills Tickets - Bills Team Win Poll/Thread
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Bold prediction for the AFC East: Wes Welker, who had only 86 receptions in 2010, will lead the NFL in receptions
and record his fourth season of 110-plus receptions in the past five years. Since Welker became a Patriot (2007), a
receiver has reached 110 receptions seven times. Welker has three of them; four other players have one each.
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More divisions to come soon ...
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