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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS). While the three of us combined for a record of 80-70-3 (53.3%)
ATS in 2009, we were even better in 2008 with a combined record of 88-62-3 (58.7%) ATS.
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Our free Fantasy Football Contest (based on Monday Night Football matchups) is open: ENTER HERE. Newcomers welcome!
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Steelers (-3) at Bucs
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Browns at Ravens (-11)
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Lions at Vikings (-11.5)
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Steelers -3
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Ravens -11
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Lions +11.5
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The Battle of the Unbeatens? Through two
weeks, these two teams make up one-quarter
of all unbeaten teams. Pittsburgh beat two
quality opponents (Atlanta and Tennessee)
while the Bucs beat two teams with horrible
quarterback play (Cleveland and Carolina).
Granted, the Steelers have issues at
quarterback as they're down to their fourth
option with Charlie Batch. But the Steelers
can run the ball (and Tampa ranked 32nd of
32 teams in rushing defense last year). In
addition, the Steelers can stop the run -- they
held Atlanta's Michael Turner in Week 1 and
Tennessee's Chris Johnson in Week 2 to less
than 100 yards. That's combined. The duo
carried it a total of 35 times for only 76 yards.
It could be a very long day for Cadillac
Williams, who ranks second in rushing
attempts (49) but only has a 2.6 yards-per-
carry average. And while second-year
quarterback Josh Freeman is developing, he
had only two completions to wide receivers --
technically, wide receiver since both catches
were by rookie Mike Williams -- last week.
Give three points? No problema.
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Last week, Joe Flacco had arguably the
worst game of his career as he had his first
(and hopefully last) four-interception game.
Against the Browns, however, Flacco has
played well and the Ravens have won all
four of their matchups with him under
center. In fact, only one of those four
victories was "narrow" enough to not cover
an 11-point spread. On Nov. 2, 2008, the
Ravens won by only ten points, 37-27, on
the road in Cleveland. The combined score
of those four victories was 115-40. The
Ravens scored less than 28 points in only
one of those four games while the Browns
scored more than ten points in only one of
those games. Baltimore is the only team
not to give up a touchdown this season
(even if they have allowed eight field goals)
so the Browns should find it difficult to
move the ball. Although Ray Rice had 117
yards from scrimmage against the Bengals,
I have a feeling he's poised for a breakout
game against the Browns. (Since I'm
facing him in my most important fantasy
league, hopefully he does just enough to
help the Ravens win by 12.)
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Despite being 0-2, the Lions have looked
better than I expected, especially after
losing their starting quarterback at the end
of the first half of their first game.
Although it'll be another week of Shaun Hill,
the Lions nearly won both of their games
(and you could argue that they really won
the Chicago game after the Calvin Johnson
non-touchdown). And the Lions were
getting beaten pretty badly by the Eagles
last week, but they nearly overcame a
17-point deficit in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Vikings quarterback Brett Favre
has looked horrible, throwing for less than
200 yards per game, only one touchdown
and four interceptions. While he should
bounce back this week, my gut instinct is to
have a lack of confidence in Favre's ability
to do that at this point. I expect the
Vikings to get the win provided they pound
the ball with Adrian Peterson, but I wouldn't
be surprised if the Lions keep it close.
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Dan
2009 Record: 54.0% (27-23-1)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Bills at Patriots (-14.5)
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Redskins (-4.5) at Rams
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Eagles (-3) at Jaguars
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Patriots -14.5
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Redskins -4.5
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Eagles -3
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Conventional wisdom states woe be to the
team facing the Patriots after a loss, and
sadly the Bills find themselves in Foxboro this
weekend. The Patriots come off a big loss to
the rival Jets, and will look to right their ship,
and work out the kinks offensively. The Bills
come in after two tough losses, and will switch
to Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB after only amassing
17 points total this year. History certainly
backs up the Patriots here, as they have won
13 straight games vs Buffalo. Buffalo also has
gone 4-9 against the spread in their last 13
vs the AFC East, and also are 0-2 vs the
number this year. Look for a huge day by
Tom Brady, and for the Patriots to win big at
home.
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The Rams have hung tough in their first two
games of the season, and certainly have
some great building blocks in Sam Bradford
and Steven Jackson, but still are in the
middle of growing up. The Redskins come
to town after a tough loss to the Houston
Texans, but according to cornerback
DeAngelo Hall they actually won that game.
The Redskins are starting to become a
balanced team, and Donovan McNabb is
certainly showing that he has a lot left in
the tank. The Rams have lost 27 of their
last 28 games straight up, and are also
9-21 against the spread in their last 30
games at home. Too much McNabb, Portis,
and Santana Moss for the Rams to handle.
Lay the points and take the road favorite
here.
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The Eagles come in after escaping the
pesky Lions to visit sunny Florida for a non-
conference matchup against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville perhaps would like forget that
last weekend happened after giving away
the ball at will to San Diego. The Eagles
have announced that they will start Mike
Vick who has been a spark plug for them
this year, and will look to continue his road
to redemption on the field. The Jaguars
have had trouble stopping any opposing
team so far, as they have given up 55
points so far. Jacksonville is 4-13 against
the number at home, and there might not
be too many people there to see it. I never
like the East Coast teams coming back
from the West Coast and having to dial it
up after a tough loss. Look for Vick and
DeSean Jackson to continue their offensive
barrage. Give the points away again for
another road favorite.
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Sean
2009 Record: 53.1% (26-23-2)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Eagles (-3) at Jaguars
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Cowboys at Texans (-2.5)
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Falcons at Saints (-3)
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Jaguars +3
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Cowboys +2.5
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Saints -3
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Not so fast Michael Vick and the Eagles. Too
much media attention, and too much
controversy. Guess what, Philly fans, it is
going to get even worse after a disappointing
loss in Jacksonville on Sunday. I think MJD
finally has a breakout game with a three TD
performance on Sunday, and the Jaguars win
27-21 at home. Will it be Kevin Kolb's team
the following week? We will be force fed this
another seven days on sports talk radio,
unfortunately.
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Now this is a must-win for the Cowboys, and
the Texans losing Duane Brown definitely
hurts their O-Line. I expect Dallas to get
pressure on Matt Schaub, and Tony Romo
should be able to get the passing game
going against a Texans' defense that has
not been that good this season. If the
Cowboys lose this game, it is time for Jerry
to make a move and get rid of Wade
Phillips once and for all. I think the
Cowboys squeak one out late here. 24-23
Cowboys.
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Is Reggie Bush really this valuable? Are
these even on a neutral field if you go by
the old three points for home field
advantage. Atlanta is a decent team, a
team who can contend for the playoffs, but
let's not go overboard here. They have
injury concerns at RB as well. Bush or no
Bush, the Saints should be favored at
home by 6 points over pretty much anyone
in the NFC. I think this is the week their
offense really gets on track and Brees goes
nuts throwing for 350 and five TDs. Saints
38-20
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