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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS). While the three of us combined for a record of 80-70-3 (53.3%)
ATS in 2009, we were even better in 2008 with a combined record of 88-62-3 (58.7%) ATS.
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Dolphins (-3) at Bills
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49ers (-3) at Seahawks
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Browns at Bucs (-3)
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Dolphins -3
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49ers -3
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Browns +3
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The Bills have a solid pass defense and an
electrifying rookie running back. What else?
They have a solid pass defense and an
electrifying rookie running back. In other
words, not much. The Bills ranked 30th in the
NFL last year in rushing yards allowed. When
it comes to offense, their offensive line,
quarterback play and receiving corps all seem
to be equally bad. The tandem of Ronnie
Brown and Ricky Williams should be able to
run all over the Bills, who lost Kawika Mitchell
for the season today. And if the Dolphins
establish an early lead, they may never look
back.
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There might be no such thing as a "sure
thing." But if I had to bank on one team
winning its division, it would be the 49ers
winning the NFC Worst. Not only will the
Niners run away with the division, but the
Seahawks aren't even the second-best
team. Plus, they have released (arguably)
the team's best receiver in T.J.
Houshmandzadeh and rookie left tackle
Russell Okung will miss Week 1. Funny
that the guy who could replace him -- Tyler
Polumbus -- was called "Troy" by coach
Pete Carroll. In fairness to Carroll, he's
new on the roster as Carroll indicates: "Troy
hasn't been with us but a week."
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Browns running back Jerome Harrison
rushed for 561 yards in the final three
games of 2009. The Bucs allowed a
league-high 158.2 yards per game in
2009. Get it? I think the Browns will be an
improved team, whose record won't reflect
those improvements due to the strength of
the division. The Bucs? Well, you can't get
much worse than 3-13 so there's little room
for deterioration. The Bucs got a bargain
with receiver Mike Williams, but their aerial
assualt lacks a full arsenal of fire power.
While the Browns won't air it out, the Bucs
are without cornerback Aqib Talib, who is
suspended for Week 1.
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Dan
2009 Record: 54.0% (27-23-1)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Dolphins (-3) at Bills
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49ers (-3) at Seahawks
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Packers (-3) at Eagles
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Dolphins -3
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49ers -3
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Packers -3
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Back again for yet another exciting season of
football, and also another set of quality picks.
We start this year off with an AFC East
matchup. The Dolphins have retooled their
passing game, and bring stud receiver
Brandon Marshall into the fold. The Bills start
the year fresh with a new coach, and potential
game breaker in the backfield in CJ Spiller. In
this game, I look for Miami to pound the ball
against last year's 30th-ranked defense
against the rush with Ronnie Brown and Ricky
Williams. The Bills still have a lot more
questions than answers as their quarterback
position and offensive line are less than
spectacular. Miami boasts a 7-1 record in their
last 8 against the spread vs the AFC East, and
Buffalo is 3-10 against the mark at home in
their last 13. Look for a strong day by both
Williams and Brown, as Miami will pound
Buffalo into submission.
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The 49ers will look to build upon their
strong foundation, and make the final push
for the playoffs, whereas the Seahawks are
in rebuilding mode, bringing in highly
successful college coach Pete Caroll.
Caroll's NFL track record has been subpar,
in stints with both the Jets and the Patriots,
and has the daunting task of bringing
Seattle back to prominence. The 49ers will
look to attack Seattle through the air, and
will take advantage of the 30th-ranked
passing defense. Look for Vernon Davis,
Michael Crabtree, and Frank Gore to have
huge days, as the 49ers are 12-5-4 in their
last 21 vs the spread. On the flip side, the
numbers do not favor Seattle as they are
3-8 vs the number in their last 11. Lay the
points again in this divisional matchup.
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Three games, and three favorites, but that
is just the way the first few weeks of the
games seem to go. The Packers come in
off a hot pre-season, where their offense
was firing on all cylinders. The Eagles have
retooled by jettisoning long time QB
Donovan McNabb, and will go with Kevin
Kolb calling the signals. The Eagles love to
throw the ball, but will have a stern test by
facing last year's fifth-ranked passing
defense in Green Bay. Green Bay has
posted an impressive record of 7-1-1 in
their last nine against the spread. The
Packers will look to throw the ball early and
often, and look for Aaron Rodgers to have
a huge day overall. Three favorites to start
the year, good luck to all.
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Sean
2009 Record: 53.1% (26-23-2)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Broncos at Jaguars (-3)
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49ers (-3) at Seahawks
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Lions at Bears (-6.5)
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Jaguars -3
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49ers -3
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Lions +6.5
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Denver is basically a mess. Knowshon Moreno
is dinged up, although he should still play.
There QB situation isn't great, no Brandon
Marshall this year, and they lost their best
defensive player for the year earlier this
off-season. West coast teams heading to the
east coast generally have a hard time
anyways. The Jags are better than a lot of
people think they are. Expect to see a
healthy helping of MJD in this one and the
Jags roll 24-13.
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You may think this is a sucker bet, but it
isn't. Seattle is going to be picking in the
top 5 next year and that is just how I see
it. The 49ers have a lot of talent on both
sides of the ball. I expect Alex Smith to
take the next step this year and become a
solid NFL starter. If this were week 8 in
Seattle, this line would be -7 easy. Take
the 49ers at a discount here. 49ers win
easy as their defense shuts down Seattle
23-9.
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Just like the 49ers/Seahawks game, this is
another spread that jumps out at me. If
this were week 8, I'd expect this game to
be +3.5 or so, as I think the Lions are
going to be a surprise team this year.
Detroit is loaded on offense with young
talent, and veteran Nate Burleson will finally
give Matthew Stafford a legit #2 target to
throw to. Coach Jim Schwartz loves rookie
Jahvid Best and so do I. The Bears still
lack a true No. 1 WR and their running
attack was mediocre last year. I actually
think the Lions will have a better record this
year. Lions in the upset 27-24.
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