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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final results: Through Week 17, we have a combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
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See also:
- Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings: QB - RB - WR - TE
- NFL Schedule - Tickets - CFB Schedule - Tickets
- 2012 Mock Draft Databases: NFL - NBA
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DAILY WEEK 3 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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BENGALS
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3.0
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49ers
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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Patriots
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7.5
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BILLS
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NE -7.5
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NE -7.5
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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SAINTS
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4.0
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Texans
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NO -4
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NO -4
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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EAGLES
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9.0
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Giants
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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BROWNS
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2.0
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Dolphins
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MIA +2
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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TITANS
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7.0
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Broncos
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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Lions
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3.5
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VIKINGS
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Sun, Sep 25 at 1:05 p.m.
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PANTHERS
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3.5
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Jaguars
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CAR -3.5
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:10 p.m.
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CHARGERS
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14.5
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Chiefs
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:10 p.m.
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Jets
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3.0
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RAIDERS
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:10 p.m.
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Ravens
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4.0
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RAMS
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BAL -4
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BAL -4
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:20 p.m.
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BUCCANEERS
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1.5
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Falcons
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:20 p.m.
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Cardinals
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3.5
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SEAHAWKS
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SEA -3.5
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Sun, Sep 25 at 4:20 p.m.
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Packers
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3.5
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BEARS
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Sun, Sep 25 at 8:30 p.m.
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Steelers
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10.5
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COLTS
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Mon, Sep 26 at 8:20 p.m.
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COWBOYS
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NL
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Redskins
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
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Ravens (-4) at Rams
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Jaguars at Panthers (-3.5)
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Dolphins at Browns (-2)
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Ravens -4
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Panthers -3.5
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Dolphins +2
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If you watched only one of the two Ravens
games this season, your perception of the
team would differ greatly depending on which
game you watched. Which perception is
accurate? It's probably somewhere in
between. The Ravens have one of the
league's most versatile running backs in Ray
Rice and the Rams have allowed a
league-high 177.5 yards per game. While
they faced Michael Vick, who nearly rushed for
100 yards, and Joe Flacco is no Vick, they
have still allowed 270 rushing yards to running
backs (second-most in the NFL). On the other
hand, the Rams are still dealing with several
injuries to key players, including their top two
running backs, Steven Jackson and Cadillac
Williams, who are both questionable for
Sunday. While the Ravens have some
injuries in their secondary, they also have one
of the league's best front sevens, especially
with the way Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs
are playing. I'm not a huge fan of taking
road favorites, but I expect the Ravens to
bounce back big this week.
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This season, there are two quarterbacks
that have thrown for 400 yards in
back-to-back games: New England's Tom
Brady and Carolina's Cam Newton, who was
the top overall pick in this year's draft.
More surprising than the actual numbers is
that Newton, as a rookie, has looked
composed and under control and these
weren't two gaudy performances in garbage
time. On the other hand, the Jaguars have
a secondary susceptible to giving up the big
play. Only the Texans (18) allowed more
40-yard pass plays than the Jaguars (13)
last year. As surprising as Newton's fast
start has been, the team's (running back's)
inability to run the ball effectively has been
as much of a surprise. Newton leads the
team in rushing as DeAngelo Williams and
Jonathan Stewart have only 43 and 31
rushing yards, respectively. While The
Daily Show went over 100 receiving yards
last week, they are averaging only 2.47
yards per carry (on their 30 rushing
attempts). Perhaps it's more of a hunch
since the Jags have been effective stopping
the run so far this year, but I expect the
Panthers to get their ground game going
this week.
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For whatever reason, the Miami Dolphins
have struggled in games played at home.
In their past 12 home games dating back
to Week 16 of the 2009 season, the
Dolphins have won only one game. Lucky
for them, they will take their talents to
Cleveland this week. The experiment of
using Reggie Bush as a featured back is
over. Rookie Daniel Thomas rushed more
than 100 yards in his first-ever NFL game
last week and I expect the Dolphins to
maintain better offensive balance with
Thomas (and some Bush) on the ground.
That's no disrespect to Bush, who can help
an offense in plenty of other ways aside
from running it between the tackles. While
the 'Fins allowed Brady to throw for over
500 yards against them, the stats don't
paint a true picture of their defense.
Currently, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the
league in total defense (483.5 yards
allowed per game), but they have faced two
elite offenses (New England and Houston).
Look for Miami to regain some of the form
that propelled them into the top ten of
defensive rankings in 2010 as safety
Jeremiah Bell says it correctly, this game is
"kind of like a must win." Against the
spread, the Dolphins are in their last 16
games as underdogs. And they are even
better (6-0-2 ATS) as road underdogs in
games with three-point spreads or less.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
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Patriots (-7.5) at Bills
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Texans at Saints (-4)
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Cardinals (-3.5) at Seahawks
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Patriots -7.5
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Saints -4
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Seahawks +3.5
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Ok, so I am the king of pushes so far, but I
won't have a chance to do that in this game
since the line will include a half a point. The
Bills are one of the most surprising teams so
far this year, and they have started with a nice
2-0 record, quite the first time in a long time.
The Patriots have been firing on all cylinders
on offense, and it seems that Tom Brady is
on a pace to throw for 7000 yards this year.
When it comes to history, the Patriots just
dominate the Bills. New England has not lost
to Buffalo in 15 games, are 7-0 against the
spread in the last 7 years in Buffalo, and
Buffalo is 6-15-1 in their last 22 home games
against the number. I love the short number
of 7.5 for New England, but I do expect
Buffalo to be in this game. As a bonus take
the over, but too much Brady, Gronkowski,
and Branch, lay the points for the Pats.
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The Texans have gotten off to a great 2-0
start, and have the look of the team most
expected to make the playoffs last year.
The Saints have looked competitive as well,
by playing the Packers to the wire, and
blowing out the Bears last week. The
Texans have fattened up against a very
toothless Colts team and a weak Miami
team so far. Anyway you slice it the Texans
still have not solved their awful pass
defense, and I love Drew Brees in fantasy
to have the biggest game by a QB this
week, and I would start
Graham,Meachem,Moore, and Henderson.
The Saints have been money in September
by posting an impressive 7-3 mark against
the spread during the opening month. I
love Brees and company at home in the
dome against one of the worst pass
defense teams in recent memory. Lay the
short 4 for the boys at home in the dome.
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The Seahawks have started off the year in
rough fashion on the road this year by
dropping games against Pittsburgh and the
49ers. The Cardinals lost a squeaker to
Washington last week, and just barely
outlasted Carolina to start the year. That
being said, it is the home opener for
Seattle, and they are certainly the best
team at home in the NFL as they boast an
extra 6.5 points per game at Qwest field. I
know Seattle is in the running for the worst
team in the league award this year, but I
love the Seahawks getting 3.5 points at
home against that porous Cardinals
defense. Seattle is 2-1 in their last 3
games against the Cardinals, and also
Arizona has posted a 3-9 mark in their last
12 against the spread on the road. I pick
the Cards to win, but I love the Seahawks
getting points at home versus a marginal
opponent.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
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Texans at Saints (-4)
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Ravens (-4) at Rams
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Patriots (-7.5) at Bills
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Saints -4
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Ravens -4
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Patriots -7.5
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The typical way most people think lines work
in the NFL is you get 3 points for home field
advantage. Do you think this line should be
-1 on a neutral field? I certainly do not. There
are a couple of trends I like here. New
Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games
versus a team with a winning record, and
Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as
an underdog. Houston is not as good as
people think they are. They beat a mediocre
Indy team with the leagues worst starting QB
Kerry Collins. The Miami win on the road was
nice, but Miami I still expect to finish in the
basement. New Orleans on the other hand
had some problems versus Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers in Week 1, but who hasn't?
Last week they dominated a Bears team who
previously just beat an Atlanta team who
many thought was the best team in the NFC.
This is a big test for Houston, and I think they
are not ready to step up and play with the big
boys especially on the road. I think New
Orleans runs the ball all over them like Daniel
Thomas did last week, and Brees has a big
game as well. Saints win easily 34-17
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I really like the Ravens in this spot.
Baltimore just came off a horrendous
beating to the Tennessee Titans who
looked like one of the worst teams in the
league after a week 1 loss at Jacksonville.
Baltimore is obviously better then what they
showed last week. St. Louis on the other
hand has struggled against two good teams
NY Giants & Philly. St. Louis was a lot of
peoples pick for 1st in the NFC West, but I
think they are still too banged up to
seriously contend with a Super Bowl caliber
team here. One stat that pops out in this
matchup is that the Ravens are 10-1 ATS in
their last 11 games following a game where
they rushed for fewer then 90 yards. The
Ravens at time get away from their bread &
butter and that is running the ball with Ray
Rice. I expect Rice to get back on track
against this defense which ranks last in the
NFL in rushing yards against. I think
Baltimore's defense comes up big as well
and the Ravens win this here 27-13.
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There has been no bigger surprise in the
NFL this year then the Buffalo Bills starting
2-0. Reality will set back in this week when
they face the Patriots. Buffalo has played
New England tough in recent matchups, but
I think the Patriots make a statement here
this week that they are the tops in the AFC,
not the Jets. Tom Brady is on set to destroy
Dan Marino's all time passing record for
yards in a season. In fact this year in the
NFL there has been more passing yards in
the first two weeks then ever before.
Buffalo did show a lot of heart in their
comeback last week versus Oakland, but
this isn't Oakland in week 3. New England's
defense made big play after big play
against Phillip Rivers and the Chargers
offense last week, and I expect them to
have a big game here too. New England
has covered their last 7 games in Buffalo,
and I see no reason why 8 won't happen
Sunday. New England wins easily and Brady
has another huge day 38-20
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