Kevin Hanson's 2019 NFL Mock Draft- Updated: Friday, March 8th
|The Huddle Report tracks NFL Mock Draft Accuracy and EDSFootball's Kevin Hanson ranks T-1st among experts tracked over the past five years. In addition, his 2015 NFL mock was the most accurate among the 113 tracked that year.|
Predicting how a draft will play out minutes before it begins is virtually impossible so naturally it's even more difficult almost two months out.
Over the next seven weeks, the one certainty is that this 2019 NFL mock draft will change -- perhaps considerably -- with most Pro Days and the start of NFL Free Agency still ahead of us.
As we move closer to the actual draft, we will add rounds to eventually mock all seven rounds.
MORE: Check out our way-too-early 2019 Fantasy Football Mock Draft
For now, here's how the first round of the 2019 NFL draft could play out:
1. Arizona Cardinals (Draft History): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma Sooners
Genuine interest? Or more smoke screen? Perhaps the talent-deficient Cardinals are trying to manufacture (more of) a market for the top pick with the amount of (mis)information recently floated out there. But as a more natural fit in Kliff Klingsbury's offense than Josh Rosen, some are "thoroughly convinced" that the Cardinals will reset at the most important position in sports. It's a bold move one year after trading into the top 10 for Rosen, but if they truly feel that Murray gives them a much better chance to succeed, it makes sense.
2. San Francisco 49ers (Draft History): Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
Assuming that Murray-to-Arizona rumors materialize, this would be an ideal scenario for the pass rush-needy 49ers. Per PFF College, no edge defender had a higher grade in their history (since 2014) than Bosa did in 2017. About the fourth family member to earn a first-round draft pedigree, Bosa may not be the first pick in the draft, but he's my top-ranked prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft.
3. New York Jets (Draft History): Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky Wildcats
Speaking of PFF grades, Allen tied for the third-highest amongst edge rushers (over the 2014-2018 span) as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year recorded 17 sacks, 21.5 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles in 2018. Perhaps the Jets will have an opportunity to trade back for a QB-needy team looking to move up for Dwayne Haskins. If not, this pick should come down to Alabama's Quinnen Williams or Allen, who would fill a greater need for the Jets.
4. Oakland Raiders (Draft History): Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama Crimson Tide
After trading away Khalil Mack, the Raiders not only ranked dead last in sacks (13) in 2018, but they set a franchise low for sacks in a season. Even if they may prefer to draft an edge rusher like Bosa or Allen, Mike Mayock, Jon Gruden & Co. have to be thrilled about getting a talented player like Williams -- second on my big board -- with the fourth overall pick.
- MORE: 2019 NFL Draft Big Board: Top 100 Prospects
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Draft History): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan Wolverines
The fifth pick could be a trade-back sweet spot as teams may attempt to get in front of the Giants for Haskins, but the Bucs have a number of different options if they stay put. It's possible they take a cornerback like Greedy Williams, but I think that's a more likely scenario if they trade back. As expected, Gary tested extremely well at the NFL Scouting Combine, but no other top-10 prospect has as wide a range of potential outcomes -- high ceiling and low floor.
6. New York Giants (Draft History): Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State Buckeyes
Passing on a quarterback last year and given the potential for a stronger crop of quarterback prospects in 2020, Gettleman may be hesitant to pull the trigger on a signal-caller in 2019. That said, it's clear Eli Manning's play is holding the team and offense back. If Haskins is still available here, the Giants would be wise to address their biggest long-term need. If they don't, I could see the G-Men adding a pass-rusher as Olivier Vernon has been disappointing and only the Raiders (13) recorded fewer sacks than the Giants (30) in 2018.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (Draft History): Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama Crimson Tide
Heading into free agency next week, the Jags appear to be the leader in the clubhouse to acquire the services of free-agent quarterback Nick Foles. If free agency doesn't go according to expectations, the Jags could look to trade up in an effort to get in front of the Giants for Dwayne Haskins. Assuming we will have more clarity on their quarterback situation by this time next week, the Jags for now make a selection to better protect their 2019 starter (presumably Foles). Perhaps Williams moves inside to guard, where the Jags will need to replace A.J. Cann, or he could bookend Cam Robinson on the right side (like he did as a freshman at Alabama).
8. Detroit Lions (Draft History): Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State Bulldogs
Over the past four seasons, Ezekiel Ansah has 12-plus sacks twice and four or fewer in the other two seasons. Not only has Ansah missed multiple games in three consecutive seasons, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old edge rusher is about to become an unrestricted free agent. With double-digit sacks in back-to-back seasons, Sweat has extremely long arms (35 3/4") and ran a mind-blowing 4.41 forty at 260 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine last weekend. The Lions could go in a few different directions here, but adding a pass-rusher like Sweat would make sense if he's still available here.
9. Buffalo Bills (Draft History): D.K. Metcalf, WR, Mississippi Rebels
What a freakish athletic profile for Metcalf! Not only is he off the charts in terms of speed (4.33 at 228 pounds), leaping ability (40.5 inches) and strength (27 bench press reps), his change-of-direction drills were at the completely opposite end of the range.
Oh my gosh. This is true.— Jon Moore (@HelloJonMoore) March 4, 2019
Tom Brady: 7.2 cone, 4.38 shuttle
DK Metcalf: 7.38 cone, 4.5 shuttle
Even so, few quarterbacks, if any, have a stronger arm than Josh Allen so Metcalf would add a big-play element that the team has lacked.
10. Denver Broncos (Draft History): Drew Lock, QB, Missouri Tigers
At the Senior Bowl, John Elway reportedly told Drew Lock that he'd be a top-10 pick. Given the trade for Joe Flacco, Elway not feel the need to mortgage the farm to move up for Lock, but he should still be in play if there at No. 10. While there are some concerns with accuracy and decision making, Lock has prototypical size, elite arm strength and excellent mobility.
> Continue to 2019 NFL Mock Draft: Picks 11-20
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