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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, five of our "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
Final 2012 results: Combined record of 130-121-4 (51.8 percent) ATS.
2013 Cumulative Results: 48-53-4 (47.5 percent) ATS.
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 22-28-1 (44.0%)
2013 Record: 11-9-1 (55.0%)
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Jets at Bengals (-5)
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Giants at Eagles (-5)
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Steelers (-2.5) at Raiders
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Bengals -5
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Giants +5
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Raiders +2.5
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Building some momentum with their three-game winning streak, the Bengals are one of the most complete teams in the NFL. The Bengals rank 12th in total offense (18th in rushing and ninth in passing) as well as ninth in total defense (eighth in rushing and 13th in defense).
The duo of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have been terrific for the Bengals in back-to-back games. Dalton has 709 passing yards and six touchdowns and Green has 12 catches for 258 yards and two touchdowns during their past two games.
Typical of any rookie quarterback, New York's Geno Smith has been inconsistent and has alternated between terrific performances and poor performances. Based on his pattern, he's due for a dud.
The Bengals will force him into some mistakes as the Dalton-to-Green connection continues to roll on offense.
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With their first win of the season last week, can the Giants put together a winning streak before their bye next week?
The Eagles get Michael Vick back, but his hamstring may still not be 100 percent, which could limit many of his big rushing plays. Vick is averaging a league-best (for quarterbacks) 61.4 rushing yards and 9.3 yards per carry.
On the other hand, the Eagles secondary is terrible and the trio of Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle should eat them up.
Even if the Giants don't win, I expect them to keep this game competitive and cover the spread.
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When picking games against the spread, there are two things that I typically like: (1) home underdogs and (2) teams coming off a bye. Based on that criteria, the Raiders fit the bill in both cases.
The Steelers have picked up some momentum by beating the up-and-down Jets and Ravens, but I think the Raiders are also not as bad as some think.
Fortunately for the Raiders, running back Darren McFadden had the bye week to recover from his hamstring injury and was described as looking more explosive this week at practice. In addition, Raiders wide receiver Denarius Moore, one of my FanDuel values for Week 8, has been highly productive recently: 20/356/3 over his past four games.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 28-23 (54.9%)
2013 Record: 7-14 (33.3%)
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Cowboys at Lions (-3)
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Redskins at Broncos (-12.5)
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Steelers (-2.5) at Raiders
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Lions -3
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Redskins +12.5
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Steelers -2.5
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In what should be a memorable shootout, two of the worst pass defenses will square off in Detroit.
As of late, the Lions have been getting the better of the Cowboys as Detroit has gone 3-1 against the spread in their recent matchups. Although both passing defenses are abysmal, I think the Lions will exploit Dallas more, as they have given up 292 yards per game and 14 touchdowns.
I also like the ability of the Lions to attack on the ground with Reggie Bush, as the Cowboys are very one-dimensional if DeMarco Murray, who is listed as questionable, is unable to return as some expect. I am going to lay the 3 for the home team here, as the Lions will need this W to keep pace in the wildcard pack.
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It was quite the surprise to see the Broncos stumble last week, and now they will be back home in the friendly confines of Mile High.
The Redskins had quite the shootout win against the Bears last week, and Robert Griffin III turned in his best performance of the year. Against the vaunted Bears passing defense, RGIII was able to throw for 298 yards and two scores, and more importantly he rushed for 84 yards. The Broncos, of course, still have the worst passing defense in the league, as they have given up 320 yards and 14 passing touchdowns. The Redskins have been on track offensively, as they have only failed to score less than 20 points once this year.
I cannot say that Washington will win this game, but I think the 12.5 points are way too generous in Mike Shanahan's return to Denver. Anytime I can get 12.5 points with a competent offensive team playing a weak defense, I will take it.
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The Steelers have shown signs of life recently, as they have ripped off two wins in a row and will look to make it three in Oakland.
The Raiders have been frisky this year, and it looks like they will have a quarterback of the future in Terelle Pryror. Although Pryor has played well this year, the Raiders are still the lowest-ranked passing offense in the league, and they have to go against a Steelers defense that allows only 198 yards per game and 5 touchdowns.
Pittsburgh will have the edge throwing the ball against the Raiders pass defense that allows 241 yards per game, and they do not have an answer at corner for Antonio Brown. I love the Steelers to take the road victory this week, as the veteran team with momentum will be able to overcome a 2.5-point hurdle.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 31-20 (60.8%)
2013 Record: 7-14 (33.3%)
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Jets at Bengals (-6)
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Cowboys at Lions (-3)
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Bills at Saints (-11.5)
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Bengals -6
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Lions -3
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Saints -11.5
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The Jets have been one of those Jekyl and Hyde-type of teams this season. They start the season off 2-1, and then they get smoked on the road at Tennessee. The Jets looked so bad in that game, that I honestly thought they would struggle to win 1-2 games the rest of the season.
The very next week they shock the world and beat the Falcons on the road. Jets fans start to pop back out of the woodwork, and then they lay an absolute egg at home against the Steelers. This past week, they beat the Patriots in a thriller. I see a trend of win-loss-win-loss etc, and I see that trend continuing on Sunday.
I expect to see the Bengals front-seven dominate against the Jets on Sunday. I think Geno Smith will have his worst game as a pro. I live in New York. I am ready to listen to the NY media bash him on Monday, and call for Matt Simms to replace him. It’s actually quite entertaining.
The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. They make it five on Sunday with a big win, 27-6.
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The Dallas defense is very banged up. They might have been able to slow down Nick Foles this past week, but slowing down Matthew Stafford and the high-powered Lions offense on the road is a whole different ball game. I expect to see Stafford attack the Cowboys secondary deep, and I think Stafford is a very undervalued fantasy play this week in daily fantasy leagues.
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I do expect this game to be high scoring. The over is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings, and here is another trend where I see it making it five straight. This is going to be one of those games where the last team to have the ball is going to win. Stafford leads his team on a late scoring drive and the Lions win, 37-31.
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I love the Saints at home this week versus the Bills. The Bills will be without RB C.J. Spiller this week, and Fred Jackson is still not 100 percent from a knee injury. The Saints defense is better than people think, and I think QB Thaddeus Lewis is going to be in for a rough afternoon on Sunday.
Saints QB Drew Brees will be getting back one of his most reliable WRs this week in Lance Moore. Moore is my DraftStreet play of the week. I do also expect to see Jimmy Graham back in the lineup as well which should mean another huge week from Brees.
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and this is another trend where I see it going 5-0 as the Saints roll at home, 38-17.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 29-22 (56.9%)
2013 Record: 10-9-2 (52.6%)
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Steelers (-2.5) at Raiders
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Jets at Bengals (-6)
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Cowboys at Lions (-3)
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Steelers -2.5
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Bengals -6
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Lions -3
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The Steelers were minus 11 in the turnover differential during their 0-4 start, but in their two subsequent wins, they have been plus one. It may seem overly simplistic to break success and failure down to just the turnovers, but they were huge part of the Steelers disastrous start to the season.
And despite giving up all those extra possessions early in the season, Pittsburgh is still sixth in total defense this year. The Raiders are a frisky team and I’m always leery of giving points on the road, but Pittsburgh could easily be 4-2 if they were just turnover neutral this year.
This feels like completely mismatched teams as the Raiders are in re-build mode. Steelers should win by a touchdown.
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Did I mention I’m on the Bengals bandwagon? – As a Jets fan, I know the Jets are consistently inconsistent.
After last week’s big win over New England, the Jets are due to falter. These teams actually match up very similarly across both sides of the ball, so the touchdown spread looks big. Except the Bengals are little better in most places and especially at wide receiver because of A.J. Green.
On defense, both teams try to control the line of the scrimmage with a strong defensive line. The Jets are led by Muhammad Wilkerson and the Bengals have Geno Atkins. The Jets are lacking in pass rush, but Cincinnati can get rush with Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap off the edge.
Ultimately, I see it as this rush that will make the difference because it will disrupt the Jets rookie QB Geno Smith. It’ll be close defensive struggle, but the Bengals will win and cover.
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The problem with picking the Lions in this spot is I’m not sure their defense can stop the Tony Romo to Dez Bryant connection. The Lions are 31st in total defense, but with the Cowboys close behind in 29th in total defense, the Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson should also light up the scoreboard.
This game is going to be won by touchdowns, not field goals, so it comes down to who you think is the better team. Neither team gives me much confidence, but I’ll take the Lions to rebound after last weekend’s tough loss to Cincy.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 20-28-3 (41.7%)
2013 Record: 13-7-1 (65.0%)
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Falcons at Cardinals (-2.5)
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Giants at Eagles (-6)
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Dolphins at Patriots (-7)
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Falcons +2.5
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Giants +6
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Dolphins +7
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Sometimes you are what your record says you are, and sometimes you're not. In this case, neither team really is.
The Falcons are better than 2-4 and the Cardinals are worse than 3-4. Arizona does have a pretty good defense, but they're 26th in the league rushing the ball, and Carson Palmer appears to be a failed experiment. Larry Fitzgerald has not put up the kind of numbers he was expected to at the start of the year.
Last year, the Falcons were massively overrated. This year, they are underrated. Atlanta will win this game outright, so I'd take this game +120 on the ML, but definitely take the points here. Full five-unit wager, as this is my favorite bet of the week.
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The Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this year. Nobody had this team starting 0-6. Still, the Giants got their first win under their belt this past Monday night, and I think they have some momentum to build on.
The Eagles are injury-plagued, and are coming off a bad home loss to Dallas. While Michael Vick is getting the start, Matt Barkley is just a hit away from getting in the game. It's pretty clear Vick is not yet 100 percent, so either way, Philly is looking at a difficult QB situation.
I think this is another pretty good ML bet on the Giants at 2-1, but I certainly like this game to be much closer than the last game these two played. Six points is way too much. This is another 5-unit bet.
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The public still loves betting the Pats, so I'm going to keep taking the value against them. They were as high as 5-point favorites at New York last week. The public sees them getting Rob Gronkowski back and reacts.
But if you look deeper at the injuries the Pats have had (Vince Wilfork, Aqib Talib, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola among others), it becomes more clear that the Patriots won't be able to sustain the win rate. Even if you disagree and think they can, they're not going to be winning big enough in these games to cover the kind of spreads they're giving. Of the Pats five wins, only one was by more than a touchdown, against the lowly Bucs, and three of them were by three points or less.
The Dolphins did not look very good against Buffalo, but it doesn't justify being a seven-point 'dog to an injury-ridden division rival. The Patriots have a chance to get people back and put all of the pieces together by year end, but until then, enjoy the inflated spreads they've been getting. They're currently 3-4 ATS, although if they had come up short against New Orleans like they should have, they would be 2-5. Either way, you're a winner on the season taking the points against them.
Until the lines start reflecting the actual product we're seeing as opposed to the name on the jersey, I'll probably continue to take the value against them. Another five-unit bet here.
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