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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, five of our "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
Final 2012 results: Combined record of 130-121-4 (51.8 percent) ATS.
2013 Cumulative Results: 64-75-11 (46.0 percent) ATS.
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 22-28-1 (44.0%)
2013 Record: 16-12-2 (57.1%)
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49ers at Saints (-3.5)
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Chiefs at Broncos (-7.5)
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Patriots at Panthers (-1.5)
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Saints -3.5
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Chiefs +7.5
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Patriots +1.5
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Like the other team most consider to be the best team in the NFC, the Saints are a much better team at home than they are on the road.
49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has struggled this season as he has thrown for less than 200 yards in seven of his past eight games and is coming off a season-low performance against the Panthers. Under defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, the team's defense is much better especially against the pass so it could be another long day for Kaepernick (SuperDome power outages aside).
If the Saints can continue to get some balance running the ball, Drew Brees should continue to have a ton of success at home. In his five home games this season, Brees has completed 74.4 percent of his pass attempts for 367.2 yards per game and has posted an 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio with a quarterback rating of 129.8.
With Sean Payton back on the sideline this season, the Saints are 5-0 at home this season and have outscored their opponents by a margin of 176-75 in those five home games. In their last full season with Payton on the sidelines (and not suspended), the Saints were 8-0 at home as well.
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Flexed into the Sunday Night Football matchup, these two teams are a combined 17-1 on the season and will face each other twice over the next three weeks. This is a classic strength-versus-strength type of matchup as the Broncos lead the NFL in scoring offense and the Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring defense.
Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, a four-time league MVP, is having the best season of his career and quite frankly the best season any quarterback has ever had. Manning is on pace to shatter the single-season passing yards and touchdown records held by Drew Brees and Tom Brady, respectively. In addition, the Broncos have four players that are averaging a touchdown per game: Knowshon Moreno, Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker.
One of the primary reasons the Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring defense is their pass rush. No team has more sacks than Kansas City (36). Not only does Manning, who is hobbled by a high-ankle sprain, have to worry about Justin Houston and Tamba Hali on the outside, but Dontari Poe has been a force in the middle and should collapse the pocket often.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid is a nearly perfect 14-1 after his team's bye. While I expect the Chiefs to get their first loss of the season this weekend and give Reid his second post-bye loss, I also expect this game to be close.
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Earlier this week, I retweeted a remarkable stat — the Patriots are 24-1 in the second half of the season since 2010 and 11-0 on the road.
Things seemed to turn around for the Patriots offense right before the bye. Facing a strong Steelers pass defense, Brady bounced back with a strong performance (432 yards, four touchdowns) after a mostly disappointing season. Eligible to return from injured reserve this week, Shane Vereen gives Brady another weapon and the team finally appears to be at full strength.
Of course, the Panthers defense is one of the league's best. They have yet to allow more than one passing touchdown in a game and they rank in the top four in both rushing and passing defense.
With an extra week to prepare and as a rare underdog, however, the Patriots are one of the best options versus the spread this week.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 28-23 (54.9%)
2013 Record: 8-20-2 (28.6%)
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Browns at Bengals (-6)
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Chiefs at Broncos (-7.5)
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Patriots at Panthers (-1.5)
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Browns +6
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Chiefs +7.5
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Patriots +1.5
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The Browns haven't been this relevant this late the NFL season for a long time, and they could pull right into striking distance this week with a win over the Bengals. The Bengals have struggled as of late; after putting up an offensive explosion on the Jets, they have only scored 37 points in their last two games.
The Bengals are banged up on defense, as their two best defensive players in Leon Hall and Geno Atkins are on IR, and they will be out with Rey Maualuga and Chris Crocker this week as well. The Browns also match up well against the Bengals offense, as they allow 98.2 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, and A.J. Green will have the pleasure of seeing Joe Haden.
The Browns also have the history against the number as well, as they have gone 3-0-1 in their last four when playing Cincy. I know the Bengals are at home, and will look to bust a two-game losing streak, but this game will be within one possession, so I will take the points.
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The game of the week, for certain, will pit the 8-1 Broncos vs. the 9-0 Chiefs for AFC West supremacy. The Broncos are on track to have the best passing attack of all-time, but they will face a stout Chiefs defense that only allows a 53.5-percent completion rate, 208 yards per game, nine TDs in nine games, and they have 36 sacks.
The Broncos come into this game banged up, as they are missing key pieces on the offensive line, and of course the dreaded high ankle sprain for Peyton Manning. The Chiefs also have the offense to keep Manning off the field, as they have one of the league's best backs in Jamaal Charles. I would look for the Chiefs' excellent secondary to play press coverage and disrupt the timing of the Broncos offense, and for the the Chiefs front four to get to Manning though that patchwork line.
The Chiefs have two historical factors working for them, as the underdog in this series is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven. And if you are giving points to that defense in a divisional game, I will gladly take them.
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In the other prime time matchup, we have most likely the second best game of the week, as the Patriots will head south to Carolina.
The Panthers were impressive last week, as they traveled to the west coast, and dominated the 49ers on their home field. Carolina has assembled one of the best defenses in the league, and they have fared well against the pass giving up only 201 yards per game and 7 TDs so far.
The Patriots much maligned offense in the first half of the season is starting to come around, as they have not scored less than 27 points in a game in their last four. Although the Panthers defense has been great, they still have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66 percent of their throws, and Tom Brady finally has a healthy Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, and an emerging Aaron Dobson on the field at once.
It is so rare to see the Patriots get points, so when a gift falls into your lap, you have to open it. I love the Patriots off the bye week, getting points, and on Monday Night Football where they always shine.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 31-20 (60.8%)
2013 Record: 11-18-1 (37.9%)
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Patriots at Panthers (-1.5)
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Jets (-2) at Bills
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Chiefs at Broncos (-7.5)
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Patriots +1.5
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Bills +2
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Broncos -7.5
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Carolina has definitely been impressive lately, especially winning a tough game on the road last week against the 49ers. I have a feeling this week they struggle a bit at home vs. the Patriots.
The Patriots are fresh off a bye week and two of their key players, one on each side of the ball could be back for this game. Shane Vereen is a do-it-all running back, and was off to a great start in Week 1 before breaking a bone in his wrist. A healthy Vereen should take some extra pressure off Tom Brady, who hasn't looked great this season. Patriots corner Aqib Talib might be back as well, which gives the Patriots secondary a shot in the arm that they desperately need.
As much as I like the Panthers story this year, and the further development of Cam Newton, I just don't think they are there yet to beat a Patriots team that had two weeks to prepare for them. Patriots win on the road, 27-17.
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The Bills battle the Jets at home this week, and I love them in this spot.
One week the Jets look like they could contend for a playoff spot, and the very next week they look like a team who should be picking in the top five in the draft. Their last game was a win at home vs. the Saints, which means they are due to get thumped. Look back to the start of the year: win, loss, win, loss, etc. This is a streak I see continuing Sunday.
The Bills will be without their two best receiving options in rookie Robert Woods and Stevie Johnson, but I think they can find offense from tight end Scott Chandler, and wide receivers T.J. Graham and Marquise Goodwin. Running on the Jets defense will be tough, but I think they can air it out even with these no-name weapons and beat the Jets.
Goodwin is one player I am starting Sunday in one of my DraftStreet leagues at a nice bargain of $3,943. [Sign up with DraftStreet and get free entry into $1,000 tournament.]
Bills win at home comfortably, 30-13.
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The Chiefs have been winning ugly this year. There is no doubt that their defense is a force to be reckoned with, but they have looked very beatable as of late. I would be shocked to see the Chiefs win this game, or keep it close.
Denver has issues with their offensive line, but there is no QB in the NFL today, and probably the history of the NFL that can make a decision as quick as Peyton Manning does. I expect another big game from the Sheriff on Sunday Night Football.
There is only so long the Chiefs can utilize their ground game and a dink-and-dunk passing attack. If they want to be a legit contender in the AFC, Alex Smith is going to need to start making plays down field. I just don't see it happening in this one, or come playoffs time.
I like the Broncos big at home, 41-20.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 29-22 (56.9%)
2013 Record: 13-14-3 (48.1%)
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Vikings at Seahawks (-12.5)
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Chiefs at Broncos (-7.5)
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Chargers (-2.5) at Dolphins
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Vikings +12.5
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Chiefs +7.5
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Chargers -2.5
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So, here’s a little known fact: Seattle is not a very good run defense. These types of things tend go unnoticed when you are racking up midseason wins against mediocre teams that can’t run the ball like Atlanta (dead last in the NFL in rushing), and Arizona (24th in the NFL in rushing offense). Sprinkled between those two games were two victories Seattle eked out against the 4-6 Rams and 1-9 Bucs, in which they gave up over 400 yards rushing to those two teams.
If the Seahawks struggled to stop rookies Mike James and Zac Stacy from running the ball, how are they going to handle Adrian Peterson?
What is also missed among the midseason grind is that the Seahawks haven’t beaten a team with a winning record other than the Cardinals (surprising team even to be at .500) since back in Week 2 when they won the showdown game against the 49ers.
Seattle is an exceptionally difficult team at home and I’m not sure Minnesota can stop the Seattle offense. Even if the Vikes can’t pull off the upset, however, getting nearly two touchdowns makes this a sure bet on game that will be closer than most expect.
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That extra half point is just toying with me. I’m not sure if I like the Chiefs to win outright, but I do expect a close game and getting over a touchdown gives me some confidence in the Chiefs.
I don’t believe in the talk about Andy Reid being great with an extra bye week; that’s more representation of having perennially good teams in Philly. But what I also don’t believe in is the concern about the Chiefs playing a “weak” schedule. Lest we forget, divisional rivals play all the same teams except two. And although the Chiefs by some measures have had the easiest schedule through 10 weeks, the Broncos have had the second easiest.
Functionally on the field, the Chiefs team is a real bad matchup for the banged-up offensive line of Denver. The hype tends to go to edge rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston (rightfully both great players), but the difference maker is the nose tackle, Dontari Poe. He’ll bring pressure up the middle, which will disrupt the hobbled Peyton Manning. The best way to stop a great pocket passer like Manning is in the middle of the line, where KC will have the advantage.
I could see this game ending with Peyton Manning two-minute drill for the go-ahead score, but if that’s the case, my 7.5 points will good for the cover.
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This is strictly a play on the current state of dysfunction in Miami. There’s a lot to be said for when the players hit the field that they are solely focused on the game, but I think that’s only true for clubs that are strong-willed and have great veteran leadership.
For example, the Patriots were able to put all the attention of the Aaron Hernandez situation behind them and were ready to play from Week 1. This Dolphins team, though, doesn’t have the same strength in the clubhouse and it was their own lack of oversight and leadership internally that led to the mess.
On the field, the Dolphins aren’t very good to begin with. I think the Fish were found out weeks ago when losing back-to-back games to the Ravens and the Bills. They happened to get lucky against a banged-up Bengals team. The Chargers are the better team and the tight 2.5 point spread isn’t enough to change my thoughts.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 20-28-3 (41.7%)
2013 Record: 16-11-3 (59.3%)
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Falcons (-1) at Buccaneers
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Raiders at Texans (-9.5)
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Cardinals (-9) at Jaguars
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Bucs +1
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Raiders -9.5
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Jaguars +9
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Atlanta got crushed last week at home against Seattle. Even though the Seahawks are an excellent team, they have really been pretty mediocre on the road. If the Falcons weren't able to win that, or at least keep that game competitive, I don't like their chances of winning at Tampa.
The Bucs are coming off their first win of the season, but they have been in many of their games. I expect them to handle the Falcons at home.
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I don't usually like to give this many points, but with Terrelle Pryor officially ruled out, I like the Texans defense to shut down the Raiders. They should force some turnovers and if they don't score themselves, they should set the offense up.
Case Keenum has also been getting better and better, and while the wins/losses may not yet reflect that, I think Houston is going in the right direction with him under center.
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Without question, the Jags have been the worst team in the league this year. And they've been worse at home than they have been on the road. Still, all things come to an end at some point, and I like Jacksonville to give the Cardinals a run at the outright win here. They may not get it, but I'm betting it will be closer than a nine-point game.
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