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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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2012 NFL WEEK 7 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Picks and spreads are as of Thursday, October 18th at 7:33 p.m. ET
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Lines used are always as of the time the pick was made.
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean *
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John
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Steve
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Thu, Oct 18 at 8:30 PM
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49ERS
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8.0
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Seahawks
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Game Thread
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SF -8
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SF -8
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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BILLS
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3.0
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Titans
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Game Thread
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BUF -3
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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VIKINGS
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6.5
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Cardinals
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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COLTS
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2.0
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Browns
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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6.5
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Ravens
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Game Thread
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HOU -6.5
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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Packers
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6.0
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RAMS
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Game Thread
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STL +6
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GB -6
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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Cowboys
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2.5
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PANTHERS
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Game Thread
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DAL -2
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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GIANTS
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6.5
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Redskins
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Game Thread
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Sun, Oct 21 at 1:05 PM
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Saints
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2.0
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BUCCANEERS
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Game Thread
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NO -2
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Sun, Oct 21 at 4:30 PM
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PATRIOTS
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10.5
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Jets
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Game Thread
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NE -10.5
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NE -10.5
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Sun, Oct 21 at 4:30 PM
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RAIDERS
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4.0
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Jaguars
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Game Thread
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JAX +4
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OAK -4
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OAK -4
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Sun, Oct 21 at 8:30 PM
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Steelers
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1.5
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BENGALS
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Game Thread
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PIT -1.5
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Mon, Oct 22 at 8:30 PM
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BEARS
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6.5
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Lions
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Game Thread
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DET +6.5
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* Picks were posted later than the rest of the group.
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Atlanta, Denver, Kansas City, Miami, Philadelphia, San Diego
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%)
2012 Record: 5-12-1 (29.4%)
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Packers (-6) at Rams
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Jets at Patriots (-10.5)
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Jaguars at Raiders (-4)
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Rams +6
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Patriots -10.5
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Jaguars +4
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Like the rest of the NFC West, the Rams have
been tough to beat at home. In fact, they
are 3-0 at home (and 0-3 on the road). With
the exception of their loss to the Bears at
Soldier Field, the Rams have either won or
lost by four points or fewer in five of six
games. The Packers have been an
up-and-down team this year, but they seem
to be getting things back on track after their
statement win and offensive explosion on
Sunday Night Football over the Texans. On
the defensive side of the ball, however, the
Rams have upgraded their secondary and are
tied for the league-low in passing touchdowns
allowed (four). After shutting out Brian
Hartline last week, Cortland Finnegan could
frustrate Jordy Nelson quite a bit this week.
While I don't necessarily think that the Rams
will win this game outright, I do think that it
will be close enough for them to cover.
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While this game features the biggest
spread of the week, it wouldn't surprise me
to see the result be a 42-10 blowout (or
something similar). The Patriots lost a
game last week they should have won.
Their play-calling was questionable and it's
not too often the Patriots cough up a
double-digit fourth-quarter lead. Although
they lost back-to-back games earlier this
year, it's something they typically don't do.
Considering all four teams in the AFC East
are 3-3, they are clearly not all equal. The
Patriots explosive offense should have a
field day against a Revis-less defense with
all of their options in the passing game. In
addition, their rushing attack is legitimate.
While Stevan Ridley had an off game
against the Seahawks, the Jets run defense
is much less stingy than Seattle's. As the
Patriots rack up the points, they will
frustrate Mark Sanchez into mistakes and
stifle Shonn Greene.
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The Raiders played well enough to win last
week on the road against the Falcons, but
they didn't. This week, they host the
Jaguars, who are coming off a Week 6
bye. In their other two road games this
season, the Jaguars lost the Vikings on an
overtime field goal by Blair Walsh and beat
the Colts. Both of these teams lack a pass
rush as they have combined for seven
sacks this season. Stated differently, their
combined total would tie them with the
Eagles for 30th in the NFL. Blaine Gabbert
hasn't progressed much as a passer, but
he certainly does much better facing less
pressure. (Then again, which quarterback
doesn't?) Only two backs have had at least
15 carries vs. the Raiders and both of them
had field days: Reggie Bush (172 yards)
and Willis McGahee (112). I expect the
Jaguars to give Maurice Jones-Drew a huge
workload, which will lead to a huge game.
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Dan
2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%)
2012 Record: 9-9 (50.0%)
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Packers (-6) at Rams
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Saints (-2) at Buccaneers
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Steelers (-1.5) at Bengals
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Packers -6
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Saints -2
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Steelers -1.5
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The Rams have markedly improved their
defense from last year, when they were a
laughingstock, to now being feared. The
Packers have started slow, but had a very
impressive showing against the previously
undefeated Texans on the road. I know one
game does not state that the Packers are all
the way back, but I really think the line of this
game is a little low. The Rams much improved
defense still gives up lots of completions as
they allow opposing QBs to hit 63.7 percent of
their throws, which puts them 23rd in the
league. It's numbers like this that are made
for Aaron Rodgers. The Pack have history on
their side as they have gone 4-1 against the
number when playing the Rams in their last
five. Too much passing offense for the Rams
to handle, and they just do not have the
offensive firepower to keep up with Green Bay.
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I always love divisional games, as the lines
are always favorable and plenty of numbers
to review for your decision. I love the Saints
this week on the road, as Tampa has a
very shaky pass defense that gives up 312
yards per game, and also their best corner
in Aquib Talib is suspended. The Saints
have gotten off the slide, and will be
refreshed off of their bye week, and don't
forget in three of the last four games, the
Saints have racked up 450+ yards on
offense and in the other they only put up
375. The Saints have the edge against the
spread as well, as they have gone 4-1-2 in
their last seven head-to-head. I think the
Buccaneers secondary will be vastly
overmatched this week, as the Saints will
continue the long climb back to playoff
contention. Lay the points here as the
Saints always play great in Tampa.
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Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are coming
off of horrible losses as the Steelers lost to
Tennessee, and the Bengals lost to the
previously winless Browns. Both teams have
a need for this game, as they look to catch
the Ravens in the AFC North. Pittsburgh has
had the long week to think about this
game, and they always play the Bengals
well as they are an impressive 8-2 in their
last 10 against the number head-to-head.
Pittsburgh will also look to exploit a weak
Cincinnati secondary that is ranked No. 19
in the league against the pass, and gives
up 228 yards per game. I know the
Steelers have not looked well as of yet, but
in a must-win game and with the line so
close, Pittsburgh is most certainly two
points better than the Bengals.
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Sean
2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%)
2012 Record: 9-9 (50.0%)
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Cowboys (-2) at Panthers
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Jets at Patriots (-10.5)
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Lions at Bears (-6.5)
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Cowboys -2
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Patriots -10.5
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Lions +6.5
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Something smells fishy with this one. Dallas
isn't as bad as their record indicates and
Carolina isn't very good at all. I don't want to
call this one a must-win game for Dallas, but
if they want any chance at making the
playoffs this year, they have to beat bad
teams. Dallas wins, 27-24.
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A swing and a miss last week vs. the
Seahawks, but the Patriots are back at
Foxboro for some home cooking vs. the
Jets. The Jets destroyed the Colts last
week, and played very well vs. the Texans
the week before. This week it's a divisional
game vs. the Pats. The Patriots sit at 3-3
and are one of the biggest
disappointments of the year to me, but I
think this is one of those statement games
and the Pats go on cruise control the rest of
the way in the AFC East. Pats win big, 41-20.
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I think the Bears are one of the better
teams in the NFC this year, but I think the
Lions front four is going to give the Bears
O-Line trouble, and I believe Calvin
Johnson steals the show in primetime. I
may throw in a moneyline play on this
Monday night as I do think the Lions can
win this one outright. Lions in a squeaker,
23-21.
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John
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 9-7-2 (56.3%)
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Seahawks at 49ers (-8)
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Titans at Bills (-3)
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Jaguars at Raiders (-4)
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49ers -8
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Bills -3
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Raiders -4
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The Seahawks are coming off an impressive
home win over the Patriots, while the 49ers
are coming off a crushing home loss to the
Giants. Seattle is an impressive 3-0 at home,
but a mere 1-2 on the road, and despite their
home loss this past week, San Francisco is a
difficult place to play. Additionally, the 49ers
are now in a three-way tie for the division
lead, rather than just two-way tie they were in
with Arizona last week. San Francisco ran
away with the division last year, and this week
I believe they're going to begin distancing
themselves once again. Seattle is a relatively
strong team on the rise, but they are
overmatched on the road here. The Niners
will be looking to make a statement after last
week's embarrassing loss, and what better
way to do that than against a division rival on
the Thursday night game. I expect a stingy
defensive effort, with the 49ers winning a 24-9
type game.
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The Bills have been terribly inconsistent out
of the gates, with an awful point differential
to start the season. It seems they get
blown out every other week, and yet they
are 3-3 and tied for the division lead with
three other teams, in the league's most
mediocre division. Tennessee won a game
at home against the Steelers that few, if
any, gave them a chance to win. Still, the
Titans have not been impressive this
season, and Buffalo appears like they
should be more talented on both sides of
the ball. I like the Bills to start to get back
on track, which six games into the season,
they are fortunate to be able to do. I don't
think Buffalo is a legitimate contender, but
they are better than they've been playing,
and should handle the Titans at home. I'll
give the points in this one.
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The Raiders have been a disappointment
to say the least. They've begun the year
just 1-4 in what many thought could be a
winnable division for Oakland. They're
coming off a heartbreaking loss in Atlanta
against the undefeated Falcons, losing by a
field goal late. Returning home in Week 7
against a much weaker opponent in the
Jaguars, I think the Raiders get their first
convincing win of the season. They are just
1-1 at home, but the loss was a narrow
eight-point loss to the Chargers in Week 1,
who had looked like a playoff team until
their Monday Night debacle against the
Broncos, and their win was an impressive
come-from-behind victory over the
Steelers. Jacksonville came close to
beating the Vikings in Week 1, and did get
a win over the Colts, but were blown out in
their other three losses, losing by 20, 17
and 38. Oakland should put up enough
points to cover the four against the Jags.
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Steve
2011 Record: N/A
2012 Record: 9-9 (50.0%)
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Ravens at Texans (-6.5)
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Jaguars at Raiders (-4)
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Seahawks at 49ers (-8)
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Texans -6.5
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Raiders -4
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49ers -8
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I didn’t pick against Baltimore last weekend,
and I missed another golden opportunity as
the Ravens failed to cover again as they
squeaked out a two-point win over Dallas (line
was 3.5). Baltimore was also thoroughly
dominated and for the second straight gave
up over 200 rushing yards, but somehow
squeaked out a win with lots of help from the
Cowboys' mental mistakes. Now they travel
to Houston to play the best rushing team in
the NFL, and the Texans coming off a
humiliating loss to the Packers. The Ravens
defense has looked vulnerable all season
long, currently ranked 26th in total defense
and rush defense, and they encountered a
rash of injuries this past weekend. Losing
Ladarius Webb, their best player in the
defensive secondary (sorry Ed Reed was
great, but is past his prime) and on-field
general in Ray Lewis. Not too mention the
best run stopping cog, Haloti Ngata, has a
sprained MCL – he is likely to play, but will
clearly be slowed. My only concern with
picking against the Ravens this weekend is
the extra motivation playing for all their fallen
teammates. However, I have confidence that
the Texans get back on track and expose an
overrated Ravens defense.
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Last weekend, Oakland traveled to Atlanta
and nearly pulled off the upset of the
weekend, however, as is often the case with
Raiders they found a way to lose giving a
last-second field goal to the Falcons. Now
fortunately for the Raiders they go from
playing one of the best teams in the NFL
to, in my opinion, the worst in the
Jaguars. Blaine Gabbert hasn’t yet shown
the poise to play in the NFL, let alone travel
across the country to play in a hostile
environment of the Black Hole that is the
Oakland Coliseum. Oakland’s defense is
only fair, but the Jags offense is atrocious,
averaging only 240 yards per game. The
240 is not only worst in the NFL, but 40
yards per game less than the 31st team,
Arizona. Coming out of the bye week, the
Jags have an extra week to prepare, but I
still don’t see them generating enough
offense to be competitive. The Raiders
may only have one win so far, coming
against Pittsburgh, but by record the
Steelers are the worst team they played.
Their schedule through six weeks is tougher
than most realize and they can build on the
momentum of the tough loss in Atlanta and
get a win over the hapless Jags.
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Bounce-back game meets let-down game.
The Giants ran all over 49ers and Patriots
choked away a game to the Seahawks,
and I don’t think either game reflects the
true talent of either team. My concern
about giving seven in this game is that we
are pitting two of the best defenses (both
top four in total defense) in the NFL and
there may only be seven points scored
between both the 49ers and the Seahawks.
From a match-up perspective, Seattle will
be tough because like the Giants they can
bring pressure with their four down
linemen. Despite the match-up concerns,
we go with the San Francisco pick here as I’
m relying upon one of key strategies to
picking football games – pick consistent
teams. Seattle is consistently good at
home, but consistently bad away. The
49ers, despite last weekend's bad showing,
are one of the best teams in the NFL and
won’t lay an egg two weeks in a row.
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