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Our FREE NFL picks versus the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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Every week, the three (now) five (for 2012) "handicappers" at The Weekly Blitz will pick their three best NFL games against the spread (ATS).
Final 2011 results: Combined record of 84-56-13 (60.0 percent) ATS.
We have a cumulative record this year of 77-70-3 (52.4 percent) ATS.
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2012 NFL WEEK 11 LINES FROM SPORTSBOOK.COM
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SUMMARY OF PICKS BY CONTRIBUTORS
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Week: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17
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Picks are for entertainment purposes only.
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Lines used for each handicapper are the lines at the time of their pick.
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Links to their picks are under the name (as well as below in the grid).
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Spreads are as of Sunday, November 18th at 09:44 a.m. ET
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Kevin
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Dan
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Sean
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John
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Steve
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Date/Time (ET)
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Favorite
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Spread
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Underdog
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Discuss
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Kevin's picks
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Dan's picks
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Sean's picks
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John's picks
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Steve's picks
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Thu, Nov 15 at 8:30 PM
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Bills 19, Dolphins 14
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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REDSKINS
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3.5
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Eagles
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Packers
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3.5
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LIONS
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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GB -3.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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FALCONS
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9.5
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Cardinals
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Buccaneers
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1.5
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PANTHERS
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TB -1.5
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TB -1.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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COWBOYS
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7.5
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Browns
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CLE +8
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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RAMS
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3.5
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Jets
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STL -3.5
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STL -3.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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TEXANS
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15.0
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Jaguars
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HOU -15
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Sun, Nov 18 at 1:05 PM
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Bengals
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3.5
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CHIEFS
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:05 PM
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Saints
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5.0
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RAIDERS
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:25 PM
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PATRIOTS
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9.5
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Colts
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NE -9
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IND +9
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Sun, Nov 18 at 4:25 PM
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BRONCOS
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8.0
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Chargers
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SD +7.5
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DEN -7.5
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Sun, Nov 18 at 8:30 PM
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Ravens
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3.5
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STEELERS
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PIT +3.5
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Mon, Nov 19 at 8:30 PM
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49ERS
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NL
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Bears
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Bye Weeks (see all byes): Giants, Seahawks, Titans, Vikings
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin 2011 Record: 33-14-4 (70.2%) 2012 Record: 12-17-1 (41.4%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Jets at Rams (-3.5)
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Jaguars at Texans (-15)
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Packers -3.5
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Rams -3.5
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Texans -15
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With or without Jordy Nelson (and without Greg Jennings), Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers has got this offense firing on all cylinders. Since Week 4, Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
The Packers have won four consecutive games. Aside from their Week 1 loss to the 49ers, the Packers other two losses were to the Seahawks on an extremely questionable call at the end of the game and to the Colts, who came back on some late-game heroics by Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne.
Despite their 6-3 record, the Packers are playing as well as any team in football with an extra week to prepare for the Lions as they return from their bye . In addition, Nelson is listed as probable and the Packers should have their full complement of receivers (minus Jennings).
It could be shootout, but the Packers will extend their winning streak to five games.
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The Jets made plenty of headlines this week with (mostly) anonymous comments that Mark Sanchez is a better quarterback than "Terrible" Tim Tebow. Despite any real or perceived talent gaps between the two signal-callers, The Sanchize ranks last in the league among qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (52.0 percent).
For the Rams, Steven Jackson is coming off a season-high 101-yard rushing performance against one of the league's top rushing defenses in the Niners. Although it took 29 carries for him to eclipse the century mark, things should be easier for the Rams rushing attack this week.
Only the Bills and Saints have allowed more rushing yards per game than the Jets this season.
Take the Rams Sunday and pick yourself up some copies of the NYC tabloids on Monday.
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In our consensus power rankings, the Texans (first) and the Jaguars (tied for last) are at opposite ends. The Texans have only one loss while the Jaguars have only one win.
The Jaguars will be without Maurice Jones-Drew for another week and their offense has generally struggled this season whether Pocket Hercules was in or out of the lineup. No team has scored fewer points per game (14.1) than the Jags. Meanwhile, the Texans rank third in the NFL in scoring defense (15.9 points per game) and second in total defense (281.6 yards per game).
As bad as the Jags are on offense, their defense gives them a run for their money. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards per game than Jacksonville, which should mean another big week for Houston's Arian Foster.
Don't be intimidated by the spread as this has the makings of one of those 27-3, 31-6, etc. type of games.
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Dan 2011 Record: 24-21-6 (53.3%) 2012 Record: 17-13 (56.7%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
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Chargers at Broncos (-7.5)
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Packers -3.5
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Buccaneers -1.5
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Chargers +7.5
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This is a crucial game for both teams in the NFC North, and also for the overall wildcard playoff picture as well.
The Packers have been hampered a bit by injury, but are coming off the bye week, and they were starting to get the look of the team that went 15-1 last year. The Packers have had great history against the Lions, as they have gone 9-3 in their last 12 against the spread.
Although the Lions have done a great job of shoring up their pass defense this year in yards allowed, they still give up a staggering 66.1 completion percentage to opposing passers. I love Aaron Rodgers coming off the bye, going against a pass defense that allows lots of completions, and 14 TDs on the year.
Green Bay has started slowly, but now is the time that they will beat another division rival, so I'm laying the points here.
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Tampa Bay has been on fire of late, as this will be the third week in a row I will be making a play with them. The Buccaneers have gone an amazing 7-2 against the spread this year so far, and they have also already beaten Carolina as well.
The Bucs boast the No. 1 rushing defense in the league, as this matches up perfectly with what the Panthers do best in running the football. The Buccaneers also surprisingly have enormous offensive firepower with Josh Freeman, Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, and of course rookie sensation Doug Martin.
I love a balanced Tampa attack led by Doug Martin going up against an average Carolina rush defense that allows 116 yards per game.
Every week it seems that the bookmakers keep discounting the Bucs, and if the line is going to be this small, I will gladly take it.
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Maybe it's my Patriots bias that has prevented me from saying that Denver is an elite team this year. While Peyton Manning has certainly looked exceptional on his way back this year, the same could be asked of where exactly did Philip Rivers go?
The Chargers have actually had good fortune playing at Mile High in the past, as they have gone 4-0-4 against the spread in their last eight games. I am still not sold on the Denver defense, as they have allowed a minimal 218 yards per game, but they have also surrendered 16 touchdowns.
I am fairly certain that the Broncos will be winning this game, but when a team that has the second best rushing defense in the league is getting 7.5 points to a divisional opponent, you have to take it.
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Sean 2011 Record: 27-21-3 (56.3%) 2012 Record: 18-12 (60.0%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Colts at Patriots (-9)
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Browns at Cowboys (-8)
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Packers -3.5
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Patriots -9
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Browns +8
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This is one of those can't-miss type of games. Detroit is not the team they were last year, and the Packers are refreshed after a bye last week.
I think we will be talking about the Packers as the team to beat in the NFC after a big win in Detroit.
I think there will be nine passing touchdowns combined in this one with Rodgers throwing six. Packers win, 45-27.
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With a win against the Pats on the road, Andrew Luck, in my opinion, would solidify himself as the choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year. I don't see that happening though.
I think Bill Belichick will dial up a defense that will give Luck a ton of trouble. I think this will be Luck's worst game as a pro.
On the flip side, the Patriots are great at putting up points on the board against mediocre defenses, and the Colts definitely fit the bill. Pats win big at home, 41-17.
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While I do expect the Cowboys to win this game, and overtake the Giants to win the NFC East, they are a team that just can't put people away. The Cowboys also struggle in the redzone. They are 25th in the NFL converting TDs a little more than 40 percent of the time.
Cleveland is actually 31st, but when both teams are converting 3s instead of 7s, I will take the points. The public loves to bet the Cowboys and Vegas loves this fact. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.
Cowboys win, but it's closer than people would expect. Cowboys, 22-16.
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John 2011 Record: N/A 2012 Record: 13-15-2 (46.4%)
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Packers (-3.5) at Lions
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Colts at Patriots (-9)
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Chargers at Broncos (-7.5)
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Packers -3.5
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Colts +9
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Broncos -7.5
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As a general rule, I try not to get goaded into what is historically one of the worst bets in football: small road underdogs. However, my feeling is that the Packers should be a larger road favorite because there is a greater distance between these two teams than their records indicate. Aaron Rodgers is back to playing like the MVP of the league, and Green Bay is coming off a bye.
On the other hand, the Lions were starting to salvage their season before getting beaten pretty soundly by their division-rival Minnesota Vikings. The game ended with the Vikings winning by 10, but Minnesota had control of the entire game.
With Detroit playing inconsistent ball, I like the Packers to cover the small spread in a 31-20 type game.
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The Colts have become more than just a feel-good story. They are a legit threat to make the playoffs, and though they seem to be pretty well behind the traditional powerhouses (Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, etc.), I think they are closer than this spread would indicate.
The Patriots are coming off a lackluster performance against Buffalo, nearly blowing the game before intercepting the ball in the endzone to secure a six-point win. Indianapolis dominated in the Thursday game, and although it was the Jaguars, it was a road game that they won easily. You can only play the teams on your schedule, and so the Colts went into Jacksonville and wiped the floor with them.
For obvious reasons, the Colts are playing inspired football right now, and I like them to give the Patriots a run here. It may take a late Brady score to pull out the victory, so I'll take the nine here for sure.
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It was only a matter of time before Peyton Manning was going to have the Broncos as one of the best teams in the AFC and a legitimate Super Bowl threat (John's picks). Manning is likely in line to become the only five-time MVP (see past winners) and has the offense firing on all cylinders.
Meanwhile, the defense and special teams have also been formidable, coming off a game in Carolina in which they scored on a punt return, an interception return, and a safety. At the moment, the Broncos look like they're playing better ball than anybody in the league.
The Chargers came out fairly strong against Tampa last week, with Philip Rivers throwing for three touchdowns, but he also had an unforgivable pick-six, and ultimately, San Diego did what they usually do, and lost an important game. At 4-5, they still have a chance to compete for a wild card, but I don't think they have the talent or resilience to make that happen.
The last time these two teams played, we witnessed one of the great Peyton Manning comebacks of all time, scoring 35 unanswered points to win 35-24. This time around, I expect a similar result without the need for the epic comeback.
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Steve 2011 Record: N/A 2012 Record: 17-13 (56.7%)
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Buccaneers (-1.5) at Panthers
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Jets at Rams (-3.5)
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Ravens (-3.5) at Steelers
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Bucs -1.5
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Rams -3.5
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Steelers +3.5
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Divisional games on the road are tough, so I’m a little hesitant with this pick, but how can you not like the way the Bucs are playing now? In the preseason, I picked the Bucs to win 10 games, and they are now starting to show the talent that may get them to double-digit wins.
From a matchup perspective, I like what the Bucs can do throwing the ball downfield to Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. On defense, the Bucs have been exposed in the passing game, as the Bucs give up a league worst 321 yards per game; however, the Panthers don’t have any real threats at wide receiver as Steve Smith has lost a step and there is no other complementary pass catcher.
I can see the Bucs scoring early and the Panthers unable to catch up in a shootout.
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And the New York Jets official meltdown begins!
[Editor's note: "begins" equals continues.]
After all the anonymous quotes from the Jets locker room circulating in the papers this past week, I’m surprised the line hasn’t doubled. Everyone sees Saint Louis giving the game away last week against San Fran and still see a bad team.
I’m looking at the Jets performance last week in Seattle and wondering if they forgot to board the plane. The Jets offense is as bad as advertised in the preseason and the Rams defense is improving. I’d take the Rams giving seven even if the game was in New York; three points at home and the game looks a like a gift.
Rams win it by two touchdowns and cover easy.
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I picked this game against my better judgment - almost solely so I can pick against the Ravens again. Two weeks ago, I had this game marked off as one to pick and one where I thought the Ravens would get exposed, but that’s why you go week by week. Big Ben gets hurt last week, and now everything changes.
Allow me to digress back to last week's 35- point win over the Raiders and tell you what I saw: An offense that could only generate rushing 35 yards from their lead back and a defense that was shredded through the air for 368 yards, two touchdowns, and a completion percentage of 65 percent.
Without knowing the context of the game, you would think it was the Raiders who only got 35 yards from their back and Oakland's defense backfield was MIA (well they were, but the Ravens couldn’t stop anyone either). Did it not alarm anyone else that Ray Rice could only rush for 35 yards? Against the same defense that just gave up 251 yards to Doug Martin only one week earlier?! Against a top 5 rush defense like the Steelers and No. 1 rated overall, I have to question the Ravens ability to move the ball offensively.
Furthermore with Rashard Mendenhall returning to the lineup, Baltimore’s questionable run defense is being put to the test. So that brings us back to the key question, can Byron Leftwich do enough for the Steelers to win? . . . that I don’t know, but I like my chances.
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