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EatDrinkandSleepFootball.com
Where Football's a Way of Life!
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Our FREE picks against the spread are purely for entertainment purposes only. But, let's face it, being right (winning) is more fun than being wrong (losing).
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CONTRIBUTOR
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GAME 1
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GAME 2
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GAME 3
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Kevin
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 63.3% (31-18-2)
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Panthers at Saints (-13)
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Cowboys at Eagles (-3)
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Chargers at Giants (-4.5)
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Panthers +13
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Eagles -3
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Chargers +4.5
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Call me crazy -- after all, I've certainly been
called worse -- for picking the Panthers here.
But we are seeing a re-emergence of the
Panthers' rushing attack and Delhomme, well,
hasn't screwed that up allowing the Panthers
to win three of their past four. In the past
four games, DeAngelo Williams (439 rushing
yards) and Jonathan Stewart (261) have
combined for 700 rushing yards for an
average of 5.0 yards per carry and seven
touchdowns. In this series, the road team is
not only 13-1 against the spread (ATS) since
2001, but they are 11-4 straight up. While I
don't expect the Panthers, who were the # 2
seed in the NFC last year, to pull off a huge
upset, I expect them to keep it close -- or, at
least, within 13 points.
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First, I am rooting to be wrong here (as a
Cowboys' fan). But I am realistic. At the
beginning of the season, I predicted the
Eagles to win the NFC East and for the
Cowboys to finish third. But the point
spread indicates that these two teams are
"even" as the home team generally
receives three points for playing at home.
Meanwhile, the Eagles pummeled the New
York Football Giants last week and are
firing on all cylinders. The Cowboys,
specifically Tony Romo, have limited the
mistakes, which has been key to their
three-game winning streak. For the first
time in his career, Romo has gone
interception-less for three consecutive
games. Of all the teams Romo has faced
at least twice, the Eagles are the only team
to force Romo into more interceptions
(eight) than touchdowns thrown (seven).
But the Eagles are 16-9 straight up and
16-7 ATS versus the Cowboys since 1996.
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Philip Rivers is a better quarterback than Eli
Manning. Period. And the difference
couldn't be any more apparent in their past
four games. Although Rivers has faced
defenses like Pittsburgh's, Denver's and
Oakland's (who has Nnamdi Asomugha,
arguably the league's top corner), Rivers
hasn't had a passer rating lower than 93.6
in any of his past four games. During that
span, Rivers has thrown for 261.3 yards per
game, completed 60.5 percent of passes
and thrown eight touchdowns and only one
interception. Eli, on the other hand, has
thrown for 204 ypg, completed 52.1% of
passes and has thrown more INTs (6) than
TDs (5). I expect the Chargers to take
advantage of the Giants' depleted
secondary. The Giants may end their
three-game skid, but the Chargers will, at a
minimum, keep this game close.
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Dan
2009 Record: 60.0% (18-12)
2008 Record: 60.0% (30-20-1)
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Packers (-9.5) at Buccaneers
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Texans at Colts (-9)
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Cowboys at Eagles (-3)
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Packers -9.5
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Texans +9
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Eagles -3
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After a big letdown vs their former leader at
home, the Packers will look to regain their
form as they travel south to face the Bucs.
Green Bay has been quite the feast or famine
team this year, smoking the inferior
competition, and have only posted one quality
win vs the Bears. The Bucs have been just
plain famine, going 0-7 to start the year, and
if form holds, it will make it 0-8. Green Bay
has pasted the Lions, Browns and Rams by
28.26, and 19, and I look for Aaron Rogers to
hang another big number on Sunday as he
has posted 5 straight 100+ QB rating games.
Tampa looks to start its 3rd quarterback this
year rookie Josh Freeman against the 7th-
ranked passing defense in the league.
Looking at the trends, Green Bay is 4-3 vs the
spread this year, while Tampa is 1-6 against,
and 1-8 in their last 9. I don't see any spark
for the Bucs coming off the bye week, and for
Josh Freeman to become well acquainted with
Charles Woodson. Another big lay for the
visiting team this week, but since the number
is with in 10 give the points.
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My interest with the Texans continues, as
last week I wrote about their ability to
evolve into a contender, and now step four.
Are the Texans ready to contend for a
division title? I don't think they are quite
there yet, but they certainly are within 9
points of the Colts on the road. Houston
has to deal with the loss of a major
offensive weapon in Owen Daniels, but still
have prime targets in Andre Johnson and
Kevin Walter. The Colts are humming along
at a machine-like pace, but have posted
quite a few close games along the way.
Remember four of the last five matchups
have been decided by 6 points or less,
although they all went in the Colts' favor.
Houston is 5-2 vs the spread this year, and
6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Indy has
posted a 4-9 mark in their last 13 games
at home. I would look for lots of points this
week, as the Texans will have trouble
dealing with Peyton Manning at home, but
Matt Schaub is a gamer and will keep the
game tight. I am not saying that the
Texans will pull the upset here, but they
certainly are well within 9 of Indy.
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I am feeling pretty good lately, so I will
take a crack at the best game on paper
Sunday has to offer. The Eagles come in off
a beatdown against the Giants, while the
Cowboys have silently run off a 3-game
winning streak. Tony Romo has silenced his
critics, and has posted 3 straight games
without a pick, well I think it's time for the
chirping to begin again. I am sure the bad
memories of last season still hang heavy
on the Pokes, when they experienced an
embarrassing 44-6 loss to end their playoff
hopes in Philly. The Eagles offense is in
high gear with the continued emergence of
DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, and
will get a boost with the return of Brian
Westbrook. In the trend category, Philly
has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, and has
posted a 5-2 record vs the spread. Dallas is
also 2-9 against the number in their last 11
meetings NFC East foes. Speaking of 11,
Roy Williams has recently gone TO with the
media, in which the sideshow with some
player from the Cowboys always happens. I
would look for the Eagles to maintain their
offensive groove, and a big play from
DeSean Jackson. Take the favorites at
home here.
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Sean
2009 Record: 55.2% (16-13-1)
2008 Record: 52.9% (27-24)
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Packers (-9.5) at Buccaneers
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Cowboys at Eagles (-3)
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Texans at Colts (-9)
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Buccaneers +9.5
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Eagles -3
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Texans +9
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Once called the Bay of Pigs, Tampa definitely
fits this bill as one of the worst teams in the
NFL. I think Green Bay comes out a little flat
in this one after a tough loss at home against
Minnesota last week. Tampa Bay had an
extra week to prepare for this matchup, and
even though Tampa is horrible, I expect them
to compete in this game and keep it close. I
will take the big home dog in this one.
Green Bay 24 Tampa Bay 17
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Roy Williams had to open his big mouth.
The team has been on a roll and they have
a very important matchup on the road
Sunday night vs the Eagles. The Eagles did
lose to the Raiders this year which is
absolutely terrible, but they looked like a
well oiled machine that we thought they
have been all year last week vs the Giants.
The Cowboys definitely have been one of
the strongest teams in the NFC this year.
Their defense has been playing better of
late, and Tony Romo has really emerged
into a pretty good QB. Of course playing in
Philly against the blitzing Eagles is going to
be tough. I have a feeling Romo and the
Boys come back to earth a little here.
McNabb has a big day for the Eagles, and
they roll another NFC East opponent.
Eagles 31 Cowboys 17
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At 5-3 the Texans are staring the playoffs
in the face. They will have a tough go this
week vs Indy but recent history shows that
these two teams are very close.
Remember it was just last year the Texans
were destroying the Colts at home until a
complete meltdown by Sage Rosenfels and
a 21-point 4th quarter by the Colts led
them to a victory. The Colts had a rough
go last week vs the 49ers. They should get
back on track vs a weaker defense in
Houston, but Houston has too much
firepower on offense themselves even
without TE Owen Daniels lost for the
season, and RB Steve fumbilitis Slaton in
the doghouse.
Colts 34 Texans 27
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Jamie
2009 Record: 43.3% (13-17)
2008 Record: 55.1% (27-22-2)
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Steelers (-3) at Broncos
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Cowboys at Eagles (-3)
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Chargers at Giants (-4.5)
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Steelers -3
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Eagles -3
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Chargers +4.5
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Coming off their bye week, a refueled Pitt
team will be ready for an improved Broncos
team. But the Broncos and K Ortron will be no
match for the Steelers this week. Look for Pitt
to use a few 3-WR sets and for Mike Wallace
to get open deep. Denver won't be able to do
much with the ball when they have it so the
Steelers seem like the obvious play.
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Remember last year? Dallas needing a win
in Philly to get into the playoffs and they
got smacked on the butt like a newborn
baby? I do. It was the worst Cowboys loss
since P Diddy took over the Pokes. Romo
hasn't thrown an INT in 3 straight games
and all is well in Cowboys land? They come
crashing back to earth after another
smackdown by Philly on Sun night. Eagles
-3 all the way.
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The Giants might win this game by a FG at
the most despite the death of a great RB
a.k.a. LT. It was a great run, LT, but let's
have a moment of silence for him.... Ok
now that's over, the Chargers are turning
into a pass-first offense now and Sproles
fits the bill with his big play ability. This
should be a close one as no way I see the
beating the Giants took last week
happening again. Coughlin won't let it
happen. But they are not what they once
were and the trend continues this week as
they might win -- but by a FG, at most.
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