Aug. 5th - Peyton finally got the "can't-win-the-big-one" monkey off
his back. Although he didn't have the game of his life, he played well
enough to earn Super Bowl MVP honors and to lead the Colts to the
title against Urlacher and the stingy Bears defense.
To host the AFC Championship game in 2005, the Colts only needed to
beat a 6th-seed at home. Instead, Peyton and the Colts were upset
by the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers. In 2006, the Colts had
a much tougher road to host the AFC Championship game as they beat
the Chiefs at home, went on the road to beat the Ravens and needed
help from the Pats (to upset the Chargers).
L.T. only had 9 carries (41 yds) in the 2nd half against the Pats and no
carries after 4:30 left in the 4th quarter when the game was tied 21-21.
I'm not a big fan of the "woulda, coulda, shoulda's", but one could
make the argument that the Chargers would have won had they given
the league's MVP more touches down the stretch.
The Colts, the league's worst rushing defense in 2006, might not have
been able to stop L.T., the league's best RB, even though they were
better versus the run with Bob Sanders back. Perhaps fortunately for
Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning and the Colts, they will never find out
what would have happened in a Chargers/Colts match-up in 2006...
Of course, hindsight is 20-20 and it's a new season now. However, one
thing that carries over from 2006 is the AFC's dominance. The
Chargers, Ravens, Colts and Patriots are the 4 best teams in the AFC
and arguably in the NFL.
All 4 teams play the other 3 teams in the 2007 season. The Chargers
and Ravens host 2 of their 3 games versus the other 3 teams. On the
other hand, the Colts and Pats have to go on the road for 2 of their 3
games against last year's division winners. (Since 2000, home teams
have won 57% of regular season games.) Since all 4 teams are fairly
even, home-field advantage could be the determining factor of this
year's AFC playoff seeding...
The Colts won Super Bowl XLI, but lost several key players in the
off-season - both starting corners, Cato June and Tariq Glenn. As the
only team in the NFL to allow more yards rushing (173.0/g) than
passing (159.3/g) in 2006, their defense should struggle against the
run/pass this year after losing Nick Harper and Jason David.
|
|
|
Of course, it will be a steep challenge for their opponents to beat the
league's most explosive offense in a shoot-out.
Considering Brady's, Belichick's and the Pats' track record of success
this decade and their aggressive off-season moves, it's a fool's bet to
pick against the Pats. In fact, I'm projecting two of their newly-acquired
players, Adalius Thomas and Randy Moss, will win the award for
Defensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year,
respectively. (Jerry Porter, 1 reception in '06, and Clinton Portis, 523
yds rushing in '06, are 2 other players I think have a good shot at
winning Comeback Player of the Year.)
L.T. is the league's best and most versatile player. Norv Turner is an
offensive genius. Philip Rivers should benefit under Turner's tutelage,
but Turner's previous head coaching experiences (winning just 41.5% of
his games as head coach) haven't turned out as he had hoped.
Antonio Gates is the league's best TE. Shawn Merriman knocks
RBs/QBs into tomorrow. And they certainly should have the motivation
after getting upset in their only playoff game last season...
Despite losing Jamal Lewis and, more importantly, Adalius Thomas, the
Ravens still have the best defense in the AFC and probably in the NFL.
Even without Thomas, the Ravens defense is still loaded with Ray
Lewis, who claims to be in his best shape in recent years, Ed Reed,
Chris McAllister, Bart Scott, Terrell Suggs, etc. Plus Willis McGahee is
more than a replacement at RB - he's an upgrade. The defense is as
good as it's been since their Super Bowl win and their offense is better.
In the NFC, I expect the division winners to win roughly 10-11 games
with the exception of Chicago. The NFC Division winners would struggle
to make the playoffs in the AFC, but who cares? To get to the Super
Bowl, they only have to be the best of the NFC. Despite the Bears
having the NFC's best defense, question marks at QB/RB make me
think it's unlikely that they'll get back to the Super Bowl.
If the current trend holds true (the Panthers have had their best
seasons every other year - '03 and '05), Carolina is due for a strong
season. They've had success when it's not expected and disappointed
when success was expected. With a favorable schedule - only 5 games
versus teams that had winning records last year and 4 of those 5 are at
home (Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas and Seattle), I think Carolina
is poised to surprise some folks. Well, except for me...
|
|
