The 2011 season is in the books and we are more than a week into the "offseason" -- but you could argue there really is no offseason in the NFL.
In addition to the NFL Scouting Combine being next week, the start of free agency is less than a month away (March 13th) and the NFL draft is a little more than two months away (April 26-28).
One of the players taken early (sixth overall by Atlanta) in last year's draft was Alabama receiver Julio Jones. Both Jones and Georgia's A.J. Green, taken fourth overall by Cincinnati, made major impacts in their rookie seasons.
After a breakout performance in Super Bowl XLV, Green Bay receiver Jordy Nelson had a breakout season last year. While teammate Greg Jennings was named to the Pro Bowl, Nelson (and New York's Victor Cruz) certainly could have argued that they were more deserving.
In my initial rankings for 2012, I ranked Jones 11th and Nelson 12th at wide receiver. In other words, I expect big (and similar) seasons from a fantasy perspective out of both receivers in 2012.
As we have been doing every Friday in 2012, we have answered one roundtable discussion question each week. Our roundtable question of the week: Which receiver will have a more productive season in 2012: Jones or Nelson?
Kevin (follow on Twitter): Julio Jones, Falcons
Let's be clear, deciding between Nelson and Jones is a win-win situation for fantasy owners as both receivers, barring injury, should deliver terrific seasons for their respective owners in 2012. In both situations, these receivers are their team's No. 2 options at wideout, at least in name, behind Green Bay's Greg Jennings and Atlanta's Roddy White, respectively. From a fantasy perspective, that is a good thing. In other words, as teams focus on stopping and rolling coverage toward a team's No. 1 option, it creates a few more one-on-one matchups for guys like Nelson and White.
With Jennings out of the lineup, Nelson had two monster games to close the regular season. In those two games, Nelson scored one-third (five) of his touchdowns for the season (15). While he was relatively consistent, Nelson had five games with 40 yards receiving or less and no scores counting the team's playoff loss. At full health (and assuming Jermichael Finley is back), the Packers have a ton of options, which means Nelson won't get nearly as many targets as he should based on talent alone.
On the other hand, Jones had three games with 40 yards or less and no scores and he got hurt in two of those three games. Granted he also missed four games due to injury, but both receivers had the same number of 100-yard games: five. Jones was as productive as Nelson down the stretch. In his final four games, Jones finished with 20 receptions for 393 yards and six touchdowns and many expect the Falcons to transition to more of a pass-first offense in 2012.
Again, these guys are No. 11 and 12 in my rankings so they are both great options.
John (follow on Twitter): Jordy Nelson, Packers
I'll take Jordy Nelson. Both Jones and Nelson are the number 2 receiver on their respective teams, and ultimately, Green Bay has a much more prolific offense. Although Julio Jones is more likely the rising star, for now, I think Nelson will remain the more productive fantasy receiver. This past season, Aaron Rodgers threw for 45 touchdowns and sat out of the final game of the season. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, threw for just 29 touchdowns playing a full schedule. On sheer volume, Nelson is likely to have more touchdown grabs. In 2011, Nelson had 15 touchdowns to Jones' 8. Next year may have a smaller gap, but in my opinion, the offensive production of each team too heavily favors Nelson and the Packers to take Jones here.
Sean (follow on Twitter): Jordy Nelson, Packers
Jordy Nelson was the third-best fantasy wideout last season, behind only Calvin Johnson and Wes Welker. Julio Jones on the other hand was rated 21st. Jones did miss four games though. If you polled all 32 defensive coordinators in the NFL and every CB in the league, you will find that 75% or more would feel that Jones is more dangerous than Nelson, and I would agree with that. Does this translate over to fantasy football though? The answer is a resounding No.
Jordy "White Lightning" Nelson will have a better fantasy season this year for one reason, and one reason only and that is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers had 16 more passing TDs than Matt Ryan did last year (45/29). Rodgers developed a great connection with Nelson this year, and I see a double-digit TD season in his future again. I actually think Nelson could be a 100/1,500/15 WR next year, and it wouldn't shock me to see him at No. 3 again this year.
The Falcons are getting away from their smashmouth style football as Ryan had a career year in yards and touchdowns this season. I really don't see Ryan getting close to that 40 TD mark where Rodgers is pretty much a lock to get next season. Ryan's No. 1 target was Roddy White, but I expect that to change this year. White did have a somewhat disappointing year last season. He had a bunch of key drops which ended drives for the Falcons. I think Jones could overtake White as the Falcons No. 1 WR next season because of his big play potential. All this being said, and I still don't think he will be as good as Nelson next year. Jones is definitely someone I will be targeting on draft day.
The beauty of Jordy Nelson is that everyone is going to overlook him on draft day, just like people have been overlooking Wes Welker for years.
Steve: Jordy Nelson, Packers
I think Jones will improve a little this year, but I'm "all in" on Jordy Nelson and all else being equal this is more of a nod toward Aaron Rodgers. I also see 2012 as being the year that Jordy Nelson takes over the role as the number 1 receiver in the Packers offense. Both players had 96 targets in 2011, but Nelson had 1,263 receiving yards, to Jones' 959, nearly 35% more production for the same number of targets. I expect Jones to improve to 1,100-1,200 yards and 6-8 scores and I do not see Nelson replicating his 15 touchdowns from last year. However, I do think Nelson ups the yardage to 1,500+ and still finds the endzone 10 times in 2012, making him a top 3 WR and a much better fantasy option.
Previous Fantasy Football Friday Posts:
- Feb. 10: Which TE should be drafted third in 2012?
- Feb. 3: Which AFC West RB will have a better 2012 season: McFadden or Mathews?
- Jan. 27: Who should be the 2nd WR selected in Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 20: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 13: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?
- Jan. 6: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham?
