TheDailyBlitz.com

According to NFL Network's Jason La Canfora, Steelers receiver Hines Ward won't be back with the team next year.

Heading into the final year of his current deal, Ward is due to earn $4 million next year and he's coming off the least productive season he has had since his rookie season.

Last year, Ward finished with 46 receptions for 381 yards and two touchdowns. From Week 7 to 17, Ward had only 144 yards and no touchdowns.

Teammates Mike Wallace (1,193) and Antonio Brown (1,108) both 1,000-yard seasons.

Ward, the team's third-round pick in 1998, ranks eighth all-time in receptions (1,000) and 18th in receiving yards (12,083).

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Earlier this morning, I released my initial fantasy football rankings for 2012. One thing is certain: They will change a lot from now until the start of the 2012 NFL season.

At the top of my tight end rankings, you will find New England's Rob Gronkowski, who had arthroscopic surgery on his ankle this morning, and New Orleans' Jimmy Graham in the top two spots. And from site to site, that will (should) be the case.

As we do every Friday, we respond to a weekly fantasy football roundtable question.

This week's topic: Who should be the third tight end off the board in 2012 fantasy football drafts?

Kevin (follow on Twitter):

In my rankings, Jason Witten is a spot higher than Antonio Gates at No.'s 3 and 4, respectively. When drafting a tight end, however, my hope is to take the guy that goes last out of my top six (in order of my rankings): Gronkowski, Graham, Witten, Gates, Vernon Davis and Aaron Hernandez. I can see any of the next four after Gronkkowski and Graham finishing third at the position in fantasy points. Witten had five-year lows in receptions (79), targets (117) and receiving yards (942), but I expect him to bounce back in 2012. Especially if the Cowboys don't re-sign receiver Laurent Robinson, an unrestricted free agent, Witten may get a few more targets that would otherwise go to Robinson. Either way, I worry about Gates durability so I'll let someone else assume that risk. And again, I'd prefer to draft Davis or Hernandez, assuming the other four players are the first four tight ends off the board.

John (follow on Twitter):

The position of TE has expanded offensively of late. A few years ago it was pretty much Tony Gonzalez and maybe a few guys that had good years, but that was about it. Today, it's a different game, and there are several quality options. After Gronkowski and Graham, I think there are a lot of guys that are pretty close in value; guys like Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten, Aaron Hernandez, and Brandon Pettigrew are all solid options. Still, my number three TE would have to be Antonio Gates. Gates seemed to be emerging as the premiere TE in the league over the last few years, but has been so injury-plagued that it has kept him from truly separating himself. Gates' athleticism has made him either 1 or 1a for Philip Rivers, and anytime you have a TE that is a number one option for a quarterback, you have a guy worth having on your fantasy team. In spite of his injuries, I would take a chance on Gates. There is enough depth at TE now that you could likely get a guy like Owen Daniels or Greg Olson as a viable back up in the event that Gates does miss time.

Sean (follow on Twitter):

So to answer the big question on who I want as the 3rd TE off the board this year, it's ... drum roll ... Aaron Hernandez, and the beauty of Hernandez is that most likely Witten & Gates will likely both be gone before him. I wouldn't try to get too fancy though and wait on him too long. The main reason why I love Hernandez this year is because of the amount of balls Brady throws to his TEs. Hernandez only had 11 less receptions, and even better only less 11 targets than Gronkowski. Brady's numbers to his two big TEs: 169 receptions, 2,237 yds and 24 TDs. I'm not suggesting, we split these numbers 50/50, but I could see a scenario where Gronkowski gets a lot of extra attention and Hernandez surpasses him as the team's top TE. Randy Moss had a disappointing year after his 2007 ridiculous season and I could see the same thing happening to Gronkowski. Brady will throw the ball to whomever, and can make a star out of anyone even if they don't have a ton of talent. Look out Hernandez in 2012!

Dan (follow on Twitter):

If I have the chance to take the third tight end this year, I am grabbing Antonio Gates of the Chargers. Gates has been hobbled the last few years with the toe and other assorted injuries. Although he missed time last year, he still had 13 games with 778 yards and seven touchdowns, and not all of those games were quality starts. Gates was the prototype TE, and he is always the No. 1 target in the red zone.

Steve:

Aaron Hernandez should be third off the board. It's hard to imagine the second tight end from the Patriots, but the Pats are the best offense in the NFL at using the TE. Despite Gronkowski's record-setting performance last year, Hernandez was still was fifth in targets and fourth in receiving yards for the position. As defenses continue to adjust for Gronkowski, I'd expect it to open up more opportunties Hernandez. If Aaron Hernandez's number of targets goes up from the 113 he got this year, I'd forecast 1,000-1,100 yards and 10-12 TDs.

Related: Our 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, 1.0

Previous Fantasy Football Friday Posts:
- Feb. 3: Which AFC West RB will have a better 2012 season: McFadden or Mathews?
- Jan. 27: Who should be the 2nd WR selected in Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 20: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 13: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?
- Jan. 6: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham?

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 10:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Not only did Drew Brees become the first player to have two 5,000-yard seasons, but this time he broke Dan Marino's previous single-season record of 5,084 passing yards.

In fact, he shattered it.

The Saints quarterback threw for 5,476 as he broke the record in his 15th game of the season. Brees broke a number of other records this year including completions (468), completion percentage (71.2 percent) and 300-yard games (13).

In his two postseason games this year, Brees threw the second- and third-most yards ever in a playoff game after Cleveland's Bernie Kosar. Brees completed 73 of 106 passes for 928 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions in those two games.

If you include the playoffs, Brees threw for 6,404 yards, 53 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 18 games this year.

That said, he's unlikely to win the league's MVP award.

In my predictions of postseason awards a month ago, I thought Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers would win the MVP and Brees would win the Offensive Player of the Year award, which is the way it turned out.

It made sense.

Brees was more prolific, Rodgers was more efficient.

Rodgers was nearly perfect this season.

Although 15 quarterbacks threw more pass attempts than Rodgers (502), no quarterback had more fantasy points. Rodgers set the NFL record for passer rating (122.5) and broke the franchise record for passing touchdowns (45) while throwing a career low of six interceptions as a starter.

Here are some more notes on quarterbacks:

- As Rodgers sat out, Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn set the franchise record with 480 passing yards and six touchdowns against the Lions in the regular-season finale. With the Dolphins naming Joe Philbin, who was the Packers offensive coordinator as their new head coach, the Flynn-to-Miami speculation has begun for the soon-to-be free-agent signalcaller.

- Brees wasn't the only 5,000-yard passer this season. New England's Tom Brady (5,235) and Detroit's Matthew Stafford (5,038) both reached the 5,000-yard milestone and New York's Eli Manning, Super Bowl XLVI MVP, just missed it by 67 yards.

- After playing only 13 games in his first two seasons, Stafford played a full 16-game season, was named AP Comeback Player of the Year and led the Lions to their first playoff appearance since the 1999 season. Perhaps with better health for their running backs (Mikel LeShoure, Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, etc.) next year, Stafford will throw a few less times. That said, he threw a league-high 663 times, which is the third-highest in league history after Drew Bledsoe (691 in 1994) and Peyton Manning (679 in 2010).

- One of the biggest wildcards going into the 2012 season will be the status/health of Peyton Manning, who missed the entire season with his neck injury. Manning is due a $28 million roster bonus on March 8th. Not only are the Colts are virtually guaranteed of drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in this year's draft, they are expected to release Manning as well.

- Panthers quarterback Cam Newton had a record-setting rookie campaign and ran away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award (see past winners). Not only did Newton break the record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (14), he became the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000-plus yards (4,051) and run for 700-plus yards (706).

- Similar to Newton as a dual-threat quarterback, Philadelpia's Michael Vick had a disappointing season. Not only did Vick miss three games and fail to reach 4,000 total yards (3,303 passing yards and 589 rushing yards), but he ran for only one touchdowns. In 2010, Vick ran for nine touchdowns. With his size and style of play, Vick will always have a higher-than-average risk of injury (missing games), but fantasy owners have the potential to reap huge returns on a per-game basis.

- Although he did not become the team's starting quarterback until Week 7, Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow had the second-most rush attempts (122) and rushing yards (660) at the quarterback position this year. Counting his two postseason starts, however, Tebow threw for 200-plus yards only three times and had less than 100 passing yards in two starts.

- Tampa's Josh Freeman regressed considerably in his third season. After posting a 25:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2010, Freeman threw only 16 touchdowns and a league-worst 22 interceptions.

- Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, missed six games last year, but he struggled when he was on the field. Bradford's completion percentage dropped from 60.0 percent in 2010 to 53.5 percent in 2011 and he threw only six touchdowns in the 10 games he played last year. While the Rams will likely lose Brandon Lloyd via free agency, many mock drafts have the Rams taking Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, the back-to-back Biletnikoff winner.

- Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan threw a few less passes in 2011 (566) than he did in 2010 (571), but he set career highs in passing yards (4,177) and touchdowns (29). Although Ryan threw more interceptions this year than last, he had a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio after the bye and it's expected that the Falcons will transition to becoming more of a passing offense.

Here are our 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Cam Newton, Panthers
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions
6. Tony Romo, Cowboys
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Michael Vick, Eagles
10. Matt Schaub, Texans
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
13. Tim Tebow, Broncos
14. Peyton Manning, Colts (soon-to-be free agent?)
15. Andy Dalton, Bengals
16. Jay Cutler, Bears
17. Joe Flacco, Ravens
18. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
20. Carson Palmer, Raiders
21. Matt Moore, Dolphins
22. Mark Sanchez, Jets
23. Alex Smith, 49ers
24. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
25. Sam Bradford, Rams

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: RBs - WRs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Jaguars had the league's worst-ranked offense, which makes what running back Maurice Jones-Drew did all that more impressive.

Jacksonville averaged only 259.3 yards per game of total offense, but that was primarily due to their deficiencies in the passing game. The Jaguars averaged only 136.2 passing yards per game in 2011.

Despite having to face many eight-men fronts, Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing with 1,606 yards. And perhaps more impressively, he became the first running back in league history to rush for at least 80 yards in 15 of 16 games.

Along with Atlanta's Michael Turner, MJD was one of only two running backs to go over 300 carries. MJD had a league-high 343 carries, which is the fourth-most over the past five seasons.

Here are some more notes on running backs:

- Ravens running back Ray Rice set career highs in rushing yards (1,364) and receiving yards (704) plus he scored a total of 15 touchdowns, which shatters his previous career high of eight. Rice has three straight seasons with 1,200-plus rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards and 60-plus receptions.

- Broncos running back Willis McGahee, who turned 30 in October, was one yard shy of 1,200 yards for the third time in his career and the first time since 2007. That said, he had a career low in rushing touchdowns (four) last year.

- Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch finished the season with 1,204 rushing yards and 212 receiving yards with 13 total touchdowns last year. He was particularly tough from Week 9 on. He rushed for 100-plus yards six times in his final nine games including against the 49ers, the league's top-ranked run defense.

- In the 11 games he finished, Bears running back Matt Forte was an absolute stud. During those 11 games, he had 985 rushing yards and 490 receiving yards on 52 receptions and he was on pace for 2,145 yards from scrimmage for the season.

- Despite missing three games, Houston's Arian Foster carried the ball 278 times for 1,224 yards and 10 touchdowns and had 53 receptions for 617 yards. Counting the postseason, Foster had nine 100-yard rushing games and three 100-yard receiving games in 15 games last year. Through the postseason, Foster has 656 carries for 3,125 yards and 29 touchdowns plus 127 receptions for 1,272 yards and four touchdowns in 31 games over the past two seasons.

- Foster's teammate Ben Tate finished with 942 rushing yards and 98 receiving yards. Tate rushed for 100-plus yards four times last year.

- Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy, the Eagles' second-round pick in 2009, set career highs in carries (273), rushing yards (1,309) and rushing touchdowns (17). McCoy sat out Week 17, but he scored at least one touchdown in every game he played except for Weeks 11 and 16.

- Miami's Reggie Bush nearly doubled his previous career high with 1,086 rushing yards on 216 carries. Like McCoy, Bush sat out Week 17. Before that, Bush rushed for 100-plus yards in four straight games and no running back had more rushing yards than Bush (519) during that four-game span.

- From Weeks 7 to 12, no running back had more rushing yards than Cowboys rookie DeMarco Murray (761). (Rams running back Steven Jackson (593) had the second most during that span.)

- Three elite running backs are coming off torn ACLs: Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, Kansas City's Jamaal Charles and Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall. Of the three, Charles' injury happened the earliest (Week 2), which gives him the best chance to be ready for opening day.

- Jets running back Shonn Greene set career highs across the board: carries (253), rushing yards (1,054) and touchdowns (six) in addition to receptions (30) and receiving yards (211). That said, Greene was mostly mediocre aside from a two-game span in Weeks 13/14: 46 carries for 217 yards and four TDs plus six receptions for 84 yards.

- Speaking of mediocre, Titans running back Chris Johnson had a lackluster season with the exception of a four-game span. Johnson rushed for a total of 486 yards and had three of his four 100-yard games of the season during that stretch. In the other 12 games, however, Johnson had 177 carries for 561 yards (3.17 yards per carry) and one rushing touchdown.

- For the third straight season, Bengals running back Cedric Benson has rushed for more than 1,000 yards. That said, only three backs have had more carries than Benson (895) over the past three seasons. Both Brendan Donahue (see his mock) and I (see my mock) have the Bengals using one of their two first-round picks on a running back.

- In the final six games of the season, the Redskins had five 100-yard rushing games by rookie running backs. Roy Helu, their fourth-round pick, had three of them and Evan Royster, a sixth-round pick, had two of them.

- Only four players had more rushing touchdowns than New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis (11). Of the players with double-digit rushing touchdowns, The Law Firm had the fewest rushing yards (667), by far.

Based on standard scoring (i.e., not point-per-reception (PPR) scoring), here are our 2012 fantasy football running backs rankings:

1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Arian Foster, Texans
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
5. Matt Forte, Bears
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
7. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
8. Darren McFadden, Raiders
9. Chris Johnson, Titans
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
11. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
12. Steven Jackson, Rams
13. Frank Gore, 49ers
14. Michael Turner, Falcons
15. Fred Jackson, Bills
16. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
17. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
18. Michael Bush, Raiders
19. Darren Sproles, Saints
20. Reggie Bush, Dolphins
21. Roy Helu, Redskins
22. Willis McGahee, Broncos
23. Shonn Greene, Jets
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
25. Mark Ingram, Saints
26. C.J. Spiller, Bills
27. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
28. Cedric Benson, Bengals
29. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
30. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
31. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
32. Peyton Hillis, Browns
33. Ben Tate, Texans
34. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
35. Jahvid Best, Lions
36. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
37. Pierre Thomas, Saints
38. Kevin Smith, Lions
39. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
40. Donald Brown, Colts
41. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
42. Ryan Williams, Cardinals

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - WRs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Detroit's Calvin Johnson had some (very) good seasons going into the 2011 season.

With elite size (6-5, 235 pounds) and athleticism, however, Megatron seemed capable of even more, especially with improved quarterback play. Not only did Matthew Stafford, the top overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, stay healthy for 16 games, he is one of only (now) four quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 5,000-plus yards.

Meanwhile, Johnson blew away his previous career highs. In 2011 (previous highs in parenthesis), Johnson had 96 receptions (78) for 1,681 yards (1,331) and 16 touchdowns (12).

Only six players in NFL history had more receiving yards in a season.

Before 2011, the last player(s) to finish with 1,600 yards in a season were Torry Holt and Randy Moss back in 2003. Plus, Moss and Johnson were the only two receivers to have at least 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns in the same season.

Johnson had a little bit of dryspell from Weeks 10 to 14 -- no 100-yard games and only one touchdown in five games.

In his next (and final) four games counting the Lions' playoff loss, however, Megatron had three 200-yard games. During that four-game span, he had 36 receptions for 771 yards and six touchdowns!

Hands down, he goes into 2012 season as the clear No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and it's not close.

Here are some more notes on wide receivers:

- Based on data from Pro Football Reference, a player has reached 110-plus receptions 25 times in NFL history. Over the past five years, Patriots slot receiver Wes Welker has done it four of those 25 times. Welker finished with career highs in yards (1,569) and touchdowns (nine) and his 122 receptions was one shy of his previous career high.

- Rookie receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones made big splashes as rookies despite a lack of an offseason to get acclimated to their respective offenses. Green became the first rookie to finish with at least 1,000 yards since Marques Colstson did in 2006. Jones had 54 receptions for 959 yards and eight touchdowns, but he missed three games and would have likely finished with more than 1,000 yards had he stayed healthy for all 16 games.

- The top rookie receiver in the 2012 NFL Draft is Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon, who has won the Biletnikoff award in back-to-back seasons. During the past two seasons, Blackmon has tallied 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns.

[Related: Take our poll on whether Blackmon or another prospect will be the second pick in this year's draft.]

- After not catching a single pass in 2010, Giants receiver Victor Cruz burst onto the scene in Week 3 and finished the season with 1,536 receiving yards, which ranked him third in the NFL behind Megatron and Welker. In addition, it set a franchise record. Cruz had more receptions (82), yards (1,536) and touchdowns (nine) than Hakeem Nicks (76-1,192-7).

- Green Bay's Jordy Nelson had a huge performance in Super Bowl XLV and seemed poised to break out in 2011 with the possible barrier of too many talented passcatchers in the Packers offense. Like Cruz, Nelson was "snubbed" in not being named initially to the Pro Bowl. Nelson finished the season with 68 receptions for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

- Steelers second-year receiver Antonio Brown, the team's sixth-round pick in 2010, had a breakout season: 69 receptions for 1,108 yards but only two (receiving) touchdowns. If your league awards points for return yards, Brown ranked fifth in the NFL in kick return average (27.3 yards) and 10th in punt return average (10.8).

- Vikings receiver Percy Harvin set career highs in receptions (87) and receiving yards (967) and tied his career high in receiving touchdowns (six). Harvin was much better after the bye (56-633-6) than he was before it (31-334-0). From Week 10 to 17, only Atlanta's Roddy White (57) and Welker (56) had as many receptions as Harvin (56). In addition to his receiving stats, Harvin carried the ball 56 times for 345 yards and two touchdowns as well.

- Oakland's Darrius Heyward-Bey, the first wide receiver drafted in 2009, shattered his previous career highs with 64 receptions for 975 yards and four touchdowns. While there was an inexplicable two-game stretch with no receptions in the middle of the season, DHB finished strong: 21 receptions for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the final three weeks of the season.

- Colts receiver Pierre Garcon had only three games with double-digit fantasy points in 2011, however, none of them were for 10 to 19 fantasy points. Garcon had either 24-plus fantasy points (three times) or eight or less fantasy points (13 times).

- Carolina's Steve Smith had a bounce-back year and finished with 840 yards more than he had last year. Smith finished the season with 79 receptions for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. That said, Smith was much more productive in the eight games before the bye (46-918-4) than he was in the eight games after the bye (33-476-3).

- In the seven games starting with Week 13, Denver's Demaryius Thomas had 75-plus yards in six games including a 204-yard performance in the playoffs. During that seven-game span, Thomas had 35 receptions for 745 yards and four touchdowns.

- Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson was a touchdown-scoring machine. From Weeks 8 to 17, Robinson scored all 11 of his touchdowns this season.

- Bucs receiver Mike Williams followed up his strong rookie season with a disappointing performance. While he had exactly 65 receptions in both seasons, he finished with only 771 yards (964 in 2010) and three touchdowns (11 in 2010) last year.

- Before tearing his ACL and MCL in the third game of the season, Titans receiver Kenny Britt had back-to-back 100-yard games to begin the year. In those two games, Britt totaled 14 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. If there's anything positive with the injury, it happened early in the season, which gives him a better chance of being ready for the start of the 2012 season. That said, it usually takes a full season before a player returns back to pre-injury levels, if he does.

Based on standard scoring (i.e., not point-per-reception (PPR) scoring), here are our 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Andre Johnson, Texans
3. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
5. Wes Welker, Patriots
6. Greg Jennings, Packers
7. Roddy White, Falcons
8. Mike Wallace, Steelers
9. A.J. Green, Bengals
10. Victor Cruz, Giants
11. Julio Jones, Falcons
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers
13. Brandon Marshall, Dolohins
14. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
15. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
16. Miles Austin, Cowboys
17. Percy Harvin, Vikings
18. Steve Smith, Panthers
19. Marques Colston, Saints
20. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
21. Kenny Britt, Titans
22. Antonio Brown, Steelers
23. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
24. Steve Johnson, Bills
25. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
26. Santana Moss, Redskins
27. Brandon Lloyd, Rams
28. Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
29. Denarius Moore, Raiders
30. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
31. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
32. Torrey Smith, Ravens
33. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
34. Reggie Wayne, Colts
35. Santonio Holmes, Jets
36. Pierre Garcon, Colts
37. Mario Manningham, Giants
38. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
39. Lance Moore, Saints
40. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
41. Sidney Rice, Seahawks
42. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
43. Johnny Knox, Bears
44. Eric Decker, Broncos
45. Titus Young, Lions
46. Jabar Gaffney, Redskins
47. Deion Branch, Patriots
48. Danny Amendola, Rams
49. Jacoby Ford, Raiders
50. Robert Meachem, Saints
51. Greg Little, Browns
52. Nate Washington, Titans

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - RBs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

When you begin to discuss fantasy tight ends, the conversation has to start with a pair of second-year players that had the two best years anyone has ever had at that position from a statistical standpoint.

Although they finished sixth and seventh in the NFL in receiving yards, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were two of only three players to finish with 90-plus receptions for 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns along with Lions receiver Calvin Johnson.

Gronkowski finished the season with 1,327 yards and 17 receiving touchdowns, both of which were single-season records for a tight end, on 90 receptions. Graham had more receptions (99) but slightly fewer yards (1,310) and less touchdowns (10).

Before a high-ankle sprain slowed down Gronkowski, both of them continued to roll in the postseason.

In two playoff games, Graham had 12 receptions for 158 yards and three touchdowns. Before suffering the high-ankle sprain, Gronkowski had 15 receptions for 232 yards and three touchdowns in his first two playoff games before Super Bowl XLVI.

How rare is the 90-1,300-10 season that both Graham and Gronkowski had?

Based on data from Pro Football Reference, it has happened 38 times in NFL history. In the previous three seasons, the only two players to reach those levels in the same season were Roddy White (2010) and Larry Fitzgerald (2008).

While Gronkowski and Graham are clearly at the top of the fantasy football tight end class, the position is as talented and productive as ever.

Here are some more notes on tight ends:

- Gronkowski's teammate Aaron Hernandez missed two games, but he still finished with 79 receptions for 910 yards and seven touchdowns. Based on his production of 65 yards per game, Hernandez would have likely given the Pats two 1,000-yard tight ends if he had played all 16 games. In addition, Hernandez was used as a rusher more frequently down the stretch.

- Eagles tight end Brent Celek got off to a slow start after a down season in 2010 but came on strong. In his first six games before the bye, Celek had only 13 receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown. In 10 games after the bye, Celek had 49 receptions for 696 yards and four touchdowns. In his final three games, he did even better: 13 receptions for 290 yards and scored a touchdown in each game.

- After missing a few games early in the season due to his foot, San Diego's Antonio Gates had 56 receptions for 704 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games. Hopefully he'll be able to stay on the field for a full season, but there's a good chance that the foot injury will continue to slow him down in the future considering it's lingered over the past two years.

- Tennessee's Jared Cook has a ton of upside and positive momentum heading into 2012. In his final three games, Cook finished with 21 receptions for 335 yards and a touchdown. (That said, Cook had a strong finish to the 2010 season, but he got off to a slow start in 2011.)

- Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew, the team's other first-round pick in 2009, finished with career highs across the board: 83 receptions, 777 yards and five touchdowns. Pettigrew is a solid low-end TE1, but he is even better in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues than those with standard scoring.

- Solid but inconsistent, Jets tight end Dustin Keller finished with 65 receptions for 815 yards and five touchdowns. In the first three weeks this season, he had 16 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns. In Weeks 2 to 4 in 2010, Keller had 17 receptions for 241 yards and five touchdowns. Stated another way: Keller had 490 yards and seven TDs in those six games and only 1,012 yards and three TDs in the other 26 games over the past two years.

- Speaking of inconsistency, Packers tight end Jermichael Finley, who is due to become a free agent this offseason, had three fantasy points or less in five games this season. Although he set a career high in touchdowns (eight), he had his lowest yards-per-game average (47.9) since his rookie season.

- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez, who has 1,149 career receptions for 13,338 yards, has decided to play another season, which makes sense considering how productive he was. Gonzalez finished with 80 receptions for 875 yards and seven touchdowns in 2011.

- Dallas tight end Jason Witten set five-year lows in both receptions (79) and yards (942), which is partly due to the production of the Cowboys top three receivers: Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson.

Here are our 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings (using standard scoring -- i.e., not PPR scoring):

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
3. Jason Witten, Cowboys
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers
6. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
7. Jermichael Finley, Packers
8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
9. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
10. Fred Davis, Redskins
11. Dallas Clark, Colts
12. Owen Daniels, Texans
13. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
14. Brent Celek, Eagles
15. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
16. Dustin Keller, Jets
17. Jared Cook, Titans
18. Greg Olsen, Panthers
19. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
20. Heath Miller, Steelers
21. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
23. Scott Chandler, Bills
24. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
25. Evan Moore, Browns
26. Ed Dickson, Ravens

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - RBs - WRs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Not only did Travis Beckum tear his ACL in Super Bowl XVLI, so did Giants teammate Jake Ballard.

On Super Bowl Sunday, it was believed that Ballard had suffered only a torn meniscus, but further tests have revealed that Ballard has a torn ACL as well, per Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star-Ledger.

Ballard had a nice season with 38 receptions for 604 yards and four touchdowns and he led all tight ends in yards per reception (15.9).

Late last month, I released my first 2012 NFL mock draft and I had the Giants picking Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen, the John Mackey award winner, in the first round.

While one of the updates I need to make to the second iteration of my mock draft will be dropping the Giants from 31st overall to 32nd overall, there is a good chance I will still project a tight end to them in the first round.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The past several months have not gone well for Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno.

Moreno, one of the team's first-round picks in 2009, is recovering from ACL surgery, but he had only 37 carries in seven games before sustaining the injury.

Add a DUI arrest last week to the list of woes for Moreno, who reported has a personalized license plate that says "SAUCED," according to KDVR-31 in Denver (via Lindsay Jones of the Denver Post).

"We take the incident involving Knowshon Moreno very seriously, and are thoroughly reviewing this matter," the team said in a statement (via Jones). "Our organization will continue to gather information and closely monitor this issue while the legal process takes it course."

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 08:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

When healthy, Raiders running back Darren McFadden is one of the league's elite running backs.

Excluding his most recent game (two carries in Week 7), McFadden has carried the ball 334 times for 1,767 yards and 11 touchdowns in 19 games combined over the past two seasons. During that span, he added another 65 receptions for 661 yards and four touchdowns.

In other words, McFadden's 2,428 yards from scrimmage (YFS) averages out to 127.79 YFS per game in those 19 games.

To put that into perspective, Baltimore's Ray Rice, who played in all 16 games in the regular season, led the NFL in YFS (2,068), which is a per-game average of 129.25.

While McFadden is still under contract and teammate Michael Bush is set to become a free agent, the franchise is reportedly willing to listen to offers for McFadden (and possibly re-sign Bush). ESPN's John Clayton tweeted yesterday, "Once the Raiders go back to a zone blocking scheme, they have to decide whether to re-sign Michael Bush or trade Darren McFadden."

As we do every Friday, we respond to a weekly fantasy football question regarding the 2012 season.

Here is this week's roundtable topic: Which AFC West running back will have a better 2012 season: Darren McFadden or Ryan Mathews?

Kevin (follow on Twitter):

For me, there is not a huge difference between these particular backs. If you could guarantee me that both running backs would stay healthy for a full 16-game season, which neither have done yet in their careers, I would go with McFadden. While McFadden is in the top 3-4 backs in terms of talent, I expect Mathews to be more durable during the 2012 season and take another step forward in his development. During a five-game span from Weeks 12 to 16, Mathews rushed for 511 yards, averaged 5.5 yards per carry and had three 100-yard games. Only two other running backs had more rushing yards during that span (Reggie Bush and Marshawn Lynch). Both of these guys will right next to each other in my 2012 running back rankings, which are coming out in the next couple of days.

John (follow on Twitter):

Both are solid options, but I'd go with Darren McFadden. Assuming he can stay healthy, the Raiders rushing attack was pretty formidable this past year. Even with Michael Bush, Oakland was very successful running the ball, finishing seventh in the league. This is indicative of a good O-line, and when you get a talent like McFadden behind a good line, good things are going to happen. Bush will likely steal some carries from McFadden, but that's no different than Mathews' situation with Mike Tolbert. The Chargers offense should be good, but that was true going into this year as well, and they were disappointing, with a rushing attack that was middle of the pack. I think Mathews will have a good season, but the Chargers will likely be more pass-oriented, where the Raiders will likely be more reliant on McFadden and the running game. Overall, if McFadden can stay healthy all year, I like him to have a breakout year, and possibly crack the top 5 RBs in terms of fantasy production.

Sean (follow on Twitter):

This is a very tough question, as I rank these players about the same. San Diego is not expected to sign Mike Tolbert, so that will be huge for Mathews value. Oakland is in the same predicament with Michael Bush, who many feel will not be back in Oakland either. Both players have injury concerns, so for me it comes down to the talent around them. San Diego is going to have more opportunities than the Raiders because offensively they are better at every position. When teams gear up to play the Raiders, stopping Run DMC is priority No. 1. Ryan Mathews isn't the No. 1 focus for defenses when you play the Chargers. That is Phillip Rivers.

This is real close, but as of right now with no Tolbert/Bush in the picture I am leaning towards Mathews. I think Mathews is going to jump into that top tier kind of RB this year. That being said, I am not targeting either one of these guys with my first round pick in a 12-team league. These are both second rounders for me.

Dan (follow on Twitter):

This will be quite the battle for the AFC West rushing crown, between Ryan Mathews and Darren McFadden. Mathews posted an excellent sophomore year posting 1,500-plus yards rushing and receiving with six TDs. McFadden was unlucky with the injury bug, only playing in seven games while posting 900 yards rushing and receiving and 5 TDs. McFadden has not been able to play more than 13 games in any season of his career, but he has the better offensive line and the Raiders offense flows through the rushing game unlike the Chargers. This is the year that McFadden stays on the field and posts top 5 running back numbers.

Related: Our 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, 1.0

Previous Fantasy Football Friday Posts:
- Jan. 27: Who should be the 2nd WR selected in Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 20: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 13: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?
- Jan. 6: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham?

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 05:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Per ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Colts (for now) quarterback Peyton Manning has been medically cleared to resume his NFL career.

The clearance comes from two doctors: Dr. Robert Watkins, who performed Manning's most recent surgery, and Dr. Hank Feuer, the team's neurosurgeon.

In addition, Feuer has said of Manning (according to Mortensen's source): "If you were my own son, I'd tell (you) to go play."

At this point, however, it comes down to the nerve regeneration to Manning's arm allowing him to throw the ball as well as he would expect rather than with safety. Mortensen's source tells him, "It's not a safety issue; it's a performance issue."

The Colts owe a $28 million bonus to Manning on March 8th, which is five days before the NFL league year (and free agency) begins on March 13th. While it has been widely expected that the Colts would move on and release Manning, this news puts a bit more pressure on the organization.

Either way, it is also widely expected that the Colts will select Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in this year's draft. [See our NFL Mock Draft Database.]

That said, I'd be surprised if Manning is still on the Colts' active roster on March 9th.

[Update/Response: Colts owner Jim Irsay tweeted, "Peyton has not passed our physical nor has he been cleared to play for The Indianapolis Colts. Team statement coming on Friday."]

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Between the two of them, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and Giants quarterback Eli Manning threw for a total of 10,168 yards in the regular season.

On Sunday, the two quarterbacks will meet in a rematch of Super Bowl XLII.

Although that was the season that Brady set the single-season record for most passing touchdowns (50), the two teams combined for only 31 points in Super Bowl XLII and it was only 7-3 heading into the fourth quarter. Both Brady and Manning threw for 266 yards or less.

Fast forward a few years, will the offensive output be similar to what we (most) expect?

Based on the prop bets at Sportsbook.com, the over-under for Brady and Manning are 320.5 and 310.5 passing yards, respectively.

Who will throw for more yards in Super Bowl XLVI?

- Related: SB46 Fantasy Ranks - SB46 Prediction(s) - SB46 Winner Poll - Past SB Results - SB Squares

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

If you're in a fantasy league for the playoffs, hopefully you picked plenty of Patriots and/or Giants players as many playoff leagues limit postseason transactions.

Some leagues, such as ESPN's Gridiron Challenge, does not allow for roster changes after the Championship games.

In any event, here are our rankings for Super Bowl XLVI:

Quarterbacks:

1. Tom Brady, Patriots: Brady had a poor performance last week, but the Giants are not the Ravens. Provided New England limits the G-Men's pass rush, New York's defensive strength, Brady should bounce back with a big performance against a shaky Giants secondary.

1a. Eli Manning, Giants: For me, there is only a marginal difference between these two QBs. If your league uses a salary cap to select players, I would prefer the cheaper option (likely Manning). After throwing for more than 300 yards vs. the Niners and posting an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the past four games, Manning is definitely playing at an "elite" level.

Running Backs:

1. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: Of the remaining running backs, Bradshaw has the most potential to have a big game. The Patriots pass defense leaves much to be desired, but they have allowed only two 100-yard rushers this season: Roy Helu (126 yards) and Reggie Bush (113 yards).

2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots: The Law Firm won't get you a ton of yardage in most weeks. That said, he's going to get the goal-line work (when Brady is not keeping it himself). With his ability to protect the football, I wouldn't be surprised if Green-Ellis gets a similar workload as last week (15 carries).

3. Brandon Jacobs, Giants: His postseason workload (and production) is heading in the wrong direction: 14 carries for 92 yards, nine carries for 22 yards (and a TD) and five carries for 13 yards. Meanwhile, Bradshaw had a postseason-high 20 carries last week.

4. Danny Woodhead, Patriots: If Woodhead has a bigger game than expected, it would likely mean that he has a bunch of receptions out of the backfield. That said, he has one reception for seven yards in the postseason.

Wide Receivers:

1. Hakeem Nicks, Giants: In their regular-season matchup against the Patriots, Nicks was inactive. While he only had five receptions for 55 yards last week, Nicks has 18 receptions for 335 yards and four touchdowns this postseason.

2. Wes Welker, Patriots: Welker has three straight games with six receptions and 51-55 yards. Welker had one of his best performances (nine receptions for 136 yards) of the season in his first matchup against the Giants.

3. Victor Cruz, Giants: Cruz had his best game of the playoffs last week with 10 receptions for 142 yards although he has yet to score a touchdown this postseason. Cruz had six receptions for 91 yards in his regular-season matchup against the Patriots.

4. Mario Manningham, Giants: Manningham has scored a touchdown in all three of the Giants playoff games this year. In his first matchup against the Patriots, he had three receptions for 33 yards and a score.

5. Deion Branch, Patriots: Branch has been hit or miss in his two postseason games and in the regular season. In his 17 games (counting playoffs) this season, Branch has nine or more fantasy points in eight games. He has seven games with three fantasy points or less.

Tight Ends:

1. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: In his past six games, Hernandez is averaging more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game. He has 36 receptions for 508 yards and three touchdowns plus 12 carries for 113 yards during that span.

2. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: If it weren't for his high-ankle sprain, Gronkowski would be ranked No. 1 here. Although he is expected to play, I wonder how much the injury will slow him down and Hernandez is one of top five fantasy tight ends in the league.

3. Jake Ballard, Giants: In the regular season, Ballard had one of his best games of the season against the Patriots. He finished the game with four receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown.

4. Travis Beckum, Giants: Beckum has more receptions in the playoffs (seven) than he had in the regular season (five). That said, he has only 45 yards and no touchdowns.

Our initial 2012 fantasy football rankings will be available by Monday, January 30th. Of course, they will be subject to frequent change up to the start of the 2012 season, but our plan will be to update them again about a week or so after the start of NFL free agency (March 13th), after the NFL Draft (late April) and frequently starting in July.

To keep track of our updates, follow me on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Super Bowl XLVI: Our predictions - Poll - Past Results - MVPs - Super Bowl Squares

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 04:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Going into the 2012 season, Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in football. He closed the season with four straight 100-yard games (although three of them were 200-yard games).

The debate comes into play when we are looking at who should be ranked second at the position.

Based on 2011 production, three of the top six receivers are not a huge surprise: Johnson, Wes Welker and Larry Fitzgerald. However, the other three were much less likely to finish in the top six based on preseason expectations and rankings.

Green Bay's Jordy Nelson finished second, New York's Victor Cruz finished fourth and Carolina's Steve Smith finished sixth.

Here is this week's roundtable topic: Using standard scoring (i.e., not PPR), who should be 2nd WR selected in 2012 fantasy football drafts?

Kevin (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

It is nearly impossible to predict injuries and many of our fantasy teams get wrecked from the injuries we suffer throughout any given season. A pair of hamstring injuries ruined Andre Johnson's fantasy production last year. Before his (first) hamstring injury, Johnson had 21 receptions for 316 yards and two touchdowns in the first three games of the season. The fact that he had 13 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games reminds us that he is as talented as any other receiver not named Calvin. From 2007 to 2010, Johnson averaged more than 90 receiving yards per game every year. Provided he (and quarterback Matt Schaub) stays healthy next year, Johnson should put up 1,300-1,500 yards in 2012.

John (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

After Calvin Johnson, the top receiver I would take in 2012 would be Andre Johnson. Prior to Calvin's breakout season, Andre Johnson was generally regarded as the best receiver in football (with a short list of other possibilities like Larry Fitz or Roddy White.) The Texans offense has been heading in the right direction the last few years, with Arian Foster emerging as probably the best back in the league, which obviously helps open up the passing game. Schaub to Johnson was becoming a pretty lethal combo, but injuries to both players this year clearly hurt their production. Still, if both players can manage to stay healthy all year, Johnson is a big, strong receiver with great hands and he has a top-tier quarterback throwing to him. The Texans can score a lot of points, so I expect a big year out of Schaub, with Johnson being the main beneficiary. Because of this, I'd slot Andre Johnson as the number two most valuable fantasy receiver to start 2012.

Sean (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

This year it is going to be so hard to pick the No. 2 WR, I think you are almost better off going in another direction. I'd honestly consider drafting both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham before the next WR (after Megatron).

The No. 2 WR will probably be taken around the 10th-12th pick in most drafts, so for arguments sake let's say you have the 10th pick. You only have to wait four more picks until you pick again. Is there a real difference between Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz? Not really. If you pass on a WR in both rounds, who do you think will be available in Rounds 3/4 to round out your team? The WRs you are looking at in 3rd/4th will be guys like Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, AJ Green, etc.

I think this is the year to pass on WRs early and draft them later on. My strategy for this pick would be to draft one of the three elite QBs. Hope that one of the TE's falls to be in the 2nd. Then go WR/RB or WR/WR in rounds 3&4, and then just load up on RB's the rest of the draft. There is going to be plenty of players like Marshawn Lynch and Darren Sproles that come out of no where next season. If you are putting up 50 points a week with your QB/TE combo, and your second tier of WRs are the guys listed in the paragraph above, then you are going to be hard to beat. Could you see Vincent Jackson being the #2 WR next year? How about Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt or AJ Green? They all have the talent to take it to the next level.

My answer is simple. I am not drafting one. I am going elsewhere with my pick. If I had to bet money on who I thought would go No. 2 in most drafts though, I'd put my money on Andre Johnson. Johnson out of all the other WRs has the tools, and is in a great situation where he is going to get the majority of the balls thrown to him.

Dan (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

If I am picking the number 2 wide receiver, I am still going with Andre Johnson of the Texans. Although he was limited to seven games, Johnson had 33 catches for an average of 14.9 yard per reception and two TDs. Johnson has been one of the league's most consistent talents, and will have a bounce-back year.

Steve: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

If you've followed my writing here, you'll have noticed that I'm a big fan of consistency and repeatability. Therefore, I would pick Larry Fitzgerald as he has been a machine for the past few years, despite the revolving door at QB in Arizona. I'm a little concerned about the dropoff in catches this past year (down from 90 to 80), but as the Cardinals get better this year so will Fitzgerald's numbers. His 1,400 yards are only a couple hundred behind Johnson and touchdowns tend to a be a feast-or-famine sort of stat for wide receivers. The other top yardage receivers (Victor Cruz, Wes Welker) have a lot of company on their team's receiving corps, and with only one football to go around, I'll take the guy with the least competion.

Previous Fantasy Football Friday Posts:
- Jan. 20: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 13: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?
- Jan. 6: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham?

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Seahawks wide receiver Sidney Rice was never 100 percent at any point last season.

After signing a big free-agent deal last offseason, Rice missed the first two games of the season with a torn labrum and the final five games with a concussion, which landed him on injured reserve.

According to Tom Pelissero of ESPN1500.com (via Pro Football Talk), Rice had surgery on both of his shoulders this offseason.

Over the past two years, Rice has had three concussions, operations on both shoulders and hip surgery before the start of the 2010 season.

Two years removed from his breakout season (2009) of 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns, Rice has 49 receptions for 764 yards and four touchdowns in 15 games over the past two years combined.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 08:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Although we still have three games left in the 2011 NFL season, it's never too early to look ahead to the next season.

Even if you made it to your league's championship game and it was played in Week 16, nearly a full month has passed since your season ended.

Over the next week or so, we will release our initial 2012 fantasy football rankings. The plan is to update them after the start of the NFL free-agency period and then again after the 2012 NFL Draft. When July rolls around, they will be updated more frequently and we plan on creating point-per-reception (PPR) rankings as well as rankings for keeper leagues.

For now, we will take a look at what you should do if you had the first overall pick and drafted today.

Let's be clear about one thing: getting the first overall (or your first-round) pick won't win you a championship. Getting it wrong, however, may lose it for you though.

Using standard scoring, who should be the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 fantasy football drafts?

John (follow on Twitter): Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

If next year's draft were to be held today, there are three players I would struggle with to decide who should be number one overall: Arian Foster, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Generally, running backs dominate the first round, and there are plenty of great ones out there. Guys like Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and MJD are all first-round picks. However, Brees and Rodgers (even more than Brady) have separated themselves from the rest of the pack when it comes to putting up fantasy numbers, and having one of these studs is a significant advantage over other strong quarterback choices like Tony Romo or Eli Manning. Because of this discrepancy between a "good" QB option and one of these elite guys, I would strongly consider taking one of the quarterbacks at number one overall. However, if I had to choose today, I think I would go with Arian Foster. For the second year in a row, Foster was an absolute fantasy beast. He is the most consistent part of the Texans' offense as both a running back as well as a receiver. Had he been healthy all year, he likely would have challenged for his second rushing title in two years. Foster is the best in the game, and my choice for top pick in fantasy next year.

Sean (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

The player I want was my No. 1 rated RB last year and that is Ray Rice. Rice was first in the NFL in total yards (2,068) and second in totals TDs (15). I think Rice is the best RB in football, and is a lock for at least top 5 this next season. The reasoning behind my Rice pick comes down to who I think will be available to me at the end of the 2nd round. Drafting Aaron Rodgers is awfully tempting. I am going to get a guy who is going to get me 4,000+ yards and 40 TD easy, but there are so many talented QBs in the league that I will be happy with a Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton at the end of the 2nd round. Even someone like Tom Brady could slip. I think the combo of Rice/Stafford is better then Rodgers/Reggie Bush. That is if I went with a QB in rounds 2/3. I could get a Jimmy Graham/Roddy White there and grab someone like Romo with my back-to-backs the next time around. Romo in the 5th, is going to be better than Jonathan Stewart (believe me, you don't want that headache).

Dan (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

If I land the number one pick in a fantasy draft, PPR or not, I am taking Ray Rice. Rice was the only running back to compile 2000 yards from scrimmage, and also scored 15 touchdowns. Arian Foster has Ben Tate and Andre Johnson as his foils, Maurice Jones-Drew will face 10-man fronts, and Chris Johnson is not to be trusted. I want the sure thing with the number one pick, and the Ravens offense goes as Rice goes.

Steve: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

The decision on the number 1 overall pick is really a convergence of styles. To use a baseball analagy, do you swing for the fences or try to win with singles? - I'm a fan of hitting singles, which means I want a player with a high level of consistency and ability to out-produce the "average player" or his peer group on a weekly basis. Traditional draft philosphy has put a premium on running backs, but given the implementation of platoons and near every season an injury (Jamaal Charles looks great for one game) or general underperformance effectively killing the fantasy season of some running backs and thus their owners (Yes - I'm still bitter at Chris Johnson). Therefore, I want a quarterback and there are really only three options: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady. I think you'll be fine with either, but my preference is Drew Brees because Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham give the Saints the best redzone targets of any of the three team's receiving corps. If you want to try for the home run, go and draft a running back - maybe AP comes back from the knee injury the same or Ben Tate doesn't take too many carries from Arian Foster, but in hindsight you may be really wishing you didn't have to decide between Mark Sanchez or Matt Hasselbeck at QB.

Kevin (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

For me, the top three picks in 2012 should be the following three players (not particularly in order): Baltimore's Ray Rice, Houston's Arian Foster and Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. At this point, however, I think that would be my order, but it's close between Rice and Foster. No other player had more yards from scrimmage than Foster (4,061) and Rice (3,844) over the past two seasons. Not only did Rice lead in yards from scrimmage this season (partly due to Foster missing a couple of games), but he scored 15 touchdowns, which is nearly twice his previous high of eight (in 2009). Even though Foster should get a heavy workload either way, he has a talented backup in Ben Tate, who just missed rushing for 1,000 yards this season. It's so close between the top two, but I'd give the edge to Rice.

Related: Fantasy Rankings for the Championship-Game Round: QBs - RBs - WRs - TEs

Championship Games: AFC: Prediction - Past Results | NFC: Prediction - Past Results

Shameless Plug: Follow EDSFootball.com on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)