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Not only did Drew Brees become the first player to have two 5,000-yard seasons, but this time he broke Dan Marino's previous single-season record of 5,084 passing yards.

In fact, he shattered it.

The Saints quarterback threw for 5,476 as he broke the record in his 15th game of the season. Brees broke a number of other records this year including completions (468), completion percentage (71.2 percent) and 300-yard games (13).

In his two postseason games this year, Brees threw the second- and third-most yards ever in a playoff game after Cleveland's Bernie Kosar. Brees completed 73 of 106 passes for 928 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions in those two games.

If you include the playoffs, Brees threw for 6,404 yards, 53 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 18 games this year.

That said, he's unlikely to win the league's MVP award.

In my predictions of postseason awards a month ago, I thought Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers would win the MVP and Brees would win the Offensive Player of the Year award, which is the way it turned out.

It made sense.

Brees was more prolific, Rodgers was more efficient.

Rodgers was nearly perfect this season.

Although 15 quarterbacks threw more pass attempts than Rodgers (502), no quarterback had more fantasy points. Rodgers set the NFL record for passer rating (122.5) and broke the franchise record for passing touchdowns (45) while throwing a career low of six interceptions as a starter.

Here are some more notes on quarterbacks:

- As Rodgers sat out, Packers backup quarterback Matt Flynn set the franchise record with 480 passing yards and six touchdowns against the Lions in the regular-season finale. With the Dolphins naming Joe Philbin, who was the Packers offensive coordinator as their new head coach, the Flynn-to-Miami speculation has begun for the soon-to-be free-agent signalcaller.

- Brees wasn't the only 5,000-yard passer this season. New England's Tom Brady (5,235) and Detroit's Matthew Stafford (5,038) both reached the 5,000-yard milestone and New York's Eli Manning, Super Bowl XLVI MVP, just missed it by 67 yards.

- After playing only 13 games in his first two seasons, Stafford played a full 16-game season, was named AP Comeback Player of the Year and led the Lions to their first playoff appearance since the 1999 season. Perhaps with better health for their running backs (Mikel LeShoure, Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, etc.) next year, Stafford will throw a few less times. That said, he threw a league-high 663 times, which is the third-highest in league history after Drew Bledsoe (691 in 1994) and Peyton Manning (679 in 2010).

- One of the biggest wildcards going into the 2012 season will be the status/health of Peyton Manning, who missed the entire season with his neck injury. Manning is due a $28 million roster bonus on March 8th. Not only are the Colts are virtually guaranteed of drafting Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in this year's draft, they are expected to release Manning as well.

- Panthers quarterback Cam Newton had a record-setting rookie campaign and ran away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award (see past winners). Not only did Newton break the record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (14), he became the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000-plus yards (4,051) and run for 700-plus yards (706).

- Similar to Newton as a dual-threat quarterback, Philadelpia's Michael Vick had a disappointing season. Not only did Vick miss three games and fail to reach 4,000 total yards (3,303 passing yards and 589 rushing yards), but he ran for only one touchdowns. In 2010, Vick ran for nine touchdowns. With his size and style of play, Vick will always have a higher-than-average risk of injury (missing games), but fantasy owners have the potential to reap huge returns on a per-game basis.

- Although he did not become the team's starting quarterback until Week 7, Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow had the second-most rush attempts (122) and rushing yards (660) at the quarterback position this year. Counting his two postseason starts, however, Tebow threw for 200-plus yards only three times and had less than 100 passing yards in two starts.

- Tampa's Josh Freeman regressed considerably in his third season. After posting a 25:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2010, Freeman threw only 16 touchdowns and a league-worst 22 interceptions.

- Rams quarterback Sam Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, missed six games last year, but he struggled when he was on the field. Bradford's completion percentage dropped from 60.0 percent in 2010 to 53.5 percent in 2011 and he threw only six touchdowns in the 10 games he played last year. While the Rams will likely lose Brandon Lloyd via free agency, many mock drafts have the Rams taking Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon, the back-to-back Biletnikoff winner.

- Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan threw a few less passes in 2011 (566) than he did in 2010 (571), but he set career highs in passing yards (4,177) and touchdowns (29). Although Ryan threw more interceptions this year than last, he had a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio after the bye and it's expected that the Falcons will transition to becoming more of a passing offense.

Here are our 2012 fantasy football quarterback rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Cam Newton, Panthers
5. Matthew Stafford, Lions
6. Tony Romo, Cowboys
7. Philip Rivers, Chargers
8. Eli Manning, Giants
9. Michael Vick, Eagles
10. Matt Schaub, Texans
11. Matt Ryan, Falcons
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
13. Tim Tebow, Broncos
14. Peyton Manning, Colts (soon-to-be free agent?)
15. Andy Dalton, Bengals
16. Jay Cutler, Bears
17. Joe Flacco, Ravens
18. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
20. Carson Palmer, Raiders
21. Matt Moore, Dolphins
22. Mark Sanchez, Jets
23. Alex Smith, 49ers
24. Matt Cassel, Chiefs
25. Sam Bradford, Rams

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: RBs - WRs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

The Jaguars had the league's worst-ranked offense, which makes what running back Maurice Jones-Drew did all that more impressive.

Jacksonville averaged only 259.3 yards per game of total offense, but that was primarily due to their deficiencies in the passing game. The Jaguars averaged only 136.2 passing yards per game in 2011.

Despite having to face many eight-men fronts, Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing with 1,606 yards. And perhaps more impressively, he became the first running back in league history to rush for at least 80 yards in 15 of 16 games.

Along with Atlanta's Michael Turner, MJD was one of only two running backs to go over 300 carries. MJD had a league-high 343 carries, which is the fourth-most over the past five seasons.

Here are some more notes on running backs:

- Ravens running back Ray Rice set career highs in rushing yards (1,364) and receiving yards (704) plus he scored a total of 15 touchdowns, which shatters his previous career high of eight. Rice has three straight seasons with 1,200-plus rushing yards and 500-plus receiving yards and 60-plus receptions.

- Broncos running back Willis McGahee, who turned 30 in October, was one yard shy of 1,200 yards for the third time in his career and the first time since 2007. That said, he had a career low in rushing touchdowns (four) last year.

- Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch finished the season with 1,204 rushing yards and 212 receiving yards with 13 total touchdowns last year. He was particularly tough from Week 9 on. He rushed for 100-plus yards six times in his final nine games including against the 49ers, the league's top-ranked run defense.

- In the 11 games he finished, Bears running back Matt Forte was an absolute stud. During those 11 games, he had 985 rushing yards and 490 receiving yards on 52 receptions and he was on pace for 2,145 yards from scrimmage for the season.

- Despite missing three games, Houston's Arian Foster carried the ball 278 times for 1,224 yards and 10 touchdowns and had 53 receptions for 617 yards. Counting the postseason, Foster had nine 100-yard rushing games and three 100-yard receiving games in 15 games last year. Through the postseason, Foster has 656 carries for 3,125 yards and 29 touchdowns plus 127 receptions for 1,272 yards and four touchdowns in 31 games over the past two seasons.

- Foster's teammate Ben Tate finished with 942 rushing yards and 98 receiving yards. Tate rushed for 100-plus yards four times last year.

- Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy, the Eagles' second-round pick in 2009, set career highs in carries (273), rushing yards (1,309) and rushing touchdowns (17). McCoy sat out Week 17, but he scored at least one touchdown in every game he played except for Weeks 11 and 16.

- Miami's Reggie Bush nearly doubled his previous career high with 1,086 rushing yards on 216 carries. Like McCoy, Bush sat out Week 17. Before that, Bush rushed for 100-plus yards in four straight games and no running back had more rushing yards than Bush (519) during that four-game span.

- From Weeks 7 to 12, no running back had more rushing yards than Cowboys rookie DeMarco Murray (761). (Rams running back Steven Jackson (593) had the second most during that span.)

- Three elite running backs are coming off torn ACLs: Minnesota's Adrian Peterson, Kansas City's Jamaal Charles and Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendenhall. Of the three, Charles' injury happened the earliest (Week 2), which gives him the best chance to be ready for opening day.

- Jets running back Shonn Greene set career highs across the board: carries (253), rushing yards (1,054) and touchdowns (six) in addition to receptions (30) and receiving yards (211). That said, Greene was mostly mediocre aside from a two-game span in Weeks 13/14: 46 carries for 217 yards and four TDs plus six receptions for 84 yards.

- Speaking of mediocre, Titans running back Chris Johnson had a lackluster season with the exception of a four-game span. Johnson rushed for a total of 486 yards and had three of his four 100-yard games of the season during that stretch. In the other 12 games, however, Johnson had 177 carries for 561 yards (3.17 yards per carry) and one rushing touchdown.

- For the third straight season, Bengals running back Cedric Benson has rushed for more than 1,000 yards. That said, only three backs have had more carries than Benson (895) over the past three seasons. Both Brendan Donahue (see his mock) and I (see my mock) have the Bengals using one of their two first-round picks on a running back.

- In the final six games of the season, the Redskins had five 100-yard rushing games by rookie running backs. Roy Helu, their fourth-round pick, had three of them and Evan Royster, a sixth-round pick, had two of them.

- Only four players had more rushing touchdowns than New England's BenJarvus Green-Ellis (11). Of the players with double-digit rushing touchdowns, The Law Firm had the fewest rushing yards (667), by far.

Based on standard scoring (i.e., not point-per-reception (PPR) scoring), here are our 2012 fantasy football running backs rankings:

1. Ray Rice, Ravens
2. Arian Foster, Texans
3. LeSean McCoy, Eagles
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
5. Matt Forte, Bears
6. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks
7. Ryan Mathews, Chargers
8. Darren McFadden, Raiders
9. Chris Johnson, Titans
10. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
11. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
12. Steven Jackson, Rams
13. Frank Gore, 49ers
14. Michael Turner, Falcons
15. Fred Jackson, Bills
16. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
17. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants
18. Michael Bush, Raiders
19. Darren Sproles, Saints
20. Reggie Bush, Dolphins
21. Roy Helu, Redskins
22. Willis McGahee, Broncos
23. Shonn Greene, Jets
24. Beanie Wells, Cardinals
25. Mark Ingram, Saints
26. C.J. Spiller, Bills
27. LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
28. Cedric Benson, Bengals
29. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers
30. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
31. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
32. Peyton Hillis, Browns
33. Ben Tate, Texans
34. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots
35. Jahvid Best, Lions
36. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
37. Pierre Thomas, Saints
38. Kevin Smith, Lions
39. Toby Gerhart, Vikings
40. Donald Brown, Colts
41. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
42. Ryan Williams, Cardinals

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - WRs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Detroit's Calvin Johnson had some (very) good seasons going into the 2011 season.

With elite size (6-5, 235 pounds) and athleticism, however, Megatron seemed capable of even more, especially with improved quarterback play. Not only did Matthew Stafford, the top overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, stay healthy for 16 games, he is one of only (now) four quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for 5,000-plus yards.

Meanwhile, Johnson blew away his previous career highs. In 2011 (previous highs in parenthesis), Johnson had 96 receptions (78) for 1,681 yards (1,331) and 16 touchdowns (12).

Only six players in NFL history had more receiving yards in a season.

Before 2011, the last player(s) to finish with 1,600 yards in a season were Torry Holt and Randy Moss back in 2003. Plus, Moss and Johnson were the only two receivers to have at least 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns in the same season.

Johnson had a little bit of dryspell from Weeks 10 to 14 -- no 100-yard games and only one touchdown in five games.

In his next (and final) four games counting the Lions' playoff loss, however, Megatron had three 200-yard games. During that four-game span, he had 36 receptions for 771 yards and six touchdowns!

Hands down, he goes into 2012 season as the clear No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and it's not close.

Here are some more notes on wide receivers:

- Based on data from Pro Football Reference, a player has reached 110-plus receptions 25 times in NFL history. Over the past five years, Patriots slot receiver Wes Welker has done it four of those 25 times. Welker finished with career highs in yards (1,569) and touchdowns (nine) and his 122 receptions was one shy of his previous career high.

- Rookie receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones made big splashes as rookies despite a lack of an offseason to get acclimated to their respective offenses. Green became the first rookie to finish with at least 1,000 yards since Marques Colstson did in 2006. Jones had 54 receptions for 959 yards and eight touchdowns, but he missed three games and would have likely finished with more than 1,000 yards had he stayed healthy for all 16 games.

- The top rookie receiver in the 2012 NFL Draft is Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon, who has won the Biletnikoff award in back-to-back seasons. During the past two seasons, Blackmon has tallied 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns.

[Related: Take our poll on whether Blackmon or another prospect will be the second pick in this year's draft.]

- After not catching a single pass in 2010, Giants receiver Victor Cruz burst onto the scene in Week 3 and finished the season with 1,536 receiving yards, which ranked him third in the NFL behind Megatron and Welker. In addition, it set a franchise record. Cruz had more receptions (82), yards (1,536) and touchdowns (nine) than Hakeem Nicks (76-1,192-7).

- Green Bay's Jordy Nelson had a huge performance in Super Bowl XLV and seemed poised to break out in 2011 with the possible barrier of too many talented passcatchers in the Packers offense. Like Cruz, Nelson was "snubbed" in not being named initially to the Pro Bowl. Nelson finished the season with 68 receptions for 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns.

- Steelers second-year receiver Antonio Brown, the team's sixth-round pick in 2010, had a breakout season: 69 receptions for 1,108 yards but only two (receiving) touchdowns. If your league awards points for return yards, Brown ranked fifth in the NFL in kick return average (27.3 yards) and 10th in punt return average (10.8).

- Vikings receiver Percy Harvin set career highs in receptions (87) and receiving yards (967) and tied his career high in receiving touchdowns (six). Harvin was much better after the bye (56-633-6) than he was before it (31-334-0). From Week 10 to 17, only Atlanta's Roddy White (57) and Welker (56) had as many receptions as Harvin (56). In addition to his receiving stats, Harvin carried the ball 56 times for 345 yards and two touchdowns as well.

- Oakland's Darrius Heyward-Bey, the first wide receiver drafted in 2009, shattered his previous career highs with 64 receptions for 975 yards and four touchdowns. While there was an inexplicable two-game stretch with no receptions in the middle of the season, DHB finished strong: 21 receptions for 355 yards and two touchdowns in the final three weeks of the season.

- Colts receiver Pierre Garcon had only three games with double-digit fantasy points in 2011, however, none of them were for 10 to 19 fantasy points. Garcon had either 24-plus fantasy points (three times) or eight or less fantasy points (13 times).

- Carolina's Steve Smith had a bounce-back year and finished with 840 yards more than he had last year. Smith finished the season with 79 receptions for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. That said, Smith was much more productive in the eight games before the bye (46-918-4) than he was in the eight games after the bye (33-476-3).

- In the seven games starting with Week 13, Denver's Demaryius Thomas had 75-plus yards in six games including a 204-yard performance in the playoffs. During that seven-game span, Thomas had 35 receptions for 745 yards and four touchdowns.

- Cowboys receiver Laurent Robinson was a touchdown-scoring machine. From Weeks 8 to 17, Robinson scored all 11 of his touchdowns this season.

- Bucs receiver Mike Williams followed up his strong rookie season with a disappointing performance. While he had exactly 65 receptions in both seasons, he finished with only 771 yards (964 in 2010) and three touchdowns (11 in 2010) last year.

- Before tearing his ACL and MCL in the third game of the season, Titans receiver Kenny Britt had back-to-back 100-yard games to begin the year. In those two games, Britt totaled 14 receptions for 271 yards and three touchdowns. If there's anything positive with the injury, it happened early in the season, which gives him a better chance of being ready for the start of the 2012 season. That said, it usually takes a full season before a player returns back to pre-injury levels, if he does.

Based on standard scoring (i.e., not point-per-reception (PPR) scoring), here are our 2012 fantasy football wide receiver rankings:

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions
2. Andre Johnson, Texans
3. Hakeem Nicks, Giants
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
5. Wes Welker, Patriots
6. Greg Jennings, Packers
7. Roddy White, Falcons
8. Mike Wallace, Steelers
9. A.J. Green, Bengals
10. Victor Cruz, Giants
11. Julio Jones, Falcons
12. Jordy Nelson, Packers
13. Brandon Marshall, Dolohins
14. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
15. Dez Bryant, Cowboys
16. Miles Austin, Cowboys
17. Percy Harvin, Vikings
18. Steve Smith, Panthers
19. Marques Colston, Saints
20. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
21. Kenny Britt, Titans
22. Antonio Brown, Steelers
23. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs
24. Steve Johnson, Bills
25. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
26. Santana Moss, Redskins
27. Brandon Lloyd, Rams
28. Laurent Robinson, Cowboys
29. Denarius Moore, Raiders
30. Michael Crabtree, 49ers
31. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
32. Torrey Smith, Ravens
33. Mike Williams, Buccaneers
34. Reggie Wayne, Colts
35. Santonio Holmes, Jets
36. Pierre Garcon, Colts
37. Mario Manningham, Giants
38. Anquan Boldin, Ravens
39. Lance Moore, Saints
40. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders
41. Sidney Rice, Seahawks
42. Malcom Floyd, Chargers
43. Johnny Knox, Bears
44. Eric Decker, Broncos
45. Titus Young, Lions
46. Jabar Gaffney, Redskins
47. Deion Branch, Patriots
48. Danny Amendola, Rams
49. Jacoby Ford, Raiders
50. Robert Meachem, Saints
51. Greg Little, Browns
52. Nate Washington, Titans

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - RBs - TEs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

When you begin to discuss fantasy tight ends, the conversation has to start with a pair of second-year players that had the two best years anyone has ever had at that position from a statistical standpoint.

Although they finished sixth and seventh in the NFL in receiving yards, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were two of only three players to finish with 90-plus receptions for 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns along with Lions receiver Calvin Johnson.

Gronkowski finished the season with 1,327 yards and 17 receiving touchdowns, both of which were single-season records for a tight end, on 90 receptions. Graham had more receptions (99) but slightly fewer yards (1,310) and less touchdowns (10).

Before a high-ankle sprain slowed down Gronkowski, both of them continued to roll in the postseason.

In two playoff games, Graham had 12 receptions for 158 yards and three touchdowns. Before suffering the high-ankle sprain, Gronkowski had 15 receptions for 232 yards and three touchdowns in his first two playoff games before Super Bowl XLVI.

How rare is the 90-1,300-10 season that both Graham and Gronkowski had?

Based on data from Pro Football Reference, it has happened 38 times in NFL history. In the previous three seasons, the only two players to reach those levels in the same season were Roddy White (2010) and Larry Fitzgerald (2008).

While Gronkowski and Graham are clearly at the top of the fantasy football tight end class, the position is as talented and productive as ever.

Here are some more notes on tight ends:

- Gronkowski's teammate Aaron Hernandez missed two games, but he still finished with 79 receptions for 910 yards and seven touchdowns. Based on his production of 65 yards per game, Hernandez would have likely given the Pats two 1,000-yard tight ends if he had played all 16 games. In addition, Hernandez was used as a rusher more frequently down the stretch.

- Eagles tight end Brent Celek got off to a slow start after a down season in 2010 but came on strong. In his first six games before the bye, Celek had only 13 receptions for 115 yards and one touchdown. In 10 games after the bye, Celek had 49 receptions for 696 yards and four touchdowns. In his final three games, he did even better: 13 receptions for 290 yards and scored a touchdown in each game.

- After missing a few games early in the season due to his foot, San Diego's Antonio Gates had 56 receptions for 704 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games. Hopefully he'll be able to stay on the field for a full season, but there's a good chance that the foot injury will continue to slow him down in the future considering it's lingered over the past two years.

- Tennessee's Jared Cook has a ton of upside and positive momentum heading into 2012. In his final three games, Cook finished with 21 receptions for 335 yards and a touchdown. (That said, Cook had a strong finish to the 2010 season, but he got off to a slow start in 2011.)

- Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew, the team's other first-round pick in 2009, finished with career highs across the board: 83 receptions, 777 yards and five touchdowns. Pettigrew is a solid low-end TE1, but he is even better in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues than those with standard scoring.

- Solid but inconsistent, Jets tight end Dustin Keller finished with 65 receptions for 815 yards and five touchdowns. In the first three weeks this season, he had 16 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns. In Weeks 2 to 4 in 2010, Keller had 17 receptions for 241 yards and five touchdowns. Stated another way: Keller had 490 yards and seven TDs in those six games and only 1,012 yards and three TDs in the other 26 games over the past two years.

- Speaking of inconsistency, Packers tight end Jermichael Finley, who is due to become a free agent this offseason, had three fantasy points or less in five games this season. Although he set a career high in touchdowns (eight), he had his lowest yards-per-game average (47.9) since his rookie season.

- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez, who has 1,149 career receptions for 13,338 yards, has decided to play another season, which makes sense considering how productive he was. Gonzalez finished with 80 receptions for 875 yards and seven touchdowns in 2011.

- Dallas tight end Jason Witten set five-year lows in both receptions (79) and yards (942), which is partly due to the production of the Cowboys top three receivers: Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Laurent Robinson.

Here are our 2012 fantasy football tight end rankings (using standard scoring -- i.e., not PPR scoring):

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. Jimmy Graham, Saints
3. Jason Witten, Cowboys
4. Antonio Gates, Chargers
5. Vernon Davis, 49ers
6. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
7. Jermichael Finley, Packers
8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons
9. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
10. Fred Davis, Redskins
11. Dallas Clark, Colts
12. Owen Daniels, Texans
13. Jermaine Gresham, Bengals
14. Brent Celek, Eagles
15. Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers
16. Dustin Keller, Jets
17. Jared Cook, Titans
18. Greg Olsen, Panthers
19. Anthony Fasano, Dolphins
20. Heath Miller, Steelers
21. Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
22. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
23. Scott Chandler, Bills
24. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
25. Evan Moore, Browns
26. Ed Dickson, Ravens

Note: We excluded rookies from our rankings and will include them after the 2012 NFL Draft in April.

More 2012 Rankings: QBs - RBs - WRs

2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - Our Mock Draft Database

To keep track of our updates, follow @EDSFootball on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Now the Giants have won their second Super Bowl (over the Patriots) in the past five years (list of all winners), it is time to start looking forward to the upcoming season.

That is, if you haven't done so already.

Based on odds from Sportsbook.com, neither the Giants nor the Patriots are early favorites to win Super Bowl XVLII. Here are the teams with the best odds:

- Green Bay Packers: +500 (5/1)
- New Orleans Saints: +600 (6/1)
- New England Patriots: +700 (7/1)
- New York Giants: +1,000 (10/1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles: +1,200 (12/1)
- San Diego Chargers: +1,500 (15/1)
- New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions: +2,000 (20/1)

[UPDATE: Earlier this morning, the Giants were at +2,000. As of 6 p.m., they are now +1,000. The other odds did not change.]

The longest of long shots are (all at +10,000, 100/1): Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you're looking for 2012 NFL Draft information, here is some information you'll find on our site:

- 2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue
- 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database
- List of underclassmen eligible for the 2012 NFL Draft

We are also in the process of releasing our initial 2012 Fantasy Football rankings, which will happen early this week. For a mock draft we are doing, click here.

To keep track of our updates, follow us on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

One month ago, I took a stab at who I'd thought would win the AP NFL postseason awards. Of the seven main awards, I predicted four correctly and three incorrectly.

Here are this year's winners:

AP NFL MVP - Aaron Rodgers, Packers: While Drew Brees was more prolific, Rodgers was more efficient this year. That was essentially why I predicted Rodgers would win the MVP and Brees would the Offensive Player of the Year award. Rodgers led the Packers to a league-high 15 regular-season wins and he set an NFL record with a 122.5 passer rating.

AP Offensive Player of the Year - Drew Brees, Saints: As noted above, this makes sense to me (since it was what I expected). Not only did Brees break the long-standing single-season passing yards record held by Dan Marino, but he shattered it (5,476 yards) and broke it with a week to spare. While the award is decided based on regular-season games only, Brees also threw for nearly 1,000 yards in his two postseason games (928 yards).

AP Defensive Player of the Year - Terrell Suggs, Ravens: As I noted in my predictions, where I had Suggs as the runner-up to the runner-up, he had great overall numbers -- first in forced fumbles (seven), fifth in sacks (14.0) and he had two interceptions. That said, nine of those sacks and six of the forced fumbles happened in three dominant games. In other words, he had only five sacks and one forced fumble in the other 13 games.

AP Comeback Player of the Year - Matthew Stafford, Lions: After playing in only three games in 2010 and 13 games in his first two seasons, Stafford was called a "China Doll" by a former teammate last offseason. Not only did he stay healthy for the full season, but Stafford became one of three players this season (but only four in NFL history) to throw for 5,000-plus yards.

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year - Cam Newton, Panthers: As well as some other rookies played this season, Newton won the award in a landslide as expected. Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton finished second with three votes, but I had A.J. Green as the runner-up in my prediction from January 4th. The only quarterback in NFL history to throw for 4,000-plus yards and rush for 700-plus yards is Newton, who also set the rushing touchdown record for quarterbacks (14) this year.

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year - Von Miller, Broncos: Before his injury forced him to miss a game and slow him down thereafter, Miller had 10.5 sacks in his first 11 games played. Although I would have given the award to San Francisco's Aldon Smith, it's hard to argue with either of the two winning the award.

AP Coach of the Year - Jim Harbaugh, 49ers: While there was plenty of talent already in place, especially on the defensive side of the ball, Harbaugh turned an under-achieving six-win team into a 13-win team with the second-best record in the NFC. Quarterback Alex Smith, a former No. 1 overall pick, had his best season with a 22:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio counting the postseason.

Our 2012 fantasy football rankings will be released by Monday.

To keep track of our updates, follow me on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Super Bowl XVLI: Prediction - Poll - Fantasy Rankings - Past Results - SB Squares

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 09:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

More than in any other sport, getting things right in the NFL Draft is critical to a team's ability to create and maintain long-term success.

In most cases, it is not necessarily the player(s) selected in the first round each year that leads to that success. It is the ability to find players in the later rounds of the draft or even the undrafted free agents that can contribute.

As we get closer to the draft, we will include mock drafts that go beyond the first round.

Last week, Brendan Donahue released his first 2012 NFL Mock Draft,

Here is how I see the first round unfolding:

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14) - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

We've seen the results without a healthy Peyton Manning, a four-time league MVP. The trio of Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky led the Colts to two wins and subsequently the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft. And we've seen the results with a healthy Manning: double-digit wins in 11 of 12 seasons. It is looking less and less likely that Manning, who will turn 36 this year, will be on the Colts' roster to receive a $28 million bonus he's due on March 8th. Fortunately for Indianapolis, who may or may not have decided to move on weeks ago, Luck is one of the best quarterback prospects to come along in a long time.

2. St. Louis Rams (2-14) - Matt Kalil, OT, USC

It is possible (even likely) that one of the quarterback-needy teams will trade up to the No. 2 spot to take Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III. While the Rams trading down is a very real possibility, I'm going to keep them here, for now.

Much of this month, I felt like the pick would be receiver Justin Blackmon, especially with Brandon Lloyd expected to leave via free agency (and perhaps to follow Josh McDaniels to New England). Instead, I have the Rams going with Kalil, an athletic offensive tackle from USC and the brother of Panthers Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil. No team allowed more sacks than the Rams (55) last year. Although St. Louis had injuries along their line, Jason Smith has been a bust so far and the team may even cut him if he doesn't agree to a pay cut.

[Related: Take our poll on which player will be selected second overall.]

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13) - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

If the Rams trade down (and RG3 goes second overall), I would expect the Vikings to take Kalil. Only four teams allowed more sacks than Minnesota. However, their pass defense was atrocious last year and they have to face the Packers and Lions four times a year. No team allowed more passing touchdowns (34) than the Vikings and no team intercepted fewer passes (eight). Especially after Dre Kirkpatrick's brush-in with the law earlier this month, Claiborne is clearly the top corner in this year's draft class.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12) - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

If the Browns don't trade up to take RG3 and he's still available here (I'm beginning to sound like a broken record), the Browns won't pass up the opportunity to take this year's Heisman Trophy recipient (see past winners). Accurate, athletic and intelligent, Griffin completed 72.4 percent of his passes and was just shy of 5,000 combined yards -- 4,293 passing yards and 699 rushing yards -- in 2011. For his career, Griffin has a 78:17 touchdown-to-interception ratio not counting his 33 rushing touchdowns.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The Bucs would probably prefer to take Claiborne at this spot with Ronde Barber nearing (or maybe coming to) the end of his career and the off-the-field issues of Aqib Talib. That said, I don't think the Bucs take Kirkpatrick, who created some questions about his character as noted above. Richardson has an impressive combination of size, strength and speed and is one of the best running back prospects in years.

6. Washington Redskins (5-11) - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

There is plenty of speculation that the Redskins will try to trade up to select RG3. If they don't, they will boost their passing game with the draft's most-talented pass-catcher. Blackmon, who is the back-to-back Biletnikoff recipient, has 232 receptions for 3,304 yards and 38 touchdowns combined over the past two seasons.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

If Blackmon is still available at No. 7, they won't hesitate to get their "franchise" quarterback a legitimate weapon in the passing game. (Granted, Blaine Gabbert looked horrible -- and scared -- last season, but the Jags arguably have the league's worst receiving corps). While many question Coples' motor, he is the premiere pass-rusher in the draft and the Jags have ranked in the bottom 10 in sacks for the past three years in a row.

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10) - Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Although the Dolphins have an elite left tackle in Jake Long, the top overall pick in 2008, they could certainly use an upgrade on the right side to replace Marc Colombo. Along with Kalil and Jonathan Martin, Reiff is one of the three best offensive tackles in this year's draft class.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10) - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Regardless of how free agency shakes out, the top two teams in the NFC South (New Orleans and Atlanta) have elite passing attacks. As noted earlier, Kirkpatrick will have some 'splaining to do (as Ricky Ricardo would say) about his off-field issues. But the Panthers get a cornerback with elite size (approximately 6-3) to pair up with Chris Gamble.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10) - Courtney Upshaw, DE/LB, Alabama

Only the Titans (28) and Bucs (23) had fewer sacks last year than the Bills (29). Defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, Upshaw's teammate at Alabama and the Bills' first-round pick last year, led the team in sacks last year with only 5.5. Upshaw will help.

To see the full first-round mock, click here.

For more mocks from around the internet, check out our 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

To keep track of our updates, follow me on Twitter and/or "like" us on Facebook.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 08:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Going into the 2012 season, Lions receiver Calvin Johnson is the clear-cut No. 1 fantasy wide receiver in football. He closed the season with four straight 100-yard games (although three of them were 200-yard games).

The debate comes into play when we are looking at who should be ranked second at the position.

Based on 2011 production, three of the top six receivers are not a huge surprise: Johnson, Wes Welker and Larry Fitzgerald. However, the other three were much less likely to finish in the top six based on preseason expectations and rankings.

Green Bay's Jordy Nelson finished second, New York's Victor Cruz finished fourth and Carolina's Steve Smith finished sixth.

Here is this week's roundtable topic: Using standard scoring (i.e., not PPR), who should be 2nd WR selected in 2012 fantasy football drafts?

Kevin (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

It is nearly impossible to predict injuries and many of our fantasy teams get wrecked from the injuries we suffer throughout any given season. A pair of hamstring injuries ruined Andre Johnson's fantasy production last year. Before his (first) hamstring injury, Johnson had 21 receptions for 316 yards and two touchdowns in the first three games of the season. The fact that he had 13 receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games reminds us that he is as talented as any other receiver not named Calvin. From 2007 to 2010, Johnson averaged more than 90 receiving yards per game every year. Provided he (and quarterback Matt Schaub) stays healthy next year, Johnson should put up 1,300-1,500 yards in 2012.

John (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

After Calvin Johnson, the top receiver I would take in 2012 would be Andre Johnson. Prior to Calvin's breakout season, Andre Johnson was generally regarded as the best receiver in football (with a short list of other possibilities like Larry Fitz or Roddy White.) The Texans offense has been heading in the right direction the last few years, with Arian Foster emerging as probably the best back in the league, which obviously helps open up the passing game. Schaub to Johnson was becoming a pretty lethal combo, but injuries to both players this year clearly hurt their production. Still, if both players can manage to stay healthy all year, Johnson is a big, strong receiver with great hands and he has a top-tier quarterback throwing to him. The Texans can score a lot of points, so I expect a big year out of Schaub, with Johnson being the main beneficiary. Because of this, I'd slot Andre Johnson as the number two most valuable fantasy receiver to start 2012.

Sean (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

This year it is going to be so hard to pick the No. 2 WR, I think you are almost better off going in another direction. I'd honestly consider drafting both Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham before the next WR (after Megatron).

The No. 2 WR will probably be taken around the 10th-12th pick in most drafts, so for arguments sake let's say you have the 10th pick. You only have to wait four more picks until you pick again. Is there a real difference between Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz? Not really. If you pass on a WR in both rounds, who do you think will be available in Rounds 3/4 to round out your team? The WRs you are looking at in 3rd/4th will be guys like Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Kenny Britt, AJ Green, etc.

I think this is the year to pass on WRs early and draft them later on. My strategy for this pick would be to draft one of the three elite QBs. Hope that one of the TE's falls to be in the 2nd. Then go WR/RB or WR/WR in rounds 3&4, and then just load up on RB's the rest of the draft. There is going to be plenty of players like Marshawn Lynch and Darren Sproles that come out of no where next season. If you are putting up 50 points a week with your QB/TE combo, and your second tier of WRs are the guys listed in the paragraph above, then you are going to be hard to beat. Could you see Vincent Jackson being the #2 WR next year? How about Dez Bryant, Kenny Britt or AJ Green? They all have the talent to take it to the next level.

My answer is simple. I am not drafting one. I am going elsewhere with my pick. If I had to bet money on who I thought would go No. 2 in most drafts though, I'd put my money on Andre Johnson. Johnson out of all the other WRs has the tools, and is in a great situation where he is going to get the majority of the balls thrown to him.

Dan (follow on Twitter): Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

If I am picking the number 2 wide receiver, I am still going with Andre Johnson of the Texans. Although he was limited to seven games, Johnson had 33 catches for an average of 14.9 yard per reception and two TDs. Johnson has been one of the league's most consistent talents, and will have a bounce-back year.

Steve: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

If you've followed my writing here, you'll have noticed that I'm a big fan of consistency and repeatability. Therefore, I would pick Larry Fitzgerald as he has been a machine for the past few years, despite the revolving door at QB in Arizona. I'm a little concerned about the dropoff in catches this past year (down from 90 to 80), but as the Cardinals get better this year so will Fitzgerald's numbers. His 1,400 yards are only a couple hundred behind Johnson and touchdowns tend to a be a feast-or-famine sort of stat for wide receivers. The other top yardage receivers (Victor Cruz, Wes Welker) have a lot of company on their team's receiving corps, and with only one football to go around, I'll take the guy with the least competion.

Previous Fantasy Football Friday Posts:
- Jan. 20: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
- Jan. 13: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?
- Jan. 6: Better Fantasy TE in 2012: Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham?

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Earlier today, we released the first iteration of Brendan Donahue's 2012 NFL Mock Draft.

Here is how he projects the first round to begin:

1. Colts - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: This is already a done deal according to owner Jim Irsay. Luck has been rated as the best QB prospect since John Elway so this is pretty much a no-brainer especially now that the Colts have made it clear that they are clearing house and going into a full rebuilding mode.

2. Rams - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: I could see the Rams being tempted by a team trying to trade up to get RG3 and moving this pick, but if they stay put I look for them to add the most dynamic weapon available in the draft. Although I don't have Blackmon as highly rated as Calvin Johnson, I do see him having an instant impact in the NFL and developing into a Pro Bowl receiver down the road.

3. Vikings - Matt Kalil, OT, USC: Maybe the safest pick in the entire draft.  The clear cut best tackle in the draft and someone that the Vikings can put on Chrisian Ponder's blind side and protect him for the next 10 years (this is if Ponder plays for the next ten years...). If Rams trade their pick or pass on Blackmon for some reason, look for Vikings to snatch him up here.

4. Browns - Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The Heisman winner has been rapidly moving up draft boards and could eventually move up to #2 come draft day but for this mock were going to assume everyone drafts where they are slated and the Browns would be very happy to draft RGIII here. I think they are ready to concede that Colt McCoy is not a franchise QB in the NFL and will jump at the opportunity to add one here.

5. Bucs - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: Based on how the Bucs finished the year, they could clearly use help in just about every area. With Blackmon off the board however, I look for them to add the best cornerback available in Morris Claiborne. A big physical corner who is also considered the best cover corner in the draft is exactly what they need as they battle in the same division with the air attacks of the Saints and Falcons.

See the full first round here.

For more mock drafts, visit our 2012 NFL Mock Draft Database.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 08:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

For the third time in four games, Lions receiver Calvin Johnson finished with more than 200 receiving yards in a game.

In tonight's loss to the Saints, my pick to win it all, Johnson caught 12 of 15 targets and finished with 211 yards and two touchdowns.

Before this year, only five other receivers have had 200-plus receiving yards in a postseason game in NFL history.

In his past four games counting tonight's game, Megatron has a total of 36 receptions for 771 yards and six touchdowns. He has at least 102 receiving yards and one touchdown in all four games during that span.

Johnson led the NFL in receiving yards (1,681), was second in receiving touchdowns (16) and fourth in receptions (96) during the regular season. All three of those were career highs and Johnson will be the consensus top receiver drafted in 2012.

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 11:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Earlier in the week, five EDSFootball.com contributors predicted the final score for all four games during wild-card weekend. Of the four games, two were consensus picks: Saints over Lions and Texans over Bengals.

Yesterday, John Trifone made his full playoff prediction including his winner of Super Bowl XLVI.

Now it's my turn.

Here are my picks for the full playoffs from this point:

NFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Saints over (6) Lions (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Falcons over (4) Giants (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Packers over (5) Falcons
(3) Saints over (2) 49ers

NFC Championship Game (historical results): (3) Saints over (1) Packers

Could the team with the best regular-season record, likely MVP (see my award predictions) and best odds to win the Super Bowl be one-(win)-and-done in the playoffs? Perhaps it's coincidental, but the last time a team with the best record in the regular season won the Super Bowl was after the 2003 season when the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII. That is not why I'm picking the Saints over the Packers, but it's an interesting stat.

Granted the Saints would have a better shot of winning this game if it were in New Orleans, but Brees and the Saints have as high powered of an offense as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The difference is the Saints offense is more versatile. New Orleans ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing offense (132.9 yards per game). Green Bay has the sixth-worst rushing offense (97.4 YPG). Brees has a seven-game streak of 300-plus passing yards and here is his line during that span: 71.6 completion percentage, 2,472 passing yards (353.1 per game), 124.3 passer rating and a 25:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

AFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Texans over (6) Bengals (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Steelers over (4) Broncos (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans

AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens

As we have seen through the regular season, the Ravens have been a much better team at home than on the road: 8-0 (home) and 4-4 (road). On the other hand, we know how tough the Tom Brady-led Patriots are to beat at home. The Ravens defense is as good as it gets and Brady has not played great against them. In five games (counting their playoff loss two years ago) against Baltimore, Brady has completed only 55.9 percent of his passes (104 of 186) for 226.6 YPG and has thrown as many interceptions (six) as touchdowns (six). That said, I think this game comes down to the last possession and Brady pulls out the victory in Foxboro.

Super Bowl XLVI (historical results): Saints over Patriots

Coincidentally, the Saints ranked sixth in the league in rushing offense when they won the Super Bowl two years ago. I think their offensive balance and ability to play the Super Bowl in a dome (Indianapolis) makes them nearly impossible to defend. Then again, nearly every team has been difficult to defend for the Patriots, especially their defensive backs. When it comes to offense, the difference between Brady and Brees and Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham is negligible. This game has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring Super Bowls ever, but I have more faith in the Saints' ability to make a stop or two when needed than I have in New England's. The Saints will win, 35-27.

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Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Yesterday, the other EDSFootball.com contributors and I released all individual game predictions for the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Here are my picks for the full playoffs from this point:

NFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Saints over (6) Lions (see our picks and rationale)
(4) Giants over (5) Falcons (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Packers over (4) Giants
(2) 49ers over (3) Saints

NFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Packers over (2) 49ers

I know this is actually complete chalk in terms of seeds, but most people will have the Saints over the 49ers and possibly even the Packers. I also suspect a fair amount of people will take the Falcons over the Giants in the first round. I'd love to go another way than the Packers, but they've been hands down the best team in football this year in my eyes, and if they can play to their potential, I don't see anyone beating them.

AFC

Wild-Card Round:
(3) Texans over (6) Bengals (see our picks and rationale)
(5) Steelers over (4) Broncos (see our picks and rationale)

Divisional Round:
(1) Patriots over (5) Steelers
(2) Ravens over (3) Texans

AFC Championship Game (historical results): (1) Patriots over (2) Ravens

I'm not a Patriots fan, so I'd like to see myself be wrong here, but the Patriots are the best team in the AFC. They have come out flat in a lot of games this year, and then ended up just pouring it on and winning the game easily. Since losing to the Giants, the Patriots have won eight games in a row. Their offense is as good as any in the league, and their defense, though 31st in the league in yards, is 15th in points allowed. The poor defensive numbers are a little misleading though, as they are with Green Bay's 32nd-ranked defense. Though I wouldn't call either defense "good," they are victimized by such strong offenses. The defense is on the field more often with less rest when the offense can score as quickly and efficiently as these offenses do. I do think the Ravens can pose a challenge, but in New England, it's hard to pick against Brady and Belichick, the winningest coach/player combination in league history.

Super Bowl XLVI (historical results): Packers over Patriots

I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb picking the 15-1 Packers to win the Super Bowl. That said, it certainly isn't going to be an easy road. The Saints are perhaps the hottest team in the league, and it will take a lot to get by them if need be. The 49ers have a great defense that would likely slow down the Packers' offense. And while San Fran's offense is not great, Green Bay's defense is obviously their weak point. Even the Giants are capable of knocking the Packers off, given that Eli Manning led a drive in the final minutes of the game they played earlier in the year to tie them with less than a minute to go. Rodgers was able to one up Eli and march down the field in a matter of seconds to get into field goal range and get the win, but ever since the Chiefs upset Green Bay, they certainly were exposed as beatable.

The Patriots are also beatable, as they fall behind early far too often. Although their offense seems like they can score at will, their defense is quite vulnerable, and if they fall behind to a good playoff team, the Patriots certainly could go down. Every team has their flaws, though. The Ravens have been inexplicably bad at times this year, the Steelers have injury problems and can't beat the Ravens, and the Texans lost their number one quarterback earlier in the season, realistically taking them out of top contention in the eyes of most.

As for the game itself, the Packers are just the better overall team. You can flip a coin on Brady and Rodgers, and it's likely that whoever gets the ball last will be the team to triumph. But between the Packers defense being the better group in my mind and the Patriots problems with falling behind early, I like the Packers to come out on top. In this day and age, it's difficult for a team to repeat as champion, but the Packers are good enough to do just that. And I expect that they will.

See more of John's posts here and follow him on Twitter @JohnnyT0122

Posted by John Trifone at 06:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

There were three quarterbacks that threw for 5,000-plus yards in the 2011 season. Two of them will meet in New Orleans.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees set a number of passing records this season: yards (5,476), completions (468), completion percentage (71.2) and 300-yard games (13) to name a few. Yet I had him finishing second in the MVP voting when I predicted postseason award winners earlier in the week.

Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, the top overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, threw for 5,038 yards, but as importantly he stayed healthy for a full 16-game season after playing in only three games last year. Of course, he would have not thrown for 5,000-plus yards without playing a full season.

The Lions are in the postseason for the first time since 1999 and this game is destined to be a shootout, which means it'll be 9-6, right?

For the entire playoffs, all of the EDSFootball.com contributors including myself will make a prediction (including the final score) for each playoff game.

Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Saints-Lions game:

John: New Orleans Saints 38, Detroit Lions 34

New Orleans has been unbelievable this season. They've won their final eight games of the season, and finished 8-0 at home. Drew Brees annihilated Marino's single-season passing yards record and put himself in MVP contention, a feat that looked impossible a few weeks ago, considering the season Aaron Rodgers has had. There is absolutely nothing that says that the Lions will win this game. I've gone back and forth on this game, but I just can't pull the trigger. The Saints at home are just too good. And the Lions still have an immature, mistake-ridden group that needs to become more disciplined before they will be among the favorites to win it all. I do expect the Lions to come out with a lot of energy and even rattle Brees a bit. In the end, though, home field and the most explosive offense in the league will simply be too much for Detroit.

Sean: New Orleans Saints 37, Detroit Lions 31

Detroit blew it this past week vs Matt Flynn and the Packers. Nobody wants to play the Saints at home right now. Drew Brees and the Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. The only way to beat the Saints is to beat them in a shoot out. When you get opportunities versus the Saints in the redzone, you have to convert those to TDs and not FGs. Detroit is fourth in the NFL in converting TD's in the redzone. Detroit is also third in the NFC in takeaways while New Orleans is last. This game is going to be closer then people think, although I think Detroit's inexperience will be their downfall.

Dan: New Orleans Saints 38, Detroit Lions 28

In a game that has the potential to post the most offensive fireworks in playoff history, as both teams surpassed the 5,000-yard passing mark for the year. The Saints have been the leagues hottest team down the stretch, and look almost invincible at home since they posted a perfect 8-0 record. The Saints have been on fire lately as in their last three games they have posted 40 plus points in each, and won by an average of 25 points. The Saints and Lions also faced off in December in New Orleans with the decision going to the Saints, 31-17. The Lions were able to move the ball on the Saints gaining 466 total yards of offense, and if they can stay away from the turnover, they have a great chance to pick off the Saints. I like the Brees-led Saints passing attack just a little bit better than the young Lions 22nd-ranked passing defense that has yielded 26 touchdowns on the year. I am taking the Saints, 38-28.

Steve: New Orleans Saints 45, Detroit Lions 33

If you like points, you’ve come to the right game. Not sure what Vegas has now, but pretty sure you want to take the over. I expect this game to be Calvin Johnson and Drew Brees setting playoff records at their respective positions. NFL “pundits” have questioned Johnson’s ability and desire to take over a game and this will be his moment to prove them wrong. I could easily see 200+ yards and two TDs for Johnson, unfortunately he will be handicapped by his quarterback. Stafford is a good, young, QB, however, he’s overmatched in this game and his 300-plus yards and three TDs are going to overset by three picks, not to mention overshadowed by Drew Brees. Brees throws 400 yards and 6 touchdowns and another notch in his Hall of Fame resume. The Saints offensive jugernaught slowly pulls away in a game that looks like it could go either way.

Kevin: New Orleans Saints 48, Detroit Lions 42

Imagine if this were a college football game (or that their overtime rules were used for this game)? This could end up being a 91-84 shootout in eight overtimes or something ridiculous like that. The Lions are coming off a game in which Matthew Stafford and Packers backup Matt Flynn combined for 1,000 passing yards. So, this week, substitute Brees, who set the single-season passing yardage record this year, for Flynn and let's see what we get. With both teams having explosive offenses, the question comes down to which team is more likely to muster a stop or two and I think that team is New Orleans. With the Super Dome being one of the toughest places to play for road teams, the Saints will outlast the Lions in one of the highest-scoring playoff games in NFL history.

More Predictions: Texans vs. Bengals | Broncos vs. Steelers | Giants vs. Falcons

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Posted by Kevin Hanson at 07:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

Soon enough, the Associated Press will announce the winner(s) of various NFL awards. Technically, that will happen on February 4th from 9-11 p.m. on NFL Network.

But why wait one month? I'm going to tell you now which players (and coach) will win the awards. In fact, I'm also going to tell you who the runner up will be as well.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on who will win each respective award:

Most Valuable Player (MVP): Aaron Rodgers, Packers

- Runner-up: Drew Brees, Saints

One can certainly argue that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, the reigning league MVP, had an MVP-like season. Not only did Brady lead the Patriots to 13 wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but he threw for the second-most yards (5,235) in any season in NFL history. That said, the quarterback that threw for the most in NFL history did so this season as well: Saints quarterback Drew Brees (5,476).

As great of a season as Brady had, the MVP voting will likely come down to Brees and Rodgers. Brees threw for more yards than Rodgers (5,476 to 4,643), one more touchdown (46 to 45) and completed a higher percentage of his passes (71.2 to 68.3 percent). In fact, Brees set the single-season mark for completion percentage in addition to 300-yard games (13) as well.

If Rodgers did not sit out Week 17, he would have come close to (or reached) the 5,000-yard mark as Brees, Brady and Detroit's Matthew Stafford did. After all, backup Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards and six touchdowns, both of which are franchise records, on Sunday. Perhaps Flynn's great performance is an argument against Rodgers, but Rodgers has been nearly flawless this season and the Packers have won a league-best 15 games.

Rodgers set the NFL record for highest quarterback rating (122.5) and started the season with 12 straight games with a passer rating of 100-plus. In addition, he set the franchise record with 45 passing touchdowns and threw only six interceptions in 502 pass attempts. For the fourth straight season, Rodgers has rushed for at least three touchdowns and 200 yards.

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, Saints

- Runner-up: Aaron Rodgers, Packers

While I think Rodgers will win the MVP (as noted above), I can see Brees taking home the award for Offensive Player of the Year. Rodgers was more efficient (he threw 155 less pass attempts than Brees), but he led the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt (9.2).

Brees was more prolific setting records in passing yards, completions (458) and 300-yard games and leading the league in passing touchdowns. He closed out the season with seven straight 300-yards games and threw a total of 14 touchdown passes in his final three games.

Out of these two players, there is no wrong choice as both have had remarkable seasons and it wouldn't surprise me if we see co-MVPs.

Continue reading "2011 NFL Offseason Awards: Predicting the Winners" »

Posted by Kevin Hanson at 06:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

With the NFL regular season over, this will be our final Consensus NFL Power Rankings for the 2011 season. From this point, the playoffs determine whether or not the Packers should still be the No. 1 unanimous choice at the top of the power rankings.

Twelve teams have the power to determine their own fate; the other 20 teams can only watch and start rebuilding for 2012 and beyond. And some teams (St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Indianapolis) have already fired their head coach and/or general manager.

Here are some stats on this week's consensus rankings:

- Biggest jump from last week: San Diego Chargers (+4.75)
- Biggest drop from last week: Oakland Raiders (-3.75)
- Team with widest difference between high and low rank: New York Jets and Oakland Raiders (8)

[See this week's full rankings.]

As part of our weekly power rankings, we will feature one question that all four rankers will answer.

Here is this week's question (followed by our responses): Which wild card team has the best shot to get to (and perhaps win) the Super Bowl?

John (follow John on Twitter): I'd love to say that the Falcons have the best chance to get to the Super Bowl as a wild card. They've really come on and have been playing very well down the stretch. However, the NFC is just too strong, and I don't see either Atlanta or Detroit getting through two or possibly all three of the top three seeds (Packers, 49ers and Saints). Realistically, the Steelers are the wild card team with the best chance to go all the way. They have already beaten the top-seeded Patriots and although they have lost twice to the Ravens, historically the Steelers have been very good against them (including knocking them out of last year's playoffs). The Steelers are good offensively and defensively, and they've certainly been there before. If they are healthy enough, they are the wild card team with the best chance to make the Super Bowl.

Sean (visit Sean's website): I am choosing Pittsburgh even without Mendenhall for the playoffs. It was really a process of elimination. The Bengals have only beat one team over .500 this year and that was the Titans. Detroit is playing the Saints, who look really good, and the Falcons (if they win and if the Saints win) have a date in Green Bay next week. New England and Baltimore are both beatable in the AFC.

Dan (follow Dan on Twitter): It seems that lots of wildcard teams have been making moves into the Super Bowl lately, and the team that will have the best shot to get to and win the SuperBowl would be the Steelers. Pittsburgh is battle-tested and they know what it takes to get to and win the championship. All of the AFC teams have question marks, and if there is a team that is built to win three on the road, I trust Roethlisberger and LeBeau's defense over any of the other wildcards.

Kevin (follow Kevin on Twitter): While I don't think any of the wild card teams will actually make it to the Super Bowl this year, the path of least resistance is through the AFC. Along with the Packers last year, the Steelers are the other team in NFL history that has won the Super Bowl despite being a No. 6 seed. If there's a wild card team that can do it, I'd go with the team that has already done it (recently).

See how all 32 teams were ranked in our final 2011 Consensus NFL Power Rankings.

Related: our Consensus NBA Power Rankings

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