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Fantasy Football Friday: Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?

Not only is it a three-day weekend for many of us, this is my favorite football weekend of the season.

With the eight best teams still alive, in theory, it is the final week of the season with four NFL games. In addition, it's the final week with games on more than one day.

One of the games this weekend features one of the all-time great quarterbacks in New England's Tom Brady against Denver's Tim Tebow, who ESPN declared as America's "most popular" athlete and is one of the most polarizing players in the league.

Take our poll on how many passing yards Tebow will have this week.

This week's Fantasy Football Friday roundtable question:

Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 among QBs in fantasy points in 2012?

Tim Tebow: Top 12 in 2012?
Will Tim Tebow finish in the top 12 in fantasy points among QBs in 2012?

Yes
No


view results

John (see archives): When I first read this question, my immediate instinct was no way. But when I looked a little deeper at it, it's actually a lot closer than I initially thought. Tebow had a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, so he has limited his mistakes this past season. In addition, he added almost 50 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns on the ground. If Tebow does play a full season next year, it's more than reasonable to think he could crack even the top 10 fantasy QBs. His rampant popularity may be enough to allow him this opportunity, even if he does have a few sluggish games next year. For now, it certainly does seem like his job to lose. Still, I'm going to say Tebow will not be a top 12 fantasy QB next year. While he certainly has big fantasy point potential, I believe he will have at least a few real bust games, which will lower his overall production. I expect teams to start to figure him out a bit, and as the magic starts to wear off, his fantasy numbers may regress. He made some big plays this past weekend against the Steelers, but I'm not sure Tebow is a good enough quarterback to continue to take chances and not turn the ball over. And if he starts having two and three interception games, that's going to start to eat into the points gained from his rushing production. Overall, I'd say Tebow is still too much of a gamble to make your starting fantasy QB, but he's certainly worth a roster spot, as he does have a lot of potential to prove people like myself wrong.

Sean (visit his site): This may be the easiest question of the offseason. There is no way Tim Tebow will finish in the top 12 in fantasy points next year among QBs. Tebow will never be a QB who throws for 3,500 yards and 20-plus TDs. Tebow is going to need to put up rushing touchdowns like Cam Newton did this year to crack the top 12, and that isn't happening. If Tebow is named starter next year, and that is a big IF, I don't think he will play a full 16 games. I believe this game this week versus the Patriots will lay the blue print down forever on how to stop the Tebow-led Broncos. I see Tebow starting next year, and lasting about 6-7 games before being yanked for good.

Dan (follow on Twitter): I certainly think that Tim Tebow will finish next year in the top 12 of quarterbacks for fantasy points overall. Tebow averaged 123 yards passing on the year, and 47 yards rushing the ball and 18 touchdowns in 11 starts, which in standard scoring would be good enough for about 15 points per game. Tebow will certainly benefit from a full offseason as the established first-string QB, and an offense that will be even more tailored to his ability. Tebow is also definitely in the company of the guys that statistically hang out in the 12-16 range, as they are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck and Mark Sanchez. I think Tebow can certainly put up more total yards than those guys.

Steve (see archives): Before getting to the numbers, I can't envision a sitution (aside from injury) in which Tebow does not come back as the starter next year for Denver. He's currently backed up by Brady Quinn - who couldn't even win the starting job in Cleveland - so there's no real threat on the roster, which means they would need to acquire one via draft, trade or free agency. The price will seem unreseasonably high for the Broncos to trade for Manning or go up the draft board for Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III. Some other food for thought on the topic: How long did John Fox stick with Jake Delhomme in Carolina? As for the numbers, extrapolating out Tebow's performance to a full season would put hiim around 300 points, good enough for 10th best at QB. That's right at the cut-off, especially given injury to otherwise likely starters Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, and Matt Cassel. If you're comparing Tebow to the 10-15 range of QBs, would you bank on more points out of Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton grouping, or Tebow. I think with the young receivers (sleeper alert: Titus Young), and the differential for running vs passing TDs (generally 6 vs. 4 points), the upside on Tebow is better and I'm confident he'll be top 12 in QB Fantasy points.

Brendan (follow on Twitter): Tim Tebow will not be in the top 12 fantasy QBs in 2012. While I do feel Tebow will finish the year as the starter in Denver - he will not have progressed enough in the passing game to crack the top 12. Looking back on his 11 regular season starts in 2011 - he only threw for 12 touchdowns and only topped the 200 yard mark twice. Now that teams will have an entire offseason to review and prepare for Tebow I think he and coach John Fox will have to be even more creative in 2012 for him to succeed. I expect the top 12 fantasy QBs in 2012 to be: Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Eli Manning, Vick, Stafford, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Schaub. Notice I said Eli Manning and didn't even mention his brother, who if healthy could not only be in the top 12 but possibly the top 5 next year. I really don't see Tebow finishing ahead of any of those names.

Kevin (follow on Twitter): From Week 5, when he replaced Kyle Orton mid-game, to Week 16, the championship week in most leagues, Tebow finished with 12-plus fantasy points every week. It was never pretty, but it was remarkably consistent. Since then, he has had his worst and best performance (minus one point in Week 17 but a season-high 31 points against Pittsburgh in the playoffs). Since Week 5, Tebow ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing yards (661), which is the most among quarterbacks. Carolina's Cam Newton was 26th during that span with 573 rushing yards. During that same span, however, Tebow ranked 27th in passing yards (1,730). In fact, Tebow has thrown for more than 200 yards in only three of his 12 starts (counting last week's 316-yard performance). While I think he finishes just outside of the top 12 in fantasy points among quarterbacks, I think it is relatively close.

Divisional-Round Fantasy Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs

Playoff Predictions: 49ers vs. Saints | Patriots vs. Broncos | Ravens vs. Texans | Packers vs. Giants

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More EDSFootball.com Content:

- 2012 NFL Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - NFL Mock Draft Database
- 2012 NBA Mock Drafts: Kevin Hanson - Brendan Donahue - NBA Mock Draft Database
- 2012 Weekly Consensus NBA Power Rankings
- 2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft
- 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: C - 1B - 2B- 3B- SS- OF- SP- RP



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