Fantasy Football Friday: Who should be the No. 1 pick in 2012 Fantasy Football Drafts?
Although we still have three games left in the 2011 NFL season, it's never too early to look ahead to the next season.
Even if you made it to your league's championship game and it was played in Week 16, nearly a full month has passed since your season ended.
Over the next week or so, we will release our initial 2012 fantasy football rankings. The plan is to update them after the start of the NFL free-agency period and then again after the 2012 NFL Draft. When July rolls around, they will be updated more frequently and we plan on creating point-per-reception (PPR) rankings as well as rankings for keeper leagues.
For now, we will take a look at what you should do if you had the first overall pick and drafted today.
Let's be clear about one thing: getting the first overall (or your first-round) pick won't win you a championship. Getting it wrong, however, may lose it for you though.
Using standard scoring, who should be the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 fantasy football drafts?
John (follow on Twitter): Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
If next year's draft were to be held today, there are three players I would struggle with to decide who should be number one overall: Arian Foster, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Generally, running backs dominate the first round, and there are plenty of great ones out there. Guys like Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and MJD are all first-round picks. However, Brees and Rodgers (even more than Brady) have separated themselves from the rest of the pack when it comes to putting up fantasy numbers, and having one of these studs is a significant advantage over other strong quarterback choices like Tony Romo or Eli Manning. Because of this discrepancy between a "good" QB option and one of these elite guys, I would strongly consider taking one of the quarterbacks at number one overall. However, if I had to choose today, I think I would go with Arian Foster. For the second year in a row, Foster was an absolute fantasy beast. He is the most consistent part of the Texans' offense as both a running back as well as a receiver. Had he been healthy all year, he likely would have challenged for his second rushing title in two years. Foster is the best in the game, and my choice for top pick in fantasy next year.
Sean (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The player I want was my No. 1 rated RB last year and that is Ray Rice. Rice was first in the NFL in total yards (2,068) and second in totals TDs (15). I think Rice is the best RB in football, and is a lock for at least top 5 this next season. The reasoning behind my Rice pick comes down to who I think will be available to me at the end of the 2nd round. Drafting Aaron Rodgers is awfully tempting. I am going to get a guy who is going to get me 4,000+ yards and 40 TD easy, but there are so many talented QBs in the league that I will be happy with a Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton at the end of the 2nd round. Even someone like Tom Brady could slip. I think the combo of Rice/Stafford is better then Rodgers/Reggie Bush. That is if I went with a QB in rounds 2/3. I could get a Jimmy Graham/Roddy White there and grab someone like Romo with my back-to-backs the next time around. Romo in the 5th, is going to be better than Jonathan Stewart (believe me, you don't want that headache).
Dan (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
If I land the number one pick in a fantasy draft, PPR or not, I am taking Ray Rice. Rice was the only running back to compile 2000 yards from scrimmage, and also scored 15 touchdowns. Arian Foster has Ben Tate and Andre Johnson as his foils, Maurice Jones-Drew will face 10-man fronts, and Chris Johnson is not to be trusted. I want the sure thing with the number one pick, and the Ravens offense goes as Rice goes.
Steve: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
The decision on the number 1 overall pick is really a convergence of styles. To use a baseball analagy, do you swing for the fences or try to win with singles? - I'm a fan of hitting singles, which means I want a player with a high level of consistency and ability to out-produce the "average player" or his peer group on a weekly basis. Traditional draft philosphy has put a premium on running backs, but given the implementation of platoons and near every season an injury (Jamaal Charles looks great for one game) or general underperformance effectively killing the fantasy season of some running backs and thus their owners (Yes - I'm still bitter at Chris Johnson). Therefore, I want a quarterback and there are really only three options: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Tom Brady. I think you'll be fine with either, but my preference is Drew Brees because Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham give the Saints the best redzone targets of any of the three team's receiving corps. If you want to try for the home run, go and draft a running back - maybe AP comes back from the knee injury the same or Ben Tate doesn't take too many carries from Arian Foster, but in hindsight you may be really wishing you didn't have to decide between Mark Sanchez or Matt Hasselbeck at QB.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
For me, the top three picks in 2012 should be the following three players (not particularly in order): Baltimore's Ray Rice, Houston's Arian Foster and Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy. At this point, however, I think that would be my order, but it's close between Rice and Foster. No other player had more yards from scrimmage than Foster (4,061) and Rice (3,844) over the past two seasons. Not only did Rice lead in yards from scrimmage this season (partly due to Foster missing a couple of games), but he scored 15 touchdowns, which is nearly twice his previous high of eight (in 2009). Even though Foster should get a heavy workload either way, he has a talented backup in Ben Tate, who just missed rushing for 1,000 yards this season. It's so close between the top two, but I'd give the edge to Rice.
Related: Fantasy Rankings for the Championship-Game Round: QBs - RBs - WRs - TEs
Championship Games: AFC: Prediction - Past Results | NFC: Prediction - Past Results
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