AFC Championship Game Prediction(s): New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
The NFL season has a total of 267 meaningful games: 256 regular-season games and 11 postseason games.
We are down to three games before we begin the offseason. (At least this time around, we won't have to worry about the status of the 2012 season.)
Through the first eight playoff games, we have a cumulative record of 28-12 and John Trifone and Steve Woodhull have picked seven out of eight games correctly.
Here are the predictions from the EDSFootball.com crew for the the Patriots-Ravensgame:
John (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 27, Baltimore Ravens 16
The Ravens had the least impressive victory of the weekend, opening up a 17-0 lead against the Texans early, and going on to score only three points in the final three quarters of the game. Houston was in it until the end, and you got the feeling that had they not been forced to start a rookie quarterback (who threw three interceptions), Baltimore may be going home right now instead of on to New England. Still, a W is a W, and at the end of the day, the Ravens did what they needed to do to advance. Style points don't count for anything in this league. All that matters is Baltimore is moving on to the AFC Championship.
The Patriots, on the other hand, had the most impressive victory of the weekend, destroying the Broncos, 45-10. Brady threw for a playoff record six touchdowns, which he had early in the third quarter. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was unstoppable once again, catching 10 balls for 145 yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots defense also seemed to play well, shutting down Tebow and holding the Broncos to just 10 points.
Strange as it may seem, I'm not putting too much stock into either of these games. The Ravens are accustomed to winning ugly games, and it's really not all that surprising that their offense struggled with the number two defense in the league. What I took from that game is that Baltimore made plays when they had to. I expect a completely different Ravens team next week. As Ray Lewis said, they're "not the Broncos."
Similarly, the Patriots played the game that everyone expected them to play. "They are who we thought they were." The spread wasn't 13 1/2 because people were expecting a tight one. Somehow, the Broncos found a way to eek out a home game against Pittsburgh as a double-digit underdog, but a hostile environment against a Patriots team with something to prove was obviously quite a different story.
With all that said, I'm taking the Patriots to move on to the Super Bowl this year. This looks to be a relatively close game that's sure to be a fantastic chess match between a Ray Lewis and Ed Reed-led defense and a Belichick and Brady-led offense. Ultimately, though, the Patriots will just be too much for Baltimore. The Patriots offense is going to put up points, and I just have not seen enough out of Joe Flacco to make me think that they can win this one. Look for the Patriots to avenge their home loss in the first round of the playoffs from two years ago, and get back to their first Super Bowl since their perfect season, where they met and were defeated by the New York Giants.
Sean (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 27, Baltimore Ravens 23
Baltimore has been a tricky team to figure out this year. They played awful versus the Texans, but they were lucky enough to get a few turnovers which lead to some easy points. They aren't going to be able to rely on those turnovers to beat New England. The Ravens offense is going to need to do a better job moving the ball and finishing drives with touchdowns, because the Patriots will score plenty of points. The Patriots defense looked great against the Broncos, but let's remember one thing, it was just the Broncos! Ray Rice may be the most valuable player to this team, and there is no doubt the Ravens need to give him plenty of touches and get him going, but Joe Flacco is the key to this game. Flacco has been hot and cold all year. One week he looks like he could be a franchise-type QB, and then the next week there are rumors about Peyton Manning saving the team next season. Flacco is going to need to step up and have a big game.
It's funny that all the talk this year has been about Rodgers and Brees, and both of those guys are sitting home, and the best QB in the NFL is still playing. Brady has been playing great this season, and shouldn't get overlooked as a true MVP candidate. One thing that will be tough for Brady is that the Ravens play well against opposing TEs. The Ravens only give up 7 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Only the Rams gave up less points to TEs. It will be tough to stop Gronkowski and Hernandez though. I really like Brady and the Pats in the revenge factor here after that last embarrassing loss in the playoffs a few years back. I like the Ravens to cover the 7 1/2, but the Pats win 27-23. (I really hope the Ravens win though.)
[Related: Take our poll here on who should be league MVP.]
Dan (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens 16
The AFC Championship Game will be a chalk matchup of the number one and two seeds overall, and I think the Patriots will be salivating to get a little bit of revenge. The Ravens bounced the Patriots in the 2010 playoffs in style by heaping a 33-14 beating on New England, and that game wasn't even that close. Historically the Patriots have done well against the Ravens, as they have gone 7-1 in their last 8 against Baltimore, which is an impressive mark against an elite team. Although New England has not really played a team with a winning record as of late, the Patriots seem as motivated as the classic championship teams of past. The Ravens have put up an exceptional run on defense this year, as they have limited teams to 201 yards through the air, and only 92 yards on the ground. The Patriots will look to counter with the second-best passing offense in the league, as they have averaged 308 yards per game. To me, when a defensive player (Ed Reed) calls out his quarterback (Joe Flacco) during championship week, that never bodes well for that team. The Patriots will rattle Flacco in the big moment, will force turnovers, and with Brady supremely motivated will have enough to get to the Super Bowl.
Steve: New England Patriots 37, Baltimore Ravens 27
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was the wild-card round of 2009, a game most Patriot fans want to forget. That game saw the Patriots fall behind 24-0 in the first quarter as Ray Rice broke an 83-yard run for a TD on the first play from scrimmage. Subsequently the Patriots proceeded repeatedly to shoot themselves in the foot to the tune of three turnovers in the first quarter to set up the other 17 first quarter Ravens points. Because of the turnovers early, the Ravens actually only accumulated 41 yards of offense to earn 17 points – I don’t know how to prove it but that must be some kind of record.
Two years after that debacle much of the key personnel is still the same for both ball clubs. The biggest losses and acquisitions both sits with the Patriots. The Patriot defense has slowly degraded the past couple of years; however, the addition of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at tight end, make this offense something special. Brady set an NFL record with five touchdown passes in the first half last week, and although I don’t think he can replicate that, I would expect another big week. Joe Flacco will try to keep up and will certainly exceed the 34 yards of passing he had in 2009, perhaps you could add a zero to the end of that, but it won’t be enough. The Patriots see the track to the Super Bowl laid out of them, and I expect that train to keep rolling. They won’t score 45 against this defense, but they’ll get enough.
Kevin (follow on Twitter): New England Patriots 31, Baltimore Ravens 24
In only one half of football last week, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady threw five touchdowns, which set the NFL postseason record. Brady finished the game with six touchdowns, three of which went to tight end Rob Gronkowski. In 17 games, Gronkowski has a total of 21 touchdowns (20 receiving and one rushing). As prolific as the Patriots passing offense has been, the Ravens defense has been equally as stingy.
The Ravens have allowed a league-low 11 passing touchdowns and no more than one passing touchdown in any game through 17 games while intercepting 18 passes. That said, the Ravens have faced the worst group of quarterbacks in the NFL during that stretch. The four best quarterbacks they faced were Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton. The bad ones were guys like Blaine Gabbert, Tarvaris Jackson, Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Dan Orlovsky, etc. In other words, I think the Ravens defense is overrated to some degree.
The Ravens aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home and the Patriots are extremely tough to beat at home. Plus it's hard to trust Joe Flacco, especially when it seems like not even Ed Reed does.
Related: Our NFC Championship Prediction | Fantasy Rankings: QBs - RBs - WRs - TEs
Past Results: AFC Championship Game - NFC Championship Game - Super Bowl
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