(Updated) 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers (WRs)
With teams getting ready for their pre-season finales tomorrow night, here are my (updated) Top 50 Fantasy WRs for 2010:
1. Andre Johnson, Texans: For me, this is (still) a no-brainer. Johnson, who was the third overall pick in 2003, has posted back-to-back 100-reception, 1,500-yard seasons.
2. Calvin Johnson, Lions: After a stellar sophomore campaign (78-1331-12) with Dan Orlovsky as his quarterback, MegaTron battled nagging injuries in 2009 and even missed two games. Provided he stays healthy, however, the sky is the limit in 2010 for this gifted athlete.
3. Randy Moss, Patriots: Moss has scored 47 touchdowns over the past three seasons, however, all five of his 100-yard games last year came in the first nine weeks of the season. Whether or not you questioned his motivation in the second-half last year, Moss is entering his contract year and is looking as good as ever.
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts: Only three players (two receivers) finished the season with at least 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. If you own Wayne, hope for a few Colts' early-season losses so Wayne plays more than a half in your fantasy championship game.
5. Miles Austin, Cowboys: The list? Andre Johnson and Wes Welker. The topic? Receivers who had more yards than Austin in 2009. The biggest concern for Austin will be the competition for targets with Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Roy Williams and the running game.
6.Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: Over the past three seasons, Fitzgerald has caught a combined 293 passes for 3,932 yards and 35 touchdowns. With Kurt Warner retiring this off-season, however, the person (either Matt Leinart or Derek Anderson) getting him the ball is a huge downgrade.
7. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins: Marshall has had 100+ receptions and 1,100+ yards for three consecutive seasons. Marshall has a fat new contract and should be happy. Then again, he's a head case as his punting reinactment illustrated earlier in camp.
8. Roddy White, Falcons: Only Andre Johnson (171) had more targets than did White (165) in 2009. In the past three seasons, White has been consistent: 83, 88 and 85 receptions as well as 1,202, 1,382 and 1,153 yards, respectively. Even better, he set a career-high in TDs (11) in 2009.
9. DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Despite his size, Jackson is one of most explosive big-play receivers in the league. He ranked second in yards (18.5) per reception and first in the league in receptions of 40 yards or more (10).
10. Greg Jennings, Packers: From weeks 4-14, Jennings had only one 100-yard game. In his final four games (counting playoffs), Jennings had three 100-yard games.
11. Marques Colston, Saints: Colston is the best receiver in the league's (statistically) most explosive offense (31.9 points and 403.8 yards per game). Quarterback Drew Brees spreads the ball around, however, as Colston had less than five receptions in half of his games, which can easily frustrate a fantasy owner.
12. Anquan Boldin, Ravens: The physical receiver should be a perfect fit into his new offense as he settles in as the Ravens' No. 1 receiver.
13. Steve Smith, Panthers: Although Smith had a down year in 2009, he posted better stats with Matt Moore (not Jake Delhomme) under center. In his final four games of the season, he finished with 19 receptions for 378 yards and three touchdowns.
14. Steve Smith, Giants: Smith finished fourth in the NFL in targets (157) in 2009 and set career highs in receptions (107), yards (1,220) and TDs (seven). The best thing about Smith was his consistency -- four (or more) receptions 15 times and at least 40 yards receiving every week.
15. Wes Welker, Patriots: Despite missing two games, Welker led the NFL in receptions (123) and finished second in receiving yards (1,348). Welker's 2010 fantasy value will largely be determined by how fully he returns from off-season ACL surgery. But so far (off-season rehab, training camp, pre-season, etc.), so good. He could turn out to be the biggest bargain of top-tier receivers.
16. Michael Crabtree, 49ers: Despite being the second receiver drafted in 2009, Crabtree led all rookies in receiving yards (56.8) per game. Plus, he had four (or more) receptions in nine of his 11 games played. Imagine if he had attended training camp and learned the whole offense. He will this off-season.
17. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals: Ochocinco bounced back in 2009 with 72 receptions for 1,047 yards and nine touchdowns. However, quarterback Carson Palmer threw for only 1,262 yards, seven TDs and six interceptions in the final eight games of 2010. Ochocinco's splits: 1st half (44-639-5) vs 2nd half (28-408-4). Coincidence?
18. Hakeem Nicks, Giants: Of rookies, only Michael Crabtree (56.8 yards per game) averaged more receiving yards per game than Nicks (56.4 ypg). Only Austin Collie caught more TDs (seven). And only Mike Wallace had more 40-yard catches (six) than Nicks.
19. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars: MSW's strong start (minus a missed game due to a missed curfew for a bootie call) was followed up with an equally weak ending to his second season. In his final six games, Sims-Walker had only 16 receptions for 175 yards and one touchdown (or 3.8 fantasy points per game during that stretch).
20. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Despite a down (suspension-shortened) season, Bowe had 995 and 1,022 in his previous (first) two NFL seasons.
21. Hines Ward, Steelers: Ward, who said he will retire if he wins a third Super Bowl this year, had 95 receptions (tied for second-most in his career) and 1,167 (second-most) last season. Despite being a year older (like me, unfortunately), Ward could see even more targets than last year without Santonio Holmes in Pittsburgh.
22. Pierre Garcon, Colts: Garcon led NFL receivers with 21 post-season receptions for 251 yards and two touchdowns.
23. Donald Driver, Packers: Although he just turned 35 in February, Driver had his sixth consecutive season with at least 70 receptions and 1,000 yards in 2009. He's not flashy, there's no "upside," but he's consistent in a great offense with Greg Jennings there to get the double-teams.
24. Mike Wallace, Steelers: Wallace, a big-play receiver who led the NFL in yards (19.4) per reception, will see an expanded role within the offense with the departure of Santonio Holmes.
25. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles: After a solid rookie campaign (55-762-4), Maclin should continue to develop in 2010.
26. Percy Harvin, Vikings: Harvin, the Vikings' first-round pick in 2009, led rookie receivers in receiving yards (790) and was tied for second in touchdowns (six). His ongoing battle with migraines worry me as they can strike at any time, but the absence of Sidney Rice for the majority of the fantasy season boosts his value.
27. Santana Moss, Redskins: In the past two seasons with Jason Campbell as quarterback, Moss has caught 149 passes for 1,946 yards. With the off-season upgrade at quarterback, the fourth 1,000-yard season of his career is within his reach.
28. Derrick Mason, Ravens: With Boldin in the mix, it's hard to envision Mason finishing 13th in the league in targets (like he did in 2009). But he finished with 1,000+ yards for the third consecutive year and for the eighth time in the past nine seasons. Many will shy away from Mason on draft day, but I ain't scared.
29. Vincent Jackson, Chargers: He will miss three games (due to suspension), another three if he doesn't sign his tender by September 4th and potentially more due to his contract situation. Despite putting up career numbers (68-1167-9) and being a top-ten receiver based on talent, the uncertainty around his status makes VJ the ultimate risk-reward receiver.
30. Robert Meachem, Saints: Meachem needs to be more consistent, but the former first-round pick had a second-half split of 32-426-6. Then again, he disappeared in the post-season (4-25-0). In other words, he needs to be more consistent.
31. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks: Although he finished with 79 receptions (tied for 13th in the NFL), Houshmandzadeh finished with only 911 yards and three touchdowns. He has set a "minimum" goal of catching 100 passes in 2010. Since I don't have faith in T.J., he's at 31. If he does catch 100 passes (but he won't), he'd be a steal (but he won't).
32. Devin Aromashodu, Bears: In the final five games of the season, Aromashodu ranked 15th in the NFL in targets (41). And he caught 22 passes for 282 yards and four touchdowns in the final four games of the season. Even though Devin Hester and Johnny Knox are the named starters, I expect Aromashodu to be the most productive.
33. Malcom Floyd, Chargers: Floyd had his best game of the season in his last one (nine catches for 140 yards) and his second half (32 catches for 496 yards) was considerably better than his first half (13 catches for 280 yards). More importantly, Vincent Jackson will miss three, six or more games in 2010 and Floyd moves into the No. 1 slot. (Also, teammate Legedu Naanee is a sleeper that I like a lot for 2010.)
34. Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Cornerback Mike Jenkins says that he will be a "big-time receiver" someday. When will that "someday" be? That's the question. Bryant, who suffered a high-ankle sprain, will play in the team's fourth pre-season game on Thursday, but he may not find his groove until mid-season. In keeper leagues, Bryant's value is much higher than his ranking on this list.
35. Johnny Knox, Bears: Lots of folks like Knox as the Bears receiver to own. I would prefer Aromashodu (see #32), but the speedy receiver from Abilene Christian should flourish in the vertical-passing attack of a Mike Martz' offense.
36. Steve Breaston, Cardinals: With Anquan Boldin out for a few games in 2008, Breaston finished that season with 77 receptions for 1,006 yards. Although Breaston will have an expanded role in 2010 with the off-season departure of Boldin (plus), the team lost Kurt Warner to retirement (minus).
37. Santonio Holmes, Jets: After a breakout campaign (79-1248-5) in 2009, Holmes will serve a four-game suspension in 2010 and moves to a run-first offense with a young but developing (unless you've seen the pre-season games) quarterback.
38. Julian Edelman, Patriots: In the three games that Welker missed (counting the last game when he tore his ACL), Edelman had 21 receptions for 221 yards.
39. Nate Burleson, Lions: As the Lions' No. 2 receiver across from MegaTron, Burleson will mostly see single coverage. In 13 games last year, he finished with 812 yards and 62.5 yards per game average would have projected to 1,000 yards flat over a 16-game season.
40. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets: Cotchery was the favorite target of Mark Sanchez in 2009. That's likely to change when Santonio Holmes comes off suspension. In either case, Cotchery posted four-year lows in receptions (57) and yards (821) in 2009. He's still solid if not spectacular.
41. Braylon Edwards, Jets: In 2007, Edwards had a breakout year (80-1289-16). In the two seasons since then, Edwards has combined stats of only 100 receptions for 1,553 yards and seven touchdowns.
42. Devin Hester, Bears: Without playing in three games last year, Hester posted respectable numbers (57-757-3). That's a pace of 932 yards over a 16-game season. This off-season, he worked worth the guy who flourished in his role within Mike Martz's offense (Isaac Bruce).
43. Terrell Owens, Bengals: Batman to Ochocinco's Robin, in name only, T.O. is past his prime. Carson Palmer has talked up his receivers during the pre-season, but I think Palmer will struggle again (like he did last year).
44. Sidney Rice, Vikings: A waiver-wire pick-up for many last year, Rice had more receiving yards than all but three receivers in 2009. Many tied Rice's 2010 fantasy value to Favre's return (health). Instead, Rice elected for hip surgery and will miss roughly half of the season. How effective will he be when he returns?
45. Eddie Royal, Broncos: The departure of Brandon Marshall to Miami creates a void at receiver for the Broncos. They've drafted Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and Jabar Gaffney had a great week 17 with Marshall benched, but I believe the third-year player bounces back in 2010. He had 91 receptions as a rookie in 2008.
46. Kenny Britt, Titans: Britt is a big (6-foot-3, 218 pounds), athletic receiver and should continue to improve in his second season. But his off-season of dropping passes and showing to the Titans' workout program out of shape has earned him the nickname "Question Mark."
47. Bernard Berrian, Vikings: The injury to Sidney Rice is a huge boon to Berrian, who will get a lot more targets in 2010 despite the addition of Javon Walker and Greg Camarillo. Once Rice returns (provided he's healthy), Berrian's fantasy value will suffer.
48. Austin Collie, Colts: Collie tied Minnesota rookie Percy Harvin for the lead among rookies in receptions (60) and no rookie receiver had more touchdowns (seven) than Collie. How will the return of Anthony Gonzalez affect his value?
49. Lee Evans, Bills: In half of his games, Evans had two or less receptions. In half of his games, Evans had 35 yards or less. No thanks. You can have him.
50. Jabar Gaffney, Broncos: Pre-season stats are overrated, but Gaffney has had a strong pre-season (11th in receiving yards) in addition to a strong Week 17 (14 catches for 213 yards) last year. In other words, he's played well without Brandon Marshall in the lineup. I like Eddie Royal a little better, but Gaffney should get a bunch of targets from Kyle Orton and be a solid fantasy contributor.
Also, check out our other 2010 Fantasy Football rankings: Top 25 QBs | Top 40 RBs | Top 20 TEs | Top 150 Cheat Sheet
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