(Updated) 2010 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs (RBs)
Through three pre-season games, here are my (updated) Top 40 Fantasy RBs for 2010:
1. Chris Johnson, Titans: 2,006 yards. 11 straight 100-yard games. While those numbers would be nearly impossible to repeat, Johnson can take it to the house on any given play with his 4.24 speed. Plus, Johnson is now greedy (not hungry): "I graduated from hungry to greedy, and all I want is more.”
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: In three NFL seasons, Peterson has rushed for 1,300+ yards and 10+ touchdowns every year. His fumbling issues are well-documented, but he also had his best season as a receiver (43 receptions for 436) in 2009. And with Sidney Rice out for roughly half of this season, those receiving numbers should increase.
3. Ray Rice, Ravens: Rice led RBs in receptions (78) and receiving yards (702) in 2009. He was one of only two backs to have over 2000 yards from scrimmage.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: In his first season as the featured back, Pocket Hercules delivered with 1,391 rushing yards, 374 receiving yards on 53 receptions and 16 combined touchdowns. Although he denies he's had knee surgery, he has been shut down for the rest of the pre-season.
5. Michael Turner, Falcons: An ankle injury in week 10 essentially wiped out the rest of his season, but he was getting into a groove before the injury (428 rushing yards on 47 carries (9.1 YPC) and three touchdowns in 2 1/2 games). In his 27 games as a Falcon, Turner has rushed for more touchdowns (27) than he has receptions (11).
6. Frank Gore, 49ers: With two first-round picks in the 2010 NFL Draft, the 49ers drafted two offensive linemen (Trent Williams and Mike Iupati), which is obviously a benefit to Gore. In addition to rushing for over 1,000 yards in the past four years, he has also averaged 52 receptions per season during that span.
7. Steven Jackson, Rams: With the Rams' lack of offensive weapons to complement Jackson, opposing defenses know what is coming. Yet Jackson still finished second in the NFL in rushing in 2009 despite being hampered by back issues for the second half of the season.
8. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: Starting in week four, Mendenhall rushed for 1,068 yards and seven TDs in the final 13 games of the season. (That's a 1300-yard pace.) Fortunately, the rumors of a broken arm were false.
9. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: Despite missing three games last year, Williams has rushed for 2,632 yards and scored 27 touchdowns (25 rushing and two receiving) in the past two seasons. His only drawback? Backfield mate Jonathan Stewart has rushed for close to 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns during that same span. Williams is in a contract year.
10. Shonn Greene, Jets: The Jets replaced one thirty-something back with another, but it's Greene's team now (even if LaDainian Tomlinson isn't aware of that). And with arguably the league's best line in front of him, Greene could have a monster season.
Speaking of Shonn Greene, he's one of the five players listed for our Week 1 Fantasy Football Contest.
11. Cedric Benson, Bengals: Only Tennessee's Chris Johnson finished with a higher yards-per-game average than Benson (96.2 ypg).
12. Ryan Grant, Packers: As the runner for one of the league's best aerial assaults, Grant should continue to see a lot of seven-men fronts and open lanes to run. Only four RBs rushed for more yards (1,253) and TDs (11) than Grant in 2009 yet many overlook Grant on draft day.
13. Ryan Mathews, Chargers: Not only does he have the skills (NCAA's second-leading rusher), Mathews steps into a nearly ideal situation to flourish. Chargers coach Norv Turner expects Mathews to get around 250 carries, which would have put him in the top ten in 2009. Despite a little vomiting before his first pre-season game, so far, so good for the rookie.
14. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: We saw what The Daily Show could do without DeAngelo Williams in the lineup: (440 rushing yards in final three games). Provided both backs are healthy for all of 2010, I would expect to see a split of 55-45 in favor of Williams. That said, another 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown season is within reason for Stewart.
15. Beanie Wells, Cardinals: With the retirement of Kurt Warner and departure of Anquan Boldin (to Baltimore), the Cardinals will likely rely more on their running game than they have in years past. And Wells, who had 338 rushing/receiving yards and three touchdowns in his last four games, should be ready to capitalize.
16. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs: Charles had a Chris Johnson-esque second half (968 rushing yards, 158 receiving yards and eight total TDs) including a record-setting performance in the finale. If it weren't for the addition of Thomas Jones, who rushed for a career-high 1,402 yards in 2009, Charles would be in my top ten.
17. Pierre Thomas, Saints: In 14 games, Thomas finished with 1,095 (793 rushing and 302 receiving) yards from scrimmage in 2009 and averaged 5.4 yards per rushing attempt. Thomas was listed as one of the ten most underrated players in the NFL by Yahoo! Sports Doug Farrar.
18. Jahvid Best, Lions: The Lions moved back up into the first round to select Best. Teammate Nate Burleson said: "You hear about how explosive Best is and then you see him catch a ball in the flat, stick his foot in the ground and get up field like a Mustang."
19 LeSean McCoy, Eagles: The Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook era is over in Philly. In the eight games that Westbrook missed in 2009, McCoy rushed for 473 yards and four TDs and caught 22 passes for 163 yards. A combined rushing/receiving total of 1,300+ seems reasonable for 2010.
20. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: Moreno led all rookies in rushing (947 yards) and finished 16th overall even though he failed to go over the 50-yard mark in seven of his 16 games. Although Moreno has missed the past month with a hamstring injury, he should return to practice this week, per Mike Klis of the Denver Post.
21. Matt Forte, Bears: This consensus top-five pick in 2009 was arguably fantasy football's biggest disappointment. With newcomers Mike Martz and Chester Taylor in town, 2010 could be more like 2009 (929 rushing yards) than 2008 (1,238 rushing yards) for Forte. Or Forte, who has looked quicker and more explosive, could bounce back. After the top 20 backs are drafted, Forte could provide plenty of upside.
22. Felix Jones, Cowboys: Jones, who is a big-play threat, could become the starter in 2010. In two playoff games, Jones rushed for 217 yards on 30 carries (average of 7.2 YPC). More likely than not, however, he and Marion Barber will be fairly close in fantasy production.
23. Joseph Addai, Colts: Addai, who finished sixth among RBs in receptions (51), also scored 13 times in 15 games. That's the good news. However, only the Cardinals (365) had fewer rushing attempts as a team than the Colts (366) and it's likely that back-up Donald Brown, who missed five games as a rookie, will get a larger workload than 78 carries (his 2009 total) -- at the expense of Addai -- in 2010.
24 Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: When healthy, he's elite. However, he's missed 20 games in his five-year career. Therefore, his best season was 2006 when he finished with only 1,008 rushing yards. Feeling lucky?
25. Brandon Jacobs, Giants: After back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, Jacobs rushed for only 835 yards despite getting a career-high 224 carries. Even worse, his TD production dropped from 15 in 2008 to five in 2009. And Ahmad Bradshaw could get a bigger chunk of the workload in 2010. Considering all those, I'm not exactly sure why I expect a bounce-back season for Jacobs. But I kind-of do.
26. Marion Barber, Cowboys: Perhaps a reduced role for MBIII in favor of Felix Jones may hurt his fantasy value. That said, Barber has flourished before in the role of "closer." Todd Archer of the Dallas Morning News projected, based on a 30-carry total, a split of "Jones 15, Barber 10, Choice 5."
27. Jerome Harrison, Browns: In the final three weeks of the season, Harrison had 561 yards and five touchdowns on 106 carries. Then again, he had only 88 carries for 301 yards and no scores in his other 11 games played. With rookie Montario Hardesty making his pre-season debut on Thursday, perhaps we will get a better idea of how carries will be split between Harrison and Hardesty then.
28. Fred Jackson, Bills: When he received the bulk of work (over Marshawn Lynch), Jackson flourished as one of only 15 running backs to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark helped by a 212-yard performance in the season finale. He also finished tenth among RBs in receptions (46). But he will have to share the workload with rookie C.J. Spiller, the speedster from Clemson.
29. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: Bradshaw averaged 1.1 yards per carry more than Jacobs and scored two more touchdowns despite getting 61 fewer carries. Bradshaw had off-season surgery on his feet and ankle, but he says that he feels "10 times better." I expect big things from Bradshaw in 2010. In fact, I expect him to outrush his backfield mate. And the better news is you can use a later-round pick to select Bradshaw than you'll need to draft Jacobs.
30. C.J. Spiller, Bills: Like the guy that tops this list, Spiller is a big-play threat with world-class speed that can take it to the house on any given play. And with the injuries to Jackson and Marshawn Lynch, Spiller has taken his opportunity to flourish and has run with it in the pre-season.
31. Arian Foster, Texans: Foster had a strong finish to the 2009 season (216 yards and three touchdowns in final two games). Before Ben Tate suffered a season-ending injury, however, I declared Foster an "undervalued" fantasy running back on our fantasy podcast as we was being drafted after the top 50 backs. Since then, Tate was lost for the season and Foster's posted the first-ever 100-yard performance for a Texans running back in the pre-season.
32. Ricky Williams, Dolphins: He proved he can post big numbers if (or when) Ronnie Brown misses action. But with Brown in the lineup, Williams had 751 yards from scrimmage and seven TDs in nine games. (That's a 16-game pace of 1,335 yards and 12 TDs backing up Brown.)
33. Thomas Jones, Chiefs: Thirty-something running backs tend to see precipitous declines in production, but Jones posted career-highs in rushing last year. ESPN blogger Bill Williamson expects a 60-40 split in carries favoring Charles over Jones and think that is a reasonable expectation despite Jones topping the team's depth chart.
34. Michael Bush, Raiders: Bush led the Raiders in rushing in 2009 with 589 yards. With Justin Fargas no longer in the mix, there will be more carries for Bush and Darren McFadden. Despite McFadden's potential, Bush has produced (career 4.6 yards per carry) when given a chance. He was scheduled to have thumb surgery Monday, but it looks likely that he'll be ready for the season opener.
35. Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers: Cadillac had a solid (and, more importantly, healthy) season. His best month of the season was his last as he rushed for 301 yards in four December games with an average of 4.7 yards per carry.
36. Clinton Portis, Redskins: Despite suffering a sprained ankle, Portis will be the Redskins running back that gets the majority of work and he provides some value as a guy many others in your league will try to avoid.
37. Montario Hardesty, Browns: The Browns traded up to draft the physical runner and he impressed the coaching staff during the off-season workouts. However, he will finally make his pre-season debut on Thursday. For now, Harrison looks like the Browns back to own in fantasy leagues.
38. Justin Forsett, Seahawks: Despite getting only 114 carries, Forsett had 969 yards from scrimmage (619 rushing and 350 receiving) in 2009. With Julius Jones out for a three-game stretch last year, Forsett had 368 yards from scrimmage in weeks 10-12. That said, Leon Washington started the team's third pre-season game and could be the team's feature back. And I wouldn't rule out the team ultimately pursuing a back like Marshawn Lynch at some point this season.
39. Steve Slaton, Texans: Arian Foster looks like he's the guy in Houston. But Gary Kubiak is the coach and it's hard to believe that one back has a lock on the job with Kubiak calling the shots (provided Slaton doesn't fumble much). In 11 games last year, Slaton racked up 854 combined yards and scored seven touchdowns. That's a 16-game pace of 1,242 yards and ten touchdowns. Plus, he had 1,659 combined yards and 10 TDs in his 2008 rookie campaign.
40. Darren McFadden, Raiders: I like Bush more than McFadden for 2010, but it's hard for me to write off the potential of the former fourth-overall draft pick. Then again, the Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell with the first overall pick in 2007 and Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh overall pick in 2009.
Also, check out our other 2010 Fantasy Football rankings: Top 25 QBs | Top 50 WRs | Top 20 TEs | Top 150 Cheat Sheet
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