The Weekly Blitz - Week 17
In picking NFL games against the spread (ATS), 2009 wasn't quite the year that 2008 was for me. After going 31-18-2 ATS in 2008, I'm only two games above .500 this year.
The challenge of picking winners in week 17 is determining the motivation and intention of the teams. That said, all of my picks involve teams that will follow the Herm Edwards rule, i.e., "you play to win the game" as opposed to trying to keep their players healthy heading into the post-season.
Here are my week 17 picks:
Ravens -10.5 (over Raiders): The Ravens face a must-win situation against the Raiders, who are still the league's most dysfunctional franchise despite some impressive wins this year (Steelers, Bengals, Eagles, etc.). With a renewed focus on the ground (109 rushes to 81 passes in the past three weeks), Ray Rice and the Ravens should be able to exploit the Raiders rush defense that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. The Ravens have beat bad teams handily this year and week 17 won't be any different as I predicted a 31-10 victory at FootBaltimore.com.
Vikings -7.5 (over Giants): The Giants will be without Brandon Jacobs, who's had a disappointing year. And Ralph Vacchiano of the NY Daily News says of Ahmad Bradshaw, "I don’t expect him to play, but if he does I think you can expect just a few carries for him..." Meanwhile, the Vikings, who have lost three of their past four games, need to win to clinch a first-round bye and to establish some momentum heading into the playoffs, which should not be discounted.
Steelers -3 (over Dolphins): The Steelers have won two close games against good teams and are possibly building some momentum heading into a playoff run. While they need some help to make the playoffs, they need to take care of business first by beating the Dolphins in a 1 p.m. matchup. Hines Ward says he will play and Santonio Holmes is on an eight-game streak of 74+ receiving yards. With an inexperienced Dolphins secondary, the Steelers should be able to air it out. In addition, Ricky Williams is questionable with a shoulder injury.
