The Weekly Blitz - Week 13
Every week, I pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS) and here are my week 13 picks:
Patriots -4.5 (over Dolphins): The Patriots are coming off a tough loss on a short week. And they are on the road against a division rival. The Saints held Tom Brady and the Patriots to no passing scores. But the Dolphins are coming off a disappointing loss as well against the Bills. Brady should bounce back against the league's 23rd-ranked pass defense. Meanwhile Laurence Maroney has scored a rushing TD (or two) in six consecutive games. The last time the Patriots lost two consecutive games was in November 2006.
Titans +6.5 (over Colts): I'm not necessarily calling for an outright upset here (although I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen). With the exception of a meaningless week 17 game last year, here are the point differentials in games Vince Young has started against the Colts: -1, +3, -2, +6. There's nothing wrong with winning close games, especially when you're 11-0, but the Colts have engineered come-from-behind victories in the fourth quarter in their past five games. With Chris Johnson running all over opponents (six straight games with 125+ yards), the Colts playing close games recently and the historical trend of close games in this series, give me the points.
Vikings -3.0 (over Cardinals): The Vikings are as complete as any team in football. With five weeks to go, they rank fifth in total offense and eighth in total defense. And despite all the will-he-or-won't-he-return drama, Brett Favre is a legitmate MVP contender. He's tied with Peyton Manning for second in TD passes (24) behind Drew Brees (27), but Favre has thrown only three interceptions. I expect Kurt Warner to return this week, but the Cardinals' pass offense is considerably less explosive with Matt Leinart under center.
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