The Weekly Blitz - Week 12
Last week was my worst week of the season in picking games against the spread (ATS) as I had my first O-for of the season. My goose egg dropped my 2009 cumulative record to 18-15 ATS.
With no help from me, collectively, we (our four "handicappers") went 7-5 in week 11 to improve to 72-59-1 (55%) versus the spread on the season.
Reader beware but here are my week 12 picks:
Dolphins -3 (over Bills): What the Dolphins do well the Bills do poorly. Despite having one of the league's best pass defenses, the Bills rank 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (165.9 ypg) and rushing touchdowns (15). Even without Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have an explosive running game as evidenced by Ricky Williams' three-TD (two rushing, one receiving) performance in prime-time against the Panthers last week. Winners of five of their past seven, Miami has gotten itself back on track and into the playoff picture while the Bills are conducting seven-hour interviews with potential coaching replacements.
Seahawks -3 (over Rams): The Seahawks are bad. The Rams are bad. But in this case, "bad" does not equal "bad." Granted the Rams are playing better lately, but if you remember, the Seahawks beat the Rams 28-0 in their first matchup in week 1. The Rams' offense is one-dimensional with Steven Jackson and the Rams will be without QB Marc Bulger this week and perhaps the rest of the season. Facing eight-men fronts, it really is amazing that Jackson is second in the NFL in rushing yards. But the Seahawks have a much more balanced team than the Rams and should be able to put this one away early.
Patriots +1.5 (over Saints): The Saints face their biggest challenge to their unbeaten streak when they host the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Saints have scored 24 points or more every game this season, but they have allowed five of their past six opponents to score 20+ points and they haven't yet faced an offense nearly as explosive as the Patriots' offense. Tom Brady has thrown for 300+ yards in five consecutive games. During that five-game span, the Patriots have held four of their opponents to 17 points or less. The lone exception was Indianapolis, who scored 21 of their 35 points in the fourth quarter. With two high-powered offenses, I'm taking the defense that has been more consistent lately.
To view the picks of all of our "handicappers" for week 12, click here.
