The Weekly Blitz - Week 7
Every week, I pick three games against the spread (ATS) and last week was a good week (3-0 ATS). That improves my 2009 record to 10-8 although it pales in comparison to last year's record (31-18-2 ATS).
I like the matchups this week more than I have in previous weeks and here are my week 7 picks:
Steelers -5 (over Vikings): The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 straight games and their run defense ranks second in the NFL. The Vikings are tied for the NFL lead in sacks (21). Although both teams are known for their great defenses, this game features the leader in passing yards (Ben Roethlisberger), rushing yards (Adrian Peterson) and receiving yards (Hines Ward) through six weeks. The Vikings are tied for second in turnover differential (+8) and Brett Favre has only two interceptions. For a QB that has averaged 1.12 INT's/game throughout his illustrious yet lengthy career, however, a regression to the mean is long overdue. Take the Steelers and give the points.
Falcons +4 (over Cowboys): The rule of thumb is that home-field advantage equates to three points. Therefore, this spread implies that the Cowboys are better (albeit by one point, but better nonetheless) than the Falcons on a neutral field. Really? As a Cowboys' fan, I'd like to believe that. But I can't. The Cowboys are coming off a bye and have had an extra week to prepare, which makes it an uphill battle for the Falcons. That being said, the Cowboys, who have a -4 turnover differential, tend to shoot themselves in the foot. Atlanta's turnover differential is +5. Although defense isn't Atlanta's strength, they rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (15.4 ppg) and haven't given up more than 26 points in any game this season. If the Falcons don't win this game outright, they should at least keep this game close.
Giants -7 (over Cardinals): Not only are the Cardinals one-dimensional on offense (5th in passing, 31st in rushing), they are one-dimensional on defense as well. They lead the NFL in rushing defense (59.6 ypg) and have held Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton and Frank Gore to 66, 39 and 30 rushing yards, respectively. However, their pass defense has allowed 265.2 passing yards per game, which is worse than every team except Tennessee. On the other hand, the Giants are more balanced with the following rankings: rush offense (5), pass offense (12), run defense (18) and pass defense (1). After an embarrassing loss to New Orleans, the Giants will come out swinging after last week's "Big Queasy" performance. In the past three years, the Giants are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in games versus NFC West opponents.
I like the matchups this week more than I have in previous weeks and here are my week 7 picks:
Steelers -5 (over Vikings): The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 24 straight games and their run defense ranks second in the NFL. The Vikings are tied for the NFL lead in sacks (21). Although both teams are known for their great defenses, this game features the leader in passing yards (Ben Roethlisberger), rushing yards (Adrian Peterson) and receiving yards (Hines Ward) through six weeks. The Vikings are tied for second in turnover differential (+8) and Brett Favre has only two interceptions. For a QB that has averaged 1.12 INT's/game throughout his illustrious yet lengthy career, however, a regression to the mean is long overdue. Take the Steelers and give the points.
Falcons +4 (over Cowboys): The rule of thumb is that home-field advantage equates to three points. Therefore, this spread implies that the Cowboys are better (albeit by one point, but better nonetheless) than the Falcons on a neutral field. Really? As a Cowboys' fan, I'd like to believe that. But I can't. The Cowboys are coming off a bye and have had an extra week to prepare, which makes it an uphill battle for the Falcons. That being said, the Cowboys, who have a -4 turnover differential, tend to shoot themselves in the foot. Atlanta's turnover differential is +5. Although defense isn't Atlanta's strength, they rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (15.4 ppg) and haven't given up more than 26 points in any game this season. If the Falcons don't win this game outright, they should at least keep this game close.
Giants -7 (over Cardinals): Not only are the Cardinals one-dimensional on offense (5th in passing, 31st in rushing), they are one-dimensional on defense as well. They lead the NFL in rushing defense (59.6 ypg) and have held Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton and Frank Gore to 66, 39 and 30 rushing yards, respectively. However, their pass defense has allowed 265.2 passing yards per game, which is worse than every team except Tennessee. On the other hand, the Giants are more balanced with the following rankings: rush offense (5), pass offense (12), run defense (18) and pass defense (1). After an embarrassing loss to New Orleans, the Giants will come out swinging after last week's "Big Queasy" performance. In the past three years, the Giants are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in games versus NFC West opponents.
