The Weekly Blitz - Week 5
We're a quarter of the way through the NFL season and I'm disappointed with my mediocre performance (6-6, .500) in picking games against the spread (ATS) thus far. Although these picks are for entertainment purposes only, it was more entertaining last year as I finished 63.3% ATS.
Here's to a more "entertaining" week in week 5:
Patriots -3 (over Broncos): The Denver Broncos are 4-0 and remain as one of only two unbeaten teams in the AFC. Yet for a second week in a row they are home underdogs. Despite the initial criticisms and challenges Josh McDaniels faced, he and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan have done a great coaching job in the Mile High city. Kyle Orton (QB rating 97.7) has outplayed Jay Cutler (QB rating 89.3) and the Broncos lead the NFL in scoring defense (6.5 points per game). The Broncos are second in the total defense (239.8 yards per game) and in sacks (15). While the Broncos are certainly better than I -- and everyone else -- thought, their level of competition has been relatively low. Although the Patriots have lost Fred Taylor for considerable time (if not the season), it appears that the Patriots offense is beginning to click as they converted three scores in five trips to the redzone against Baltimore.
Vikings -10 (over Rams): These two teams are polar opposites. The Rams are the league's worst team and Minnesota is one of the few unbeatens remaining in the NFC. Through four games, the Rams still have no rushing touchdowns and their passing offense ranks second-to-last (152.8 yards per game). The Vikings are one of two teams to not allow a rushing touchdown yet this season and lead the NFL in sacks (16). The other team to not have allowed a rushing touchdown (San Francisco) shut out the Rams 35-0 last weel. The Rams have lost three of their four games by more than 20 points. My only concern is the Vikings let up and take their opponent for granted in a short week after an emotional divisional game. But they are easily 20 points better than their opponent.
Texans +5.5 (over Cardinals): Although the numbers through four games don't show it, this game should be an old-fashioned shootout. Both the Texans and Cardinals have explosive offenses and this will be a game of high interest for many fantasy owners as both teams are stacked with talented skill players. However, the Cardinals have a one-dimensional offense as they rank second-to-last in rushing offense (60.7 yards per game). And as bad as the Texans have been against the run, they shut down the Raiders (granted, it was the Raiders) running game last week.
See all picks from The Weekly Blitz crew.
Here's to a more "entertaining" week in week 5:
Patriots -3 (over Broncos): The Denver Broncos are 4-0 and remain as one of only two unbeaten teams in the AFC. Yet for a second week in a row they are home underdogs. Despite the initial criticisms and challenges Josh McDaniels faced, he and defensive coordinator Mike Nolan have done a great coaching job in the Mile High city. Kyle Orton (QB rating 97.7) has outplayed Jay Cutler (QB rating 89.3) and the Broncos lead the NFL in scoring defense (6.5 points per game). The Broncos are second in the total defense (239.8 yards per game) and in sacks (15). While the Broncos are certainly better than I -- and everyone else -- thought, their level of competition has been relatively low. Although the Patriots have lost Fred Taylor for considerable time (if not the season), it appears that the Patriots offense is beginning to click as they converted three scores in five trips to the redzone against Baltimore.
Vikings -10 (over Rams): These two teams are polar opposites. The Rams are the league's worst team and Minnesota is one of the few unbeatens remaining in the NFC. Through four games, the Rams still have no rushing touchdowns and their passing offense ranks second-to-last (152.8 yards per game). The Vikings are one of two teams to not allow a rushing touchdown yet this season and lead the NFL in sacks (16). The other team to not have allowed a rushing touchdown (San Francisco) shut out the Rams 35-0 last weel. The Rams have lost three of their four games by more than 20 points. My only concern is the Vikings let up and take their opponent for granted in a short week after an emotional divisional game. But they are easily 20 points better than their opponent.
Texans +5.5 (over Cardinals): Although the numbers through four games don't show it, this game should be an old-fashioned shootout. Both the Texans and Cardinals have explosive offenses and this will be a game of high interest for many fantasy owners as both teams are stacked with talented skill players. However, the Cardinals have a one-dimensional offense as they rank second-to-last in rushing offense (60.7 yards per game). And as bad as the Texans have been against the run, they shut down the Raiders (granted, it was the Raiders) running game last week.
See all picks from The Weekly Blitz crew.
