The Weekly Blitz - Week 4
Every week, I pick three NFL games against the spread (ATS) for entertainment purposes only (of course). On the season, I'm off to a mediocre start (5-4 ATS), but I am ready to get back on track in week 4.
Giants -9 (over Chiefs): The Giants may have a secondary (and team in general) that's banged up, but man can they cover. In the past three seasons, the Giants are 29-11 against the spread (ATS). On the road, they are an amazing 17-3 ATS. Arrowhead may be a tough place to play and Kansas City fans are passionate. But the Chiefs are 4-12 ATS in the past three seasons. The Chiefs have put up the third-fewest offensive yards through three weeks (264.3 ypg) and only five teams have allowed more points scored (28.3 ppg) than the Chiefs.
Bengals -6 (over Browns): The Browns are bad. (Someone say, "How bad are they?") They are so bad that they've scored only one offensive touchdown in nine games. Through three games in 2009, they are averaging a league low of 218 offensive yards per game. In week four, the "Man-genius" will make a change at QB and play Derek Anderson, who threw three interceptions in the second half last week against the Ravens. The Bengals defense is tied for the NFL lead in sacks (10). The Browns have seen their quarterback get sacked 11 times, which is the second most in the league. That seems like a match made in heaven.
Packers +3.5 (over Vikings): Last week, Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 27-24 win over the 49ers on a last-second touchdown pass to Greg Lewis. That is the gun-slinging Favre at his best. So far this season, Favre has been efficient throwing five touchdowns and only one interception. The emotions are going to be running high on Monday night. Regardless of what he says, Favre wants badly to stick it to the Packers -- or specifically to Packers GM Ted Thompson. I expect Favre to try to do too much and make a few (or a lot of) mistakes. In the past three seasons (including one with Favre as QB), the Packers are 10-3 against the spread when playing division rivals.
Giants -9 (over Chiefs): The Giants may have a secondary (and team in general) that's banged up, but man can they cover. In the past three seasons, the Giants are 29-11 against the spread (ATS). On the road, they are an amazing 17-3 ATS. Arrowhead may be a tough place to play and Kansas City fans are passionate. But the Chiefs are 4-12 ATS in the past three seasons. The Chiefs have put up the third-fewest offensive yards through three weeks (264.3 ypg) and only five teams have allowed more points scored (28.3 ppg) than the Chiefs.
Bengals -6 (over Browns): The Browns are bad. (Someone say, "How bad are they?") They are so bad that they've scored only one offensive touchdown in nine games. Through three games in 2009, they are averaging a league low of 218 offensive yards per game. In week four, the "Man-genius" will make a change at QB and play Derek Anderson, who threw three interceptions in the second half last week against the Ravens. The Bengals defense is tied for the NFL lead in sacks (10). The Browns have seen their quarterback get sacked 11 times, which is the second most in the league. That seems like a match made in heaven.
Packers +3.5 (over Vikings): Last week, Brett Favre led the Vikings to a 27-24 win over the 49ers on a last-second touchdown pass to Greg Lewis. That is the gun-slinging Favre at his best. So far this season, Favre has been efficient throwing five touchdowns and only one interception. The emotions are going to be running high on Monday night. Regardless of what he says, Favre wants badly to stick it to the Packers -- or specifically to Packers GM Ted Thompson. I expect Favre to try to do too much and make a few (or a lot of) mistakes. In the past three seasons (including one with Favre as QB), the Packers are 10-3 against the spread when playing division rivals.
