2009 AFC West Prediction
Here are my predictions for the AFC West:
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Chargers Schedule | Chargers Forum)
There isn't a division in football that is more lopsided than this division. I'm certainly not going out on a limb when I say that the Chargers are going to easily run away with the AFC West this year. Last year, nagging injuries slowed LaDainian Tomlinson, who still rushed for over 1,100 yards in a down season. This pre-season, LT played as much as he had in all of his previous pre-seasons combined. That should help get him into a groove sooner than he normally does and I expect a motivated Tomlinson, who restructured his contract to avoid getting cut, to have a bounce-back year. On the defensive side of the ball, they get back LB Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman, who missed the entire 2008 season. The Chargers could have the division clinched by week 12.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2008 (T17th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Baltimore, vs Miami, at Pittsburgh, at NY Giants, vs Philadelphia, at Tennessee
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 34 (11.3 per season)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Prediction: 11-5 (Chargers Schedule | Chargers Forum)
There isn't a division in football that is more lopsided than this division. I'm certainly not going out on a limb when I say that the Chargers are going to easily run away with the AFC West this year. Last year, nagging injuries slowed LaDainian Tomlinson, who still rushed for over 1,100 yards in a down season. This pre-season, LT played as much as he had in all of his previous pre-seasons combined. That should help get him into a groove sooner than he normally does and I expect a motivated Tomlinson, who restructured his contract to avoid getting cut, to have a bounce-back year. On the defensive side of the ball, they get back LB Shawne "Lights Out" Merriman, who missed the entire 2008 season. The Chargers could have the division clinched by week 12.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2008 (T17th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs Baltimore, vs Miami, at Pittsburgh, at NY Giants, vs Philadelphia, at Tennessee
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 34 (11.3 per season)
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Prediction: 6-10 (Raiders Schedule | Raiders Forum)
For six straight seasons, the Raiders have lost 11 games or more. But they enter 2009 with a two-game winning streak and they should be better than they have been over the last half decade. Coach Tom Cable is working towards instilling a toughness -- (insert jaw-breaking joke here) -- into the Raiders' organization. While Al Davis is still making questionable moves, e.g., drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh-overall pick, I expect the Raiders to be the second-best team in the AFC West in 2009. Most recently, they added defensive lineman Richard Seymour after sending their first-round pick to New England and that will help in the immediate term.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .480 winning percentage in 2008 (T19th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs San Diego, at NY Giants, vs Philadelphia, at San Diego, at Pittsburgh, vs Baltimore
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 11 (3.7 per season)
DENVER BRONCOS
Prediction: 5-11 (Broncos Schedule | Broncos Forum)
The Broncos had the most tumultous off-season in this division by firing its long-time coach and by trading away its franchise quarterback to the Chicago Bears. And then there's the cry-baby receiver who was suspended until a week ago for conduct detrimental to the team. But Brandon Marshall is still on the team (despite his trade requests) and has a reason (his desire for a lucrative contract next off-season) to be motivated and not be a distraction. Eddie Royal is one of the league's better No. 2 receivers, the Broncos' offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and they drafted RB Knowshon Moreno in the first round. Moreno was the team's first running back drafted in the first round since Steven Sewell in 1985. But they downgraded at quarterback and their defense, which is transitioning from a 4-3 to 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, is still a weakness. The Broncos schedule starts off relatively easy (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland), but then gets very tough over the next 10 games.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .480 winning percentage in 2008 (T19th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): at San Diego, at Baltimore, vs San Diego, vs NY Giants, at Indianapolis, at Philadelphia
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 24 (8.0 per season)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Prediction: 4-12 (Chiefs Schedule | Chiefs Forum)
The Chiefs have a new general manager and a new head coach in Scott Pioli and Todd Haley, respectively. Pioli was the VP of Player Personnel for the Patriots before joining the Chiefs and he was named the NFL Excecutive of the Year multiple times by various sources. And ESPN named him the Personnel Man of the Decade. But the Chiefs enter 2009 with a little bit of controversy as well. They started a mini-trend and fired their offensive coordinator two weeks ago. (The Bucs and Bills followed suit.) Receiver Dwayne Bowe is talented -- and a bit lazy which had him on the team's second team -- but the team's offense lost All-World TE Tony Gonzalez, which means Bowe will get more attention from opposing defenses. In general, the team lacks playmakers to take some pressure off Bowe. I believe that Pioli and Haley will ultimately assemble a team that looks more like the Patriots than this team currently does. It just won't happen this year.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2008 (T17th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): at Baltimore, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, vs San Diego, vs Pittsburgh, at San Diego
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 15 (5.0 per season)
We will complete our outlook on the NFC divisions prior to this Sunday's games.
Prediction: 6-10 (Raiders Schedule | Raiders Forum)
For six straight seasons, the Raiders have lost 11 games or more. But they enter 2009 with a two-game winning streak and they should be better than they have been over the last half decade. Coach Tom Cable is working towards instilling a toughness -- (insert jaw-breaking joke here) -- into the Raiders' organization. While Al Davis is still making questionable moves, e.g., drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey with the seventh-overall pick, I expect the Raiders to be the second-best team in the AFC West in 2009. Most recently, they added defensive lineman Richard Seymour after sending their first-round pick to New England and that will help in the immediate term.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .480 winning percentage in 2008 (T19th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): vs San Diego, at NY Giants, vs Philadelphia, at San Diego, at Pittsburgh, vs Baltimore
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 11 (3.7 per season)
DENVER BRONCOS
Prediction: 5-11 (Broncos Schedule | Broncos Forum)
The Broncos had the most tumultous off-season in this division by firing its long-time coach and by trading away its franchise quarterback to the Chicago Bears. And then there's the cry-baby receiver who was suspended until a week ago for conduct detrimental to the team. But Brandon Marshall is still on the team (despite his trade requests) and has a reason (his desire for a lucrative contract next off-season) to be motivated and not be a distraction. Eddie Royal is one of the league's better No. 2 receivers, the Broncos' offensive line is one of the best in the NFL and they drafted RB Knowshon Moreno in the first round. Moreno was the team's first running back drafted in the first round since Steven Sewell in 1985. But they downgraded at quarterback and their defense, which is transitioning from a 4-3 to 3-4 defense under defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, is still a weakness. The Broncos schedule starts off relatively easy (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland), but then gets very tough over the next 10 games.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .480 winning percentage in 2008 (T19th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): at San Diego, at Baltimore, vs San Diego, vs NY Giants, at Indianapolis, at Philadelphia
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 24 (8.0 per season)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Prediction: 4-12 (Chiefs Schedule | Chiefs Forum)
The Chiefs have a new general manager and a new head coach in Scott Pioli and Todd Haley, respectively. Pioli was the VP of Player Personnel for the Patriots before joining the Chiefs and he was named the NFL Excecutive of the Year multiple times by various sources. And ESPN named him the Personnel Man of the Decade. But the Chiefs enter 2009 with a little bit of controversy as well. They started a mini-trend and fired their offensive coordinator two weeks ago. (The Bucs and Bills followed suit.) Receiver Dwayne Bowe is talented -- and a bit lazy which had him on the team's second team -- but the team's offense lost All-World TE Tony Gonzalez, which means Bowe will get more attention from opposing defenses. In general, the team lacks playmakers to take some pressure off Bowe. I believe that Pioli and Haley will ultimately assemble a team that looks more like the Patriots than this team currently does. It just won't happen this year.
Strength of Schedule: 2009 opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2008 (T17th)
2008 Playoff Teams on Schedule (6): at Baltimore, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, vs San Diego, vs Pittsburgh, at San Diego
# of Wins Past 3 Years: 15 (5.0 per season)
We will complete our outlook on the NFC divisions prior to this Sunday's games.
