Rudi Johnson: Worth the gamble?
Before the 2007 season, Rudi Johnson was the model of consistency. He rushed for exactly 12 TDs in 2004, 2005 and 2006. A logical expectation for Johnson owners in 2007 was 12. Instead, they got 3 due to several reasons including a hamstring injury that limited Rudi to 9 starts.
Heading into 2008, expectations for Johnson have been greatly reduced. In ESPN fantasy football leagues, Johnson's average draft pick (ADP) is 52.9. In Yahoo fantasy football leagues, Johnson's ADP is 96.2, more than 4 rounds lower than in ESPN leagues. Johnson appears on ESPN's Berry's Players I Hate list for 2008.
Nobody seems to love Johnson. That's partly why I do.
I'm NOT saying that Rudi Johnson will be more productive than LT, Marshawn Lynch or Brandon Jacobs. But there is plenty of value in scooping up Johnson as your 3rd or even 4th RB.
According to Geoff Hobson at Bengals.com: "Johnson says he came in last month at 225 pounds, about 10 to 15 more than last year, and the word is he's regained the pop in his swivel."
After losing guys like Eric Steinbach, the Bengals offensive line is not as good as it was when Johnson was piling up (mind you in a very boring way) 1300-1450 yards and 12 TDs year in, year out. But last year the Bengal's OL was plagued with injuries as well. The OL should be much healthier heading into 2008.
In addition, Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline named Stacy Andrews as his #1 breakout player for 2008 saying: "He went into that season as a backup, but injuries gave him 13 starts. He now goes into this season listed as the starting right tackle, ahead of 13-year veteran Willie Anderson. By season's end, he just might be the best right tackle in the AFC."
Let me be clear: I do NOT expect 1400 yards and 12 TDs from Johnson in 2008. But I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson bounces back with an 1100-yard and 9-TD season. Not a bad return for a guy snagged in the 10th round of your Yahoo Fantasy draft.
