Bigger Draft Steal: Chad Johnson or Steve Smith?
In fantasy football seasons past, Steve Smith and Chad Johnson wouldn't be available at their 2008 average draft pick slots.
Steve Smith is the 7th and 6th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 28th and 23rd, respectively.
Last year, Steve Smith didn't have the kind of season you would expect from what was most likely the #1 WR taken in your draft, especially from weeks 8-15. In that span, his best game was 72 receiving yards. He didn't have a TD during that span.
This year, Jake Delhomme is back. According to Smith, Delhomme's arm seems stronger although I'm sure Smith would probably say that he still can't be outthrown. Delhomme got hurt week 3 last year. What did Smith do weeks 1 and 2? 7 rec, 118 yds, 1 TD and 8 rec, 153 yds, 3 TDs.
Chad Johnson is the 11th and 10th WR drafted in ESPN and Yahoo Leagues, respectively. His ADP is 33rd and 32nd, respectively.
Chad cried wolf. He made some strong demands and he was (like always really) very vocal about those demands. What's Ocho Cinco's tune these days: "I love you Cincinnati". On ESPN in an interview with Stephen A. Smith, Smith asked Johnson about his relationship with Carson Palmer and Chads response was "Carson loves me".
If everything is as "normal" (I use that word loosely) with Chad and Cincy, he's been extremely consistent and extremely productive. Look at his last 3 years:
2005: 97 rec, 1432 yds, 9 TDs
2006: 87 rec, 1369 yds, 7 TDs
2007: 93 rec, 1440 yds, 8 TDs
Looking back at the 2008 fantasy season, which WR will give you the greatest opportunity to say "I told you so" to all the doubters?
Although I think both will, it will be especially so with Chad Johnson. While he'll likely be a pain in the ass for Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer all season, he's not likely to pester you or me to trade him to "The Kalamazoo Killers" or "The Steel Curtain". And if he ever did, that's a much better story than telling people you won your fantasy football league.
But imagine a draft that gets you some combo of RB-WR-RB in the 1st 3 rounds and you take Chad Johnson in the 4th round as your 2nd WR. Although the Bengals have standed their ground (which I admire), there's no chance (barring injury) that Johnson doesn't play at all. Regardless of whether Johnson plays somewhere else (although not expected) or plays with a pout, what's the least an owner can expect from him? 1000 yards and 6 TDs. That still would put him in the Top 20 (most likely). I think 1300 / 7 is most likely. But I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out and plays with a monster chip on his shoulder and puts up something like 1500 / 10. Without the off-season debacle, Johnson would have been in the top 3-4 WRs taken in drafts.
Drew Rosenhaus, Chad's agent, won't let this situation develop into what happened with T.O. in Philly. He knows firsthand how much of a mistake that would be. So, if you can take Ocho Cinco where he's currently being drafted, get ready to say "Championship".
