Inside the Numbers - Domination Index
Through 9 weeks of football, here are some observations from our Domination Index, which ranks the most to least dominant teams:
Tenneessee could easily be undefeated. They lost in week 2 to the Colts by 2 points at home and then lost to the Bucs on the road by 3 when Matt Bryant kicked a FG with 11 seconds to go. They've won every other game. All this while playing without Pacman Jones.
The Vikings are a tale of two teams. The Vikings have averaged 112.7 more rushing ypg than they've given up to lead the NFL in this category. On the other hand, they've allowed 124.7 passing ypg more than they've put up, which puts them dead last in the NFL. The consensus about AD pre-draft was that he was a better long-term player than Marshawn Lynch, but that Lynch would have a better season in 2007. Although Lynch has played well, who would've thought that Peterson would lead the NFL in rushing half-way through this season and set the single-game rushing record in the process. What a steal at 7 in last year's draft though!
Strength of schedule. Excluding the games these teams have played, the opponents of the Colts (66.1%), Broncos (64.3%) and Bears (62.5%) have won greater than 60% of their games. On the flip side, excluding the games these teams have played, the opponents of the Ravens (33.3%) and Lions (37.5%) have won less than 40% of their games. It tells me the Colts are for real and the makes me question the Lions success.
1 and 1a. The Patriots rank first in 5 of the 8 statistical categories used in our index while the Colts rank 1st in 2 of the 8 categories. (As indicated above, the Vikings lead the league in rushing differential). The Pats and Colts are 5th and 9th, respectively, in that category.
By how many points will the Cowboys and Giants beat the Lions? The Lions are 6-2 doubling their 2006 win total. Our hat's off to them. However, when they play the NFC East, they lose in grand style. Their 2 losses are by 35 and 31 points to the Eagles and Redskins, respectively. They face the Giants on the 18th and then the Cowboys on 12/9. Will they keep it close? In other words, only lose by 24 or 28?
The 49ers can't do anything right. Not only are the 49ers the worst team in the NFL according to the Domination Index, but they rank no higher than 25 in any of the 8 statistical categories that comprise our index. No other team is so bad at everything. Too bad they traded away their #1 pick.
The Saints are back. Drew Brees has thrown 11 TDs to only 1 INT in the last 4 games, which the Saints have won. In the current week, the Saints were the most upwardly mobile team in the Index climbing 12 spots and improving by 42 points. They are only a 1/2 game out of first and play only 1 team with a winning record in the second half. I think Payton deserves to win Coach of the Year if he can take a team that surprised last year and made it to the NFC Championship game, started this year 0-4 and then comes back to win the NFC South. Don't you agree...?
