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March 10, 2010

With Thomas Jones, Jamaal Charles no longer a first-round pick

It looked as though Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles was in for a HUGE season in 2010.

When given the opportunity last year, Charles flourished. In the final eight games, Charles rushed for 968 yards, which would have put him on a full-season pace just shy of 2,000 yards in a season when Tennessee's Chris Johnson became only the sixth player in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards.

Furthermore, Charles had 658 rushing yards in his final four games compared to 497 for Johnson.

The unbridled enthusiasm I had for Charles (I took him ninth overall in our early 2010 fantasy football mock draft) has been greatly diminished as the Chiefs have signed running back Thomas Jones to a two-year contract.

Jones, who was released by the Jets, ranked third in the NFL in rushing last year and set career-highs in rushing yards (1,402) and touchdowns (14) despite being 31 years old.

That said, Charles is still expected to be the featured back in the offense.

I don’t believe we’ve seen the best from Jamaal,” [coach Todd] Haley said, per Adam Teicher of the Kansas City Star. “... Jamaal has his focus set on being seen as one of the better players in the league, so he’s got a lot of drive in that direction. I’m not going to set a bar on Jamaal because each time we did that last year he kind of broke through that bar and raised it. We’re going to continue to push him hard and coach him and see how good he can be.”

Charles finished 2009 with four straight games with 20+ carries. With Jones in town, that will change in 2010. In addition, Jones will likely take the goalline carries away from Charles as well.

Jones should get around 5-10 carries per game, in which case Charles would likely get around 15 per game. And I can easily envision a scenario where the split is 50-50 in the second half.

If the Chiefs are struggling through the first half (say 2-6), I wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs gave more carries (i.e., wear and tear) to Jones to help save Charles for the future. We've seen how quickly running backs can hit the wall with the physical punishment they take on a weekly basis.

In either case, let's say that he would have received 20 carries per game without Jones and 15 carries with him. With his career average of 5.7 yards per carry, that is roughly 28.5 yards less per game for Charles. That equates to 456 less rushing yards over the course of a 16-game season.

When I do another mock draft later in the year, Charles will no longer be a first-round pick.



March 07, 2010

Leigh Bodden to visit Texans

After losing cornerback Dunta Robinson to the Atlanta Falcons via free agency, the Houston Texans will host free-agent cornerback Leigh Bodden for a visit, per John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

His visit with the Texans will be his first during the free-agency period, but the Seahawks, Steelers and Patriots are interested as well, per ESPN's Mike Reiss.

In 2009, Bodden had five interceptions including three in one game against Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez. He has 18 career interceptions in seven NFL seasons.



Fargas out; Bush or McFadden in?

In three consecutive years, the Raiders have drafted a quarterback (JaMarcus Russell - first overall), a running back (Darren McFadden - fourth overall) and a wide receiver (Darrius Heyward-Bey - seventh overall). Drafting those three positions that highly in three consecutive years should mean that the Raiders have laid a solid foundation for their offense for years to come.

It should. But it doesn't.

It's an understatement to say that all three of those three high draft picks have underperformed and underwhelmed in the brief tenure in Oakland.

Last year, the Raiders ranked second-to-last in the NFL in scoring offense (12.3 points per game) and total offense (266.1 yards per game).

They will try to build on that (lack of) success without the services of one of their best offensive players, who was released Saturday.

As expected, the Oakland Raiders have parted ways with running back Justin Fargas, who was due a roster bonus of $1.7 million tomorrow.

"Justin Fargas was a beloved Raider who performed at a high level throughout his seven seasons with the team and his contributions to the Silver and Black will always be remembered," the team said in a statement announcing the move. "We wish Justin all the best."

With Fargas sent packing, both Bush and McFadden will both get an increased role and workload within the Raiders' low-powered offense.

Of the three running backs, Bush, who led the team in rushing yards (589), was the only one to play in all 16 games. Both Fargas, who led the team in rushing yards per game (40.9), and McFadden played in only 12 games.

Provided McFadden can stay healthy, which is a big if, I would expect him to get more of the split in 2010. McFadden has played in only 25 games over two seasons with an average of only 3.9 yards per carry on 217 carries.

In the last three games of the season, however, Bush had 38 carries for 203 yards compared to 24 carries for 106 yards for McFadden.



Kampman, Jaguars agree to terms

No NFL team had fewer sacks in 2009 than the Jacksonville Jaguars (14). Furthermore, it wasn't even close as the Kansas City Chiefs, who had 22 sacks, ranked second-to-last.

But help is on the way.

The Jaguars have agreed to terms with Aaron Kampman, according to Michael C. Wright of The Florida Times-Union. However, the terms of the contract weren't available.

Kampman has seen his sack totals decline for four consecutive years from a high of 15.5 sacks, which ranked second behind Shawne Merriman's 17 sacks in 2006.

Last year, Kampman had only 3.5 sacks, but he missed seven games with a torn ACL and the Packers shifted from a 4-3 scheme to a 3-4 scheme.



March 06, 2010

Willie Parker will visit with Redskins

Free-agent running back Willie Parker will visit with the Washington Redskins, per Rick Maese of the Washington Post.

Although he is technically older (born November 11, 1980) than the incumbent running back (born September 1, 1981), Clinton Portis, there is much less wear on Parker's wheels. Portis has 2,176 career rushing attempts while Parker has 1,253.

Parker, who rushed for nearly 1,500 yards in 2006, was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers in favor of second-year back Rashard Mendenhall.

Meanwhile, Portis is one of the few running backs from last year's Redskins' squad that remains on the roster. Other running backs that won't be back include Rock Cartwright, Ladell Betts and Quinton Ganther, among others.

Last season, Portis missed the final eight games of the season after suffering a concussion and ended the year with only 494 yards and one touchdown on 124 carries.

Speaking of (or, more precisely, not speaking) of Portis' future, new Redskins coach Mike Shanahan said, “Let’s not talk about Clinton. Let’s talk about everybody on the Washington Redskins. Let’s not focus on one guy ... I want all the guys on our football team to make a commitment in the offseason to work, and work extremely hard … It’s very important to show your teammates exactly how hard you work and how dedicated you are to the program.”

If Parker ends up in Washington, I could easily see a situation where he becomes the featured back in a split with Portis, in which case he could become a viable flex option in fantasy football in 2010.



March 05, 2010

Will Brandon Marshall be a Seahawk?

In the first full day of free agency, the Seattle Seahawks have already lost their best receiver to the Detroit Lions.

However, the chances of them upgrading at the position overall looks reasonably high as they will host troubled but talented receiver Brandon Marshall, who's a restricted free agent (first-round tender), according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The Seahawks' offensive coordinator is Jeremy Bates, who was an assistant coach in Denver from 2006 to 2008.

If the Seahawks make an offer to Marshall, the Broncos would have seven days to match or they would receive the Seahawks first-round pick (sixth overall) as compensation. (The Seahawks also own the 14th overall pick, which they acquired last season from Denver.)

I'm surprised that some teams towards the bottom of the first round, such as the Ravens or the Jets, appear uninterested in Marshall. To me, it seems a no-brainer to forfeit a late first-round pick in exchange for Marshall despite his well-documented character concerns.

For three consecutive seasons, Marshall has caught 100+ passes for more than 1,100 yards each year.



Bears, Peppers agree to 6-year deal

Per ESPN's John Clayton, the Bears and free-agent defensive end Julius Peppers have reached an agreement on a six-year deal.

According to Vaughn McClure of the Chicago Tribune, the deal is believed to be worth $72 million with up to $45 million due in the first three seasons.

Peppers, who was the second overall pick in the 2002 draft, has had double-digit sacks in all but two seasons and he will help bolster a Bears' pass rush that recorded 35 sacks last year and only 28 sacks in 2008.



Dolphins have first shot at Dansby

Free-agent linebacker Karlos Dansby is set to meet with the Miami Dolphins today. However, if the Dolphins can't sign Dansby, the Cardinals will still be in the mix, according to Jason La Canfora of NFL.com.

After being franchised by the Cardinals for two consecutive seasons, Dansby is the top free-agent linebacker available this off-season and isn't limiting the teams he's willing to visit.

If the Dolphins don't sign Dansby, there is a good chance that they will use their first-round pick (12th overall) on an inside linebacker, which could limit their ability to upgrade at other key positions of need (outside linebacker, nose tackle and wide receiver), per ThePhinsider.com.

One of the teams that appeared set to bid on the free-agent linebacker was the New York Giants, who had released Antonio Pierce. However, they are unlikely to enter the bidding due to the amount of money Dansby is seeking and likely to get.

In six career NFL seasons (all in Arizona), Dansby has 559 tackles, 25.5 sacks and ten interceptions.



Colts and Brackett agree to five-year deal

The Indianapolis Colts and linebacker Gary Brackett have agreed to a five-year deal, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

As pointed out by Pro Football Talk, Brackett was the only free agent that the Colts were in danger of losing. Based on the current Collective Bargaining Agreement and their finish in the 2010 season, they won't be able to sign any unrestricted free agents since they won't be losing any first.

Vinnie Iyers of the Sporting News ranked Brackett as the third-best free agent available for this off-season behind Karlos Dansby and Julius Peppers.

Last year, Brackett had 99 tackles and one sack in 14 games. Over the past five seasons of his seven-year career, Brackett has averaged nearly 113 tackles per season.



Burleson, Lions agree to five-year contract

In the NFC North, the Detroit Lions ranked fourth of four teams in passing offense in 2009 with 216.9 passing yards per game.

While they may still rank fourth in the division in 2010, they added a weapon to their aerial attack early into free agency by signing receiver Nate Burleson to a five-year contract worth $25 million, of which $11 million is guaranteed.

Although Burleson missed three games last year, his average of 62.5 receiving yards per game was less than a yard shy of his career high 62.9 ypg in 2004.

In 2003 and 2004, Burleson played in a Minnesota offense led by Scott Linehan, who is now the Lions' offensive coordinator.

None of the Seahawks three divisional opponents (San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona) ranked in the top 20 pass defenses based on passing yards in 2009. Meanwhile, all three of the Lions' divisional opponents (Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota) rank in the top 20.

The signing of Burleson should help with the development of rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford and take some pressure off Calvin Johnson.



Peppers to visit with Bears first ... and then others?

Free-agent defensive end Julius Peppers will visit with the Chicago Bears on Friday, according to Vaughn McClure and Brad Biggs of the Chicago Sun-Times.

"It's a good sign that the Bears are getting the first visit," [Peppers' agent Carl] Carey said.

According to Jason La Canfora of NFL.com, however, Carey said there are two other possibilities.

“Of the teams that have called us, there are two other possibilities that could be worth visiting,” Carey said. “When the Bears called, they said enough to entice us to get on a plane to Chicago. Beyond that, I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Regardless of the landing spot for Peppers, he will command a huge payday. While there is no denying his ability, many question his effort and consistency.

Peppers has 81 career sacks in his eight-year career. He followed up a career-low 2.5 sacks in 2007 with a career-high 14.5 sacks in 2008.



Cromartie to Jets for third-round pick in 2011

The San Diego Chargers were eager to move cornerback Antonio Cromartie. And they now have.

I think it’s good for both parties,” said Chargers cornerback Quentin Jammer, via the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Cro got his wish, and the Chargers got their wish.”

In exchange for Cromartie, the Chargers will receive a third-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft from the Jets, which could increase to a second-round pick depending on Cromartie's playing time.

As Rich Cimini of the NY Daily News points out, the Jets will get a bargain if they get the 2007 version of Cromartie, who intercepted ten passes that season.

Pairing the 2007 version of Cromartie with Darrelle Revis, who I believe is the league's best cornerback, would create the league's top cornerback tandem and provide the Jets' defense with even greater flexibility to be disruptive.

Or they could get the whining, matador-style tackling version that coincidentally wanted no part of Jets running back Shonn Greene in the AFC playoffs.

Last year, Cromartie, who was the Chargers' first-round pick in 2006, had only three interceptions and 33 tackles.



Panthers release Jake Delhomme

One off-season removed from signing him to a long-term deal, the Carolina Panthers released quarterback Jake Delhomme, per the Charlotte Observer.

Considering his six-turnover implosion in the Panthers' only playoff game two seasons ago, it was a bit of a surprise that the Panthers signed Delhomme to such an expensive extension. And now that they released him, it is a bit of surprise as well, but the move prevents a salary-cap hit in a year that is uncapped.

That said, the Panthers will still owe Delhomme an amount shy of $13 million.

But with Delhomme no longer in Carolina, the job now belongs to Matt Moore, who had received a first- and third-round tender from the Panthers.

"My wife and I are ecstatic right now," Moore said (via FoxSports.com). "I was surprised. I didn't know exactly what to expect, to be perfectly honest with you. When my agent called and told me about (the tender) I was really excited and really happy. I think it shows they have a lot of confidence in me, which is reassuring."

In seven games played, Moore completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 1,053 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.

In the month of December (with Moore starting all four games), Panthers receiver Steve Smith averaged a season-high 94.5 yards per game. In the first three months (without Moore as the starter), Smith averaged 63.3, 56.0 and 49.2 yards per game, respectively.

One of the reasons I selected Smith in the fourth round of our early 2010 fantasy football mock draft was the potential for Moore to win the starting quarterback job and Smith to be the beneficiary.



March 03, 2010

First-round tender for Brandon Marshall

The Denver Broncos have placed a first-round tender on receiver Brandon Marshall, per Mike Klis of the Denver Post, which means the Broncos would pay Marshall $2.521 million in 2010.

If another team makes an offer for Marshall, however, the Broncos would have seven days to match the offer (unlikely) or they would receive a first-round pick as compensation.

As pointed out by Pro Football Talk, if the Broncos were truly intent on retaining the services of The Beast, they would have placed a first- and third-round tender on Marshall since it would only require an extra $600,000 salary.

Yet speaking of Marshall, coach Josh McDaniels recently said (via USA Today), "I'm really fond of him -- he's a good person."

And since he said it, it must be true, right?

McDaniels benched Marshall for the season finale after Marshall arrived late for a treatment. Despite missing that game, Marshall still finished the season with 101 receptions, 1120 yards and ten touchdowns.

It was his third consecutive season with 100+ receptions and 1,100+ yards.

Although the Bears could be interested in Marshall, they don't have a first- or second-round pick in 2010, which prompted ESPN's Adam Schefter to tweet (via Yahoo!'s Shutdown Corner) that it's "not happening."

Assuming Marshall is playing somewhere other than Denver in 2010, that leaves Jabar Gaffney, who had 14 catches for 213 yards in the game that Marshall missed, Eddie Royal and Brandon Stokley as the top three wide receiver targets for quarterback Kyle Orton.



March 01, 2010

Tashard Choice would like opportunity to play more

In some ways, it's an embarrassment of riches.

Not many football teams have a third-string running back that can be an effective starter in the NFL.

I love being in Dallas, but I just know I should be playing more,” [Cowboys running back Tashard] Choice said Sunday, per Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News. “When we lose and I don't get much of a chance, I'm sick.”

That said, the Cowboys have stated that their plan is to retain the services of all three of their running backs including Choice, who has a career average of 5.3 yards per carry.

On Monday, Choice said to Calvin Watkins of ESPNDallas.com, "I only get to actually run the football when the other two guys get hurt, and I don't want the other two guys to get hurt. I want them to play well and be on top of their games."

It wouldn't surprise me to see an even split of carries between the team's other two running backs - Marion Barber III and Felix Jones - in 2010. Or even to see Jones be the featured guy over Barber.

Choice only had more than four carries in three regular-season games in 2009. On the season, Choice had a total of 64 carries for 349 yards and three touchdowns.

With the punishment that backs take and Choice's ability to produce, however, it would make sense for the Cowboys to give Choice a greater share of the workload to keep all three of their backs healthy.



February 28, 2010

Is Antonio Cromartie headed to the Motor City?

According to the Twitter status of Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune (via Pro Football Talk), Chargers cornerback Antonio "... Cromartie could be a Lion soon. Regardless, Cro has almost certainly played his last game for Chargers."

The acquisition of Cromartie could come at a bargain-basement prices.

And Cromartie, who has one year remaining on his contract, would help the Lions' pass defense (despite a post-season reluctance to mix it up against the run).

But as Tom Kowalski of MLive.com points out, Lions' starting cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Phillip Buchanon were benched at points during the season due to lack of run support.

The Lions ranked last in the NFL in points allowed (30.9 per game), passing yards allowed (265.6 per game) and total yards allowed (392.1 per game) last season.



Oakland to have QB competition

There have long been two people who haven't seen the shortcomings of quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who can throw the ball a mile: JaMarcus Russell and Raiders owner Al Davis.

When Davis fired Lane Kiffin in 2008, Davis said of Kiffin, "I realize that you did not want to draft JaMarcus Russell. He is a great player. Get over it."

Today at the NFL Scouting Combine, Raiders coach Tom Cable, who benched Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski last season, says that there will be a quarterback competition for the starting job.

"We're getting ready to start offseason and get to OTAs and minicamp and let the (quarterback) job be competed for," Cable said. "I think that's where we're at in terms of our starting quarterback. I don't think you would discount (using a pick on) that or any other position."

In 31 career games over three seasons, Russell, the overall top pick in 2007, has completed 52.1 percent of his passes and has thrown 18 career touchdowns and 23 interceptions.

Meanwhile, Bruce Gradkowski, who threw six touchdowns and only three interceptions last year, provided an "energy and vibe" to the offense beyond what the stats say.



Bills just say no to T.O. in 2010

Not surprisingly, the Buffalo Bills will not bring back 36-year-old receiver Terrell Owens in 2010, per Sal Maiorana of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.

"We wanted to inform all three players [T.O., Josh Reed and Ryan Denney] ahead of the start of the free agency period so they could begin making their plans," general manager Buddy Nix said.

After a quiet (both on and off the field) first half, Owens had a relatively productive second half catching 32 passes for 548 yards and four touchdowns in his final eight games. He finished the season with a team-high 55 receptions and 829 yards.

Some teams rumored to be potential landing spots for T.O. are the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.



Jets to release Thomas Jones?

New York Jets v Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets running back Thomas Jones was one of only three running backs to rush for over 1,400 yards in 2009. Titans RB Chris Johnson and Rams RB Steven Jackson were the other two.

This week, Jones, who turns 32 in August, will become one of three running backs to share something less fortunate in common.

With LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook being released this week by San Diego and Philadelphia, respectively, Jones is about to become the third aging running back with big (or more than the team wants to pay) salaries and/or roster bonuses to be cut, according to Rich Cimini of the NY Daily News.

Jones, who rushed for a career-high 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2009, was unwilling to restructure his contract, per Cimini. He has a $3 million roster bonus due on top of his $2.8 million salary.

In the post-season, it was rookie Shonn Greene that showed he was ready to be the featured back in the offense. In addition, Leon Washington expects to return in time for the season opener after breaking his leg last year.

One potential destination for Jones is New England, as pointed out by Cimini, which could come back to haunt the Jets.

Some other destinations that I think would make sense include Houston, who have one of the league's best pass offenses but struggled to run the ball, and San Diego, who cut LT and won't franchise Darren Sproles. And Joe Fortenbaugh of National Football Post thinks the Eagles, in addition to the Chargers, should pursue Jones when he gets released.

Without Jones to share carries and with the talented Jets' offensive line, Greene will be one of the top 10-15 running backs drafted in 2010 fantasy football drafts.

Meanwhile 2010 fantasy value for Jones largely depends on his destination. Given the right opportunity, Jones should come through with another 1,000-yard season for fantasy owners in 2010.



February 27, 2010

4.22 (or 4.27) for Trindon Holliday?

At the NFL Scouting Combine, LSU return specialist Trindon Holliday was hoping to beat Titans running back Chris Johnson's 40-yard dash time of 4.24.

ESPN's Adam Schefter tweets, "There's smoke coming off the track: LSU WR Trindon Holliday just recoreded one of fastest 40-yard dashes ever run in Indy, a blazing 4.22."

However, NFL.com says Holliday's unofficial 40-yard times are 4.27 and 4.32 seconds.

Either way, he's fast.

At LSU, Holliday finished his four-year career with 776 rushing yards and four touchdowns as well as seven career receptions for 72 yards.

At 5'5" though, he's likely to be a late-round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft and he will primarily be a return specialist at the next level.





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