Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): Week 16 DraftKings Fantasy Football Values
Fitting in higher-priced studs into your lineups requires finding values to provide some salary-cap relief. With that said, here are some value plays for Week 16 DraftKings contests (sorted by position, then salary):
Perhaps not a value in terms of absolute cost at $8,300, but Brees is my second-ranked quarterback and the fourth-most expensive option this week. So, in other words, if you're looking to pay up at the position, Brees will provide you with some relative value. Based on projected point totals using Vegas odds, no team is projected to score more points this week than the Saints, who also control their destiny if they win their final two games. Over their past nine games, the Falcons have allowed six 300-yard passers and eight quarterbacks to throw for 292-plus yards. Brees seems like a lock for the three-point scoring bonus at 300 passing yards.
QB - Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (vs. PHI), $6,100
In relief of an injured Colt McCoy, RG3 had his best outing of the season last week as he finished eighth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Getting the start this week in such a favorable matchup, it's certainly possible that he puts up another top-eight performance in a favorable matchup yet there are 16 other quarterbacks priced higher than Griffin. With RG3 injured in Week 3 when these teams first met this season, Kirk Cousins got the start and lit up the Eagles secondary for 427 yards and three scores. That said, the Eagles secondary has been consistently bad (good to opposing quarterbacks) as they have allowed 11 of them to finish as top-12 fantasy quarterbacks in their 14 games this season.
Smith is an even cheaper and safer option at quarterback than RG3 with a lower ceiling, but he's a great option this week for those looking for some salary-cap relief at the position for cash games. Although he averaged 197.3 yards per game through Week 13, Smith has thrown for 293 and 297 yards in the past two weeks, both of which are easily his highest totals of the year. And even though he has yet to throw a touchdown to a wide receiver, Smith has multiple passing touchdowns in three of his past four games. In addition, the Steelers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
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Lacy is another play that may not be cheap in absolute terms, but he's a solid foundation from which to construct your roster. Playing through his hip injury last week, Lacy has now finished as a top-six fantasy running back (PPR scoring) in six of his past seven games. During that seven-game span, Lacy has averaged 23.87 fantasy points per game with a total of 881 yards from scrimmage, 25 receptions and eight touchdowns. Facing the Bucs, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Lacy has both a high floor and a high ceiling this week.
Similar to Lacy, Anderson's high floor and ceiling makes him a great play in both cash games and tournaments. Anderson has a total of 117 touches in his past four games and has exceeded 30 touches in three of those games. Anderson has a total of 534 YFS and five touchdowns during that span. Only the Falcons and Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Bengals this season.
With difficult matchups in back-to-back weeks (Washington and Arizona are in bottom three in terms of FPA to RBs), Mason's outlook gets brighter as he faces a much more generous defense to fantasy running backs. Not only do the Giants allow the ninth-most fantasy points to rurnning backs, they allow the fourth-most on a per-touch basis (0.93). Since Week 9, Mason has averaged nearly 20 touches per game (19.29). A realistic range of DK points for Mason should fall within 15-20 points this week.
Despite having any huge games this season, Miller still has scored the 12th-most fantasy points among running backs (PPR scoring) this season. In large part, it's due to Miller's consistency. The Dolphins third-year back has finished as a top-19 fantasy running back (or better) in 10 of 14 games this season. With a plus matchup against the Vikes, Miller should once again post a top-20 performance even though he's priced outside of the top-20 running backs.
Trying to predict which Patriots running back(s) will get the most touches and production in a given week is a sure-fire way to drive yourself crazy. That said, Vereen is at least worth a roll of the dice in a GPP at his sub-$4,000 salary as Vereen should be more involved in the game plan against a tough run defense (and bad pass defense). The first time the Patriots faced the Jets (granted, that was pre-LeGarrette Blount), Vereen had his best game of the season (11/43 rushing and 5/71/2 receiving). With 28.4 fantasy points (PPR scoring), only two other backs (Matt Forte and Le'Veon Bell) scored more that week.
Although I have S-Jax ranked inside my top-20 fantasy running backs for the week, he's priced as the 38th-most expensive back. And while S-Jax is better in standard-scoring (or half-PPR like FanDuel) leagues, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his past seven games. During that span, he has averaged 16.9 touches per game with 18-plus in five of those games and has scored four touchdowns. In a high-scoring affair against the Saints, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Jackson should have no problem reaching and exceeding value this week.
Jackson has been a bit of a boom-or-bust fantasy option throughout his career and this season has been no different. To be fair, he has played with three different quarterbacks. D-Jax has finished as the WR50 (or worse) in three of his past four games. That said, I expect a performance from D-Jax closer to the outing (117 yards and a TD) he had the first time he faced his former team. Aside from the revenge factor, no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Eagles.
Only the Ravens have allowed more fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Texans this season -- and since he can't play his own defense, this is the best possible matchup for Smith. Dealing with a knee injury the past couple of weeks, Smith's production has understandably taken a hit -- two catches for 16 yards on three targets last week and no targets the previous week. That said, Smith isn't listed on the injury report this week, which indicates that his knee issue shouldn't be a problem. Before the injury, Smith had seven touchdowns in his previous seven games.
A goose egg. I had Moncrief in several GPP lineups last week and was obviously disappointed that he couldn't outscore me. One of the positives of that (when it comes to this week) is that several owners will remember last week's dud and not want to get burned again this week, which will help keep his ownership levels down. Given that T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) could potentially sit this week out, it will open up more snaps and opportunities for Moncrief.
Not so long ago, Bowe led the NFL in touchdown receptions (15 in 2010). Of course, one of the most amazing statistics of the 2014 season is the fact that none of the Chiefs receivers have a touchdown reception this year. Perhaps that changes this week (or maybe it doesn't), but Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and rank 30th in terms of efficiency. If you're in need of some salary-cap relief in a tournament, Bowe is an interesting punt play.
Kelce ended a five-game scoring drought with a touchdown last week against the Raiders, but he has still finished as a top-eight fantasy tight end in three of his past four games. On the season, Kelce has 56 catches for 747 yards and five touchdowns despite not getting as many snaps and targets as fantasy owners would like to see. Kelce should exceed value this week as a mid-priced tight end option.
Witten has finished as a top-seven fantasy tight end in four of his past seven games including last week. (And one of the times he finished outside the top seven TEs was a top-11 performance.) In addition, the Colts have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Although he doesn't possess the highest ceiling, Witten should have another productive outing this week.
In addition, check out our site's DraftKings Week 16 Cheat Sheet.
Also, check out my weekly fantasy football rankings:
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
- Week 16 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings